Rutschman vs Witt

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I was expecting a bump of this thread from Sports Guy now that Witt has turned his year around.  I'm still happy the O's took Adley.  I think Adley is figuring things out at the plate.  When he first came up, he would just sit there and watch strikes go by.  Then he would swing at strikes, but never a first pitch.  Lately, he's gotten a lot of hard hits and HR on first pitches.  When Adley gets his ideal swing/approach figured out, he'll be a monster at the plate. 

I mean, he put up a 2.3 fWAR last year at age 22.  Not like he was some garbage player and has just now starting to become good.

He has clearly elevated his game though.

[Sports Guy]

It is interesting how one move could change things.

If the Os take Witt, what do they look like now? Do they still take Henderson?  Does Witt come up and have the same effect on the team Adley seems to have?

If they take Witt and Gunnar, do they still take Holliday or do they go Jones or someone else?

Stuff like this is so fascinating to me. Really, so much can change just on one decision. It’s crazy to think about how many different directions it can cause you to go in.

I do think we should all feel like Elias would have figured it out but it’s fair to wonder if the “Adley effect” ever comes and if it doesn’t, how quickly do things turn around?

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, he put up a 2.3 fWAR last year at age 22.  Not like he was some garbage player and has just now starting to become good.

He has clearly elevated his game though.

Gunnar has already bested that at 22 with 40+ games left.  I’ll take Gunnar in OPACY over Witt 10/10.  
 

Who’s the “other C” They could have realistically drafted/acquired that would have put up Adleys #s?  
 

Witt is a fantastic player, but even in hindsight the Os played their hand perfectly.  

 

[LTO's]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What about Witt and Gunnar?  SS and third.

You could still even have Holliday and move one of them to second.

 

But...why? That doesn't make sense. Adley and then Gunnar/Holliday at SS/3B is a way better constructed team. Adley has already shown he's a 5+ fWAR catcher which is remarkably valuable. It seems like you are operating under the assumption that this year's Adley and Witt is what you can pencil in for the foreseeable future which is far from a sure thing. 

Adley is having a bit of a "down" year but is still a top 3 catcher in the game. Adley actually still has a higher OPS+, wOBA, wRC+ than Witt this year which is impressive for a catcher. The real difference between the two this year has come defensively, which is a surprise and not likely to stick, and Witt's baserunning which is undoubtedly incredible. 

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is interesting how one move could change things.

If the Os take Witt, what do they look like now? Do they still take Henderson?  Does Witt come up and have the same effect on the team Adley seems to have?

If they take Witt and Gunnar, do they still take Holliday or do they go Jones or someone else?

Stuff like this is so fascinating to me. Really, so much can change just on one decision. It’s crazy to think about how many different directions it can cause you to go in.

I do think we should all feel like Elias would have figured it out but it’s fair to wonder if the “Adley effect” ever comes and if it doesn’t, how quickly do things turn around?

At least in recent years, the general scarcity in production at catcher makes Rutschman's production much more valuable than Witt's.  From 2018 to now there have been about 50% more WAR produced by shortstops than catchers.  Now this is somewhat cyclical; during Posey/Molina/Mauer's hayday there was more parity, but right now it's really hard to get production out of catcher.

[Frobby]

I always felt that I wouldn’t stress about whether Witt (or someone else)  turned out to be better than Adley, so long as Adley turned out to be an all-star caliber player.   Adley deservedly made the all-star team and our team is in first place.  I’m satisfied with that.    Now, I am a little disappointed that Adley has slipped from his 2022 performance, particularly defensively, but the team performance with him as the backstop keeps me from fretting too much.  

When we saw Witt a few months ago, i was impressed with what I saw.  The numbers weren’t quite there at the time, but the tools were quite evident.  
 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, LTO's said:

But...why? That doesn't make sense. Adley and then Gunnar/Holliday at SS/3B is a way better constructed team. Adley has already shown he's a 5+ fWAR catcher which is remarkably valuable. It seems like you are operating under the assumption that this year's Adley and Witt is what you can pencil in for the foreseeable future which is far from a sure thing. 

Adley is having a bit of a "down" year but is still a top 3 catcher in the game. Adley actually still has a higher OPS+, wOBA, wRC+ than Witt this year which is impressive for a catcher. The real difference between the two this year has come defensively, which is a surprise and not likely to stick, and Witt's baserunning which is undoubtedly incredible. 

Witt is also 3 years younger, which is obviously a big difference as well.

[Oriole1940]

Second guessing is a time waster but accomplishes nothing.  I would rather have Adley and Holiday than Witt, but of course we do not know how Holiday will do in the Bigs yet.  The Orioles turnaround coincided with Adleys joining the team.  Never in my life have I seen a club turn on a dime like the Orioles did when Adley joined up.  In the most difficult position of all?   Catcher.  A catcher like him is like having a coach between the lines  during the game.  Huge for Pitchers.  A real steading influence. And while he is putting up real decent numbers now, I personally believe he will do even better offensively next year.  He is so intelligent.   Go Adley and Orioles.

[Aristotelian]

What a crazy good draft that was. Rutschman, Witt, Carroll, Kirby, and even Gunnar and Jung would all be solid outcomes for 1/1 picks. I believe our guy currently leads them all in WAR although Witt and Carroll are catching up. I'd still be inclined to take Adley if we redrafted today. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Second guessing is a time waster but accomplishes nothing.  I would rather have Adley and Holiday than Witt, but of course we do not know how Holiday will do in the Bigs yet.  The Orioles turnaround coincided with Adleys joining the team.  Never in my life have I seen a club turn on a dime like the Orioles did when Adley joined up.  In the most difficult position of all?   Catcher.  A catcher like him is like having a coach between the lines  during the game.  Huge for Pitchers.  A real steading influence. And while he is putting up real decent numbers now, I personally believe he will do even better offensively next year.  He is so intelligent.   Go Adley and Orioles.

Adley and Holliday or Witt is not the equation. The Os still get another player there.

[Roll Tide]

On 7/18/2022 at 11:47 PM, Filmstudy said:

Very fair point.

I think it may also be possible Witt has to move towards the DH end (do not read as all the way) of the defensive spectrum.  Adley is staying at catcher for a long time.

You hope, it’s catching so nothing is guaranteed. He’s moving good now and you can see it on the base paths. But, it will depend how long the knees hold up.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt is also 3 years younger, which is obviously a big difference as well.

He’s actually about 2 years 4 months younger, having been a relatively old member of his HS class.  He’s more than a year older than Gunnar and they were drafted out of HS in the same draft.  

[sportsfan8703]

It's actually better for us that Adley was a refined college player versus a younger HS bat, given that Witt and Adley haven't signed extensions.  At the end of next season, the Royals have to consider trading Witt if they can't resign him.  

[NCRaven]

On 9/9/2022 at 8:45 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

Everything in baseball is true talent overlaid with Gaussian noise.

There's some Gausmanian noise, as well.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol…as if that’s the only C option.  

You've got to isolate some factors to be able to make some comparisons.  Otherwise, it's an endless multiverse where the grass can be as green as we dream compared to today's scorched earth.