Vavra/Henderson/Westburg vs. Odor/Mateo/Urias

[SilverRocket]

With Urias back, Odor is the only one I really feel needs replacing. I'd call up Westburg now to replace him.

I'm happy with Mateo and Urias at this point. I would like to see Gunnar up so he gets a little experience and isn't starting next year cold, but the left side of the infield is doing fine.

If Vavra can handle the outfield, then I like him rotating between positions as a fill-in for regulars getting a day off.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Great thread.

I think we see Vavra promoted right after the All-Star break.   Arauz optioned.   Varva shares 2B with Odor with the one not playing is a pinch hitter/runner.  This will give Hyde/Elias a chance to see how Vavra plays at the majors league  level.

Stowers promotion depends on if Mancini get traded. Nevin is needed to back up 1B if Mancini is traded.

Westburg's promotion depends on how the Vavra/Odor goes.  I don't think we see Gunnar this season but they will make room for him for 2023.

Keep in mind that Westburg and Gunnar do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft.  

Injuries can open  slots.  We will not know how until they happen.

JMO

 

 

It makes no sense to promote Vavra over Westburg. He’s not in the same league, defensively or offensively. 

[ScGO's]

Hit the breaks now.

Urias is a contributor, straight up. If you look at this Baseball Reference Page, you'll see that he has just now played a seasons worth of games with the last 3 years combined, and the overall numbers are sharp.  I think its what you come to expect for Urias moving forward. .271/.338/.428. OPS+ of 112. Isn't out of the realm to see him hit 20+ HRs in a full season

Mateo is quietly hitting better in July, with a .682 OPS.  Still not great, but he's 1.8 WAR and 1.7 dWAR. That's pretty freaking solid.  My thing with Mateo is this: has ANYONE talked to him about pitch selection and/or bunting?  From what I can tell on Baseball Reference, he has attempted only 3 bunts all year with 1 in play for an out. With his speed and extremely low avg, why not bunt 1-2 times a game? If I was him, I'd be putting a ton of training into this if I wanted to prolong my MLB career. I would think Elias and Sig would be interested in testing the analytics/metrics of his bunts if he were to start trying once or twice a game.  Beyond that. he has to try and work on pitch selection. Maybe analytics can help; give him the take sign in certain counts with certain pitchers and train your self to load up and just recognize the pitch.  I'm sure they have had to have interenal talks/training with Mateo in some capacity on these topics.

Odor is the one player, leadership and all, that I think is ready to be replaced now. He's got .2 WAR and an OPS+ of 82.   His dWar is -0.1.  I say bring Tavra up. He's OBP heavy which would be nice to slide into the bottom of the line up to break up the whiffs a little bit. Maybe Tavra is avg defensively; so is Odor. You can argue that you are losing Odor's power as Tavra only has 2 HRs this season, but he's out slugging Odor with a .449 SLG at AAA vs Odor's .382 in the MLB.

I think Westburg and Henderson can season for a bit and get ready for 2023. I think a line up of

Mullins, Mancini, Santander, Mountcastle, Rutchman, Hays, Urias, Vavra, Mateo can be effective moving forward, especially if Mateo tries to make changes to his game and get on base more through bunts and BBs.

If you trade Mancini and/or Santander I think you actually call up Stowers, Diaz, and maybe even Neustrom before Westburg or Henderson. I don't see a rush to start their service clocks though as I am in the opinion of trading some of our guys as I don't think we have the pitching to make the playoffs this year. I want to play for 2023 and beyond.  I hope they make the playoffs, but I still want to see moves made to try and really hit the gas in 2023

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It makes no sense to promote Vavra over Westburg. He’s not in the same league, defensively or offensively. 

He plays more positions and if we need more of a bench role it would actually be better to have a lesser prospect who doesn't need tomolay every day.

[waroriole]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He plays more positions and if we need more of a bench role it would actually be better to have a lesser prospect who doesn't need tomolay every day.

He doesn’t play more positions that we need. He can only play 2B in the IF, and apparently doesn’t play it that well. Westburg can play anywhere in the IF, plus hit much better. Should be easy to find him 5 starts per week. 

[connja]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Great thread.

I think we see Vavra promoted right after the All-Star break.   Arauz optioned.   Varva shares 2B with Odor with the one not playing is a pinch hitter/runner.  This will give Hyde/Elias a chance to see how Vavra plays at the majors league  level.

Stowers promotion depends on if Mancini get traded. Nevin is needed to back up 1B if Mancini is traded.

Westburg's promotion depends on how the Vavra/Odor goes.  I don't think we see Gunnar this season but they will make room for him for 2023.

Keep in mind that Westburg and Gunnar do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft.  

Injuries can open  slots.  We will not know how until they happen.

JMO

 

 

agree with all of this.  Look forward to seeing Vavra in the bigs soon.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He doesn’t play more positions that we need. He can only play 2B in the IF, and apparently doesn’t play it that well. Westburg can play anywhere in the IF, plus hit much better. Should be easy to find him 5 starts per week. 

I agree, if we make the move to bring up a full time 2B or SS, Westburg would be most likely. Just not convinced yet that is the direction to go.

[seak05]

I see Vavra as separate from Westburg/Henderon. Vavra is more a utility candidate, and if he doesn't get everyday at bats, it's not a big deal. You can bring him up to replace Nevin/Aruaz/McKenna. He is also a LH bat. 

I think Westburg comes up if they decide to move on from Odor (Vavra being a LH bat helps with this scenario) or trade Urias. 

(also you don't need Nevin on the roster even if you trade Mancini, Santander has been getting practice reps at 1b and Adley played it often in the MiL, plus I believe Stowers has 1b experience as well) 

[Just Regular]

I wonder....are Gunnar and Westburg such twins that one injury to Mateo or Odor would result in BOTH of them being called up?     Double-play partners...comfort with each other is I believe a real thing to watch if we get a scenario if it is one, not both.

[waroriole]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, if we make the move to bring up a full time 2B or SS, Westburg would be most likely. Just not convinced yet that is the direction to go.

I could see calling up Vavra and sending McKenna down. 

[CharmCityHokie]

31 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I see Vavra as separate from Westburg/Henderon. Vavra is more a utility candidate, and if he doesn't get everyday at bats, it's not a big deal. You can bring him up to replace Nevin/Aruaz/McKenna. He is also a LH bat. 

I think Westburg comes up if they decide to move on from Odor (Vavra being a LH bat helps with this scenario) or trade Urias. 

(also you don't need Nevin on the roster even if you trade Mancini, Santander has been getting practice reps at 1b and Adley played it often in the MiL, plus I believe Stowers has 1b experience as well) 

I agree Vavra is seperate from Westburg/Henderson, but I can't see him as a true utility candidate. He's a 2B/CF, there isn't a ton of value in that combo riding the bench. I do think he deserves a shot, his minor league numbers are very strong, it's just he's so injury prone. Wish he at least had the arm for 3B so he could easily replace Nevin. 

[sportsfan8703]

What do people want/expect from SS?  
 

Mateo may very well finish the season with a GG, 14 HR, 40 SB. 
 

I think Mateo is a keeper at SS. We play Gunnar at 3B. Westburg at 2B. Draft Holliday. Urias is Util. Vavra is a bench player. 
 

It’s easy to just predict that players come up and put up .800 OPSs immediately. Westburg didn’t do that in AA last year upon promotion, neither did Gunnar in A+

[sportsfan8703]

What is the difference maker in the 2nd half?  Can Westburg put up enough OPS to offset Mateo’s defense?  100pts?  
 

I think Mateo has room to grow while playing GG defense. 
 

Our weakness is that Mancini, AR, Mountcastle, Santander, Mullins, and Hays, could all be having better offensive years. 
 

 

[casadeozo]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What do people want/expect from SS?  
 

Mateo may very well finish the season with a GG, 14 HR, 40 SB. 
 

I think Mateo is a keeper at SS. We play Gunnar at 3B. Westburg at 2B. Draft Holliday. Urias is Util. Vavra is a bench player. 
 

It’s easy to just predict that players come up and put up .800 OPSs immediately. Westburg didn’t do that in AA last year upon promotion, neither did Gunnar in A+

Right while hitting .190 and striking out 200 times. GG defense is not a replacement for for being below average at the plate. MLB has evolved past the Rey Ordonez of the world.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

It makes no sense to promote Vavra over Westburg. He’s not in the same league, defensively or offensively. 

I hope he's not in the same league offensively as Westburg but that's because I have high hopes for Westburg.   Vavra might be the most professional hitter out of the bunch, except maybe for Henderson.   When it comes to controlling the strike zone and pure hitting ability (contact, using the whole field), Vavra looks pretty damn good to me.   His game looks like it translates well to MLB to me.