2022 1st Round Pick Comp A (#33): Dylan Beavers - OF - (Jr) California University

[Just Regular]

Honestly if OMAR's algorithm knows anything distinctive and valuable, you'd kind of figure its outputs at this tier of player would not often align with the Law-McDaniel-Longenhagen, etc. layman's consensus.

It'll be fun if we pop Tristan Smith nonetheless.

[Jammer7]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I agree.  I like those 2 arms.  I’m sure there is a scenario where you could have had both of them, Holliday, Beavers and Porter.  after that, I don’t really care what you can put together.  Can you still have Wagner or Fabian?  Not sure.  
 

 

Yeah, those three would be around $14 million. That leaves about $3.5 million for the rest, if my rough math is close, for the remaining nine picks in the first ten rounds. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Yeah, those three would be around $14 million. That leaves about $3.5 million for the rest, if my rough math is close, for the remaining nine picks in the first ten rounds. 

Probably closer to 3.8M if they use the 825ishK extra they could have.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think the question of whether to tank several rounds of a draft for one very talented guy comes down to this:

1. Does the org have a mature farm system with depth? While the O's aren't fully there yet because the international guys haven't really arrived, I think that answer is close to a yes.

2. Do your models project you to get more value from that elite talent than from spreading the money around? I assume the O's models say no.

3. Is the spread out model a better approach to future trades where you can get elite, mature, talent through trades? I think that answer is yes.

So I'd bet the O's think they aren't necessarily skipping on that elite talent as much as building a better way to acquire it, in their own eyes.

You aren’t getting elite talent for guys drafted outside of the first few rounds, generally speaking.

[Frobby]

On 7/17/2022 at 11:57 PM, justD said:

 

I have this timed at 14.3 seconds from contact to touching home plate.   Byron Buxton's 13.85 is the fastest recorded by Statcast,   so 14.3 is pretty damned fast.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I have this timed at 14.3 seconds from contact to touching home plate.   Byron Buxton's 13.85 is the fastest recorded by Statcast,   so 14.3 is pretty damned fast.

I don’t know if Buxton can do better but I bet this kid can.  Didn’t reach full speed as quickly as possible and seemed a little off balance out of control rounding 3B.

[Paul in Virginia]

From Live Q&A today with Keith Law at "The Athletic"

 

Quote

 

Thomas Clocker C.

I read comments about O's pick Beavers having a swing that needs fixing. Sounds like the same comments when they took college bat DJ Stewart and that pick went no where. How worried should I be about Beavers ability to make the necessary adjustments to succeed? He appears to be more athletic than Stewart.

 

 

 

Quote

 

Keith Law

Totally different regime, though. I like Beavers more than Stewart at the same age, also.

 

 

 

 

 

[MarCakes21]

43 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

From Live Q&A today with Keith Law at "The Athletic"

 

 

 

We

 

 

 

Well that's an easy comment to make with 20-20 hindsight.  There's no way he thought Stewart should have been a Comp pick.

[jerios55]

On 7/19/2022 at 1:31 PM, Sports Guy said:

I would easily trade Porter for our draft picks in rounds 4-10 and probably could throw Fabian and maybe even Wagner in there too.

 

Caveat being that you really like Porter.  

Certainly doable.  Considering how often we go pitching in the early rounds (clearly not often) and how many players that they can fix (often) I don't expect we will see the punt 4-10 approach.

So I don't see a time they'll fall for a Porter or other P so much that they punt the other rounds.  

[MurphDogg]

If Beavers hit like Stewart, while being a plus defensive centerfielder, he could play in the league for a decade.

[Sports Guy]

On 7/17/2022 at 10:33 PM, Sports Guy said:

Right.  This slot is about 2.3M.  #1 was 8.8.  I’m going to predict these 2 signings will combine for around 10.2M, give or take. They should still be around 800k or so below slot values and they should be spending the other 825ishK.  So, they should have about 1.6M extra to spend as of now and that doesn’t include all the money they could save rounds 4-10.  

Looks like the first 2 picks are 10.4M, so I was close.  Still, they have saved about 800K for the first 2 signings.  Good start and potential help towards the guys picked after R10.