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All of what you posted is why you have to take both dWAR and fWAR with a grain of salt when it comes to valuing defense. OAA strictly gives you how good a player is at his position vs other players at his position. There is no guessing involved. Now could OAA receive some tweaking, especially with infielders, I think so. I don't think OAA is perfect by any means, but let's say Santana did save his team 12 runs and let's say a SS was at 0 runs saved. Why should he be penalized for playing a less stressful position? In the end he did save runs vs a SS that didn't save or lose runs. I guess in the end you look at all the defensive metrics (OAA, dWAR, DRS) and then make your opinion based off them. I also use my scouting eye and watching most of the games, I'd say Cowser is an above average defensive outfielder with plus arm strength and way below average accuracy. -
By Just Regular · Posted
Burnes and Eflin were fantastic keeping the team moving forward in a year Felix, Bradish and Grayson were mostly gone. It is fuzzy for me if you combine Elias' team's results in the cases of Albert Suarez and Trevor Rogers if that's a good job or a bad job. Some talk about people like Pivetta, but I don't see a ton of April/May/June demand. Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Povich and Suarez leave Rogers, McDermott and Young 6/7/8 already. Are those guys ever going to pitch? Povich and Suarez showed enough in September it seems worth it to see April. We rarely see a decision Elias doesn't like to defer, and the first half of 2025 will give information how the roster needs to be managed. How strong is Felix? What setbacks do Bradish and Wells have? Can Grayson hold up more than 2 straight months? Elias is building a body of work he'll win the bids for Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin when necessary, but I don't think this winter is one of those times. -
Lugo is pretty underrated honestly. -
OAA and dWAR are two measure that people use to determine if a player is a good defensive player or not. They absolutely can be mentioned when talking defense. They both measure the defensive ability of a player, though they do it differently. Acting like it some kind of horror to mention them together is one of the more ridiculous stances I've ever seen you take here. NOBODY said they measure the exact same thing and the EXACT same way, but they absolutely are two measures people use to determine if a player is good defensively. OAA shows Cowser to be a well above average defensive outfielder while dWAR shows Cowser to be more average. I think OAA in this case absolutely is a better indicator of Cowser's defensive ability.
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Cowser has not exactly been great down the stretch this year. That WPA is from his unclutchness. Saying that, Gil has not exactly been a world beater his last two months of the season either. Gil also gets the New York bonus from some in the media so I still think he'll get the nod. But maybe Cowser can pull it off despite the K's and unclutchness.
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By Aristotelian · Posted
1. It's not too hard to cherry pick guys who had success in hindsight. The problem is picking those guys in advance. Not sure what your point is here. Yes, it would suck losing to a pitcher like Lugo but maybe Danny Coulombe gets some big outs or Ramon Urias is the series MVP. 2. Last year we choked. Hope it's different this year. Also let's not forget the opponent matters. Sometimes you run into a buzzsaw, it happens. 3. We have all the pieces necessary to win a championship but there are 11 other teams and it's hard to win the WS. Yes, we have weaknesses. If I had to guess, we will beat KC but fall short of the championship. Whatever happens, go O's. -
Can't see them sitting Cowser. He hasn't sat much against lefties all year.
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