When we "lift off", who should they be trying to acquire?

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Kim Ng wants a true CFer.  Bowden has talked about this a lot on the radio, how it’s something she has been after.

Mullins to the Marlins still makes a ton of sense.  If we could do some kind of deal sending say Mullins, Haskin and Urias to the Marlins for Lopez and a guy like Elder and perhaps another piece, I think that’s a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides.

I would also still be trying to get Meyer, who perhaps the Marlins are more likely to deal now that he had TJ surgery and will be out next year.

Out of all the current OF options, I feel like Mullins is the guy to keep. I’m not sure that the Marlins would have much interest in Hays though. I also don’t know when they view their targeted window of contention, so the timeline might not make much sense. But if they’re offered something along the lines of Hays and Cowser, they might do it. It’d be a short term and long term CF fix for them. But then again, it’s only 2 years of Lopez so I doubt Elias trades any decent prospect right now. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

47 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Syndergaard starts

2017 - 7

2018 - 25

2019 - 32

2020 - 2

2021 - 16

2022 - 15 (so far)

That's scary to me for a guy that doesn't have elite stuff anymore.

He's been fine this year, physically and performance-wise. Even with his stuff not being as electric as it was pre-TJS, he's been successful. He knows what to do with what he has and sometimes that's better than just having pure stuff, so if he could be had for something like 3 years/$55ish million, or maybe 4 years/$70ish million with an opt-out in the middle, he's the guy I would pursue.

Plus the merch arm of the organization could probably a boatload of cash selling "Thorioles" shirts  

[CaptainRedbeard]

I'm interested to see how hard Elias is going to lean into the competitive advantage of lefty/switch hitters and lefty pitchers (given the wall and likely banning of the shift next year), and the organizational philosophy toward swing decisions/plate discipline.  Mountcastle and Hays in particular, and to a lesser degree Urias and Westburg, don't fit the archetype but are still cheap/valuable players.

SP FA: Manaea probably checks the most boxes as lefty, young, and potentially in our price range given he's not a TOR type, but there's otherwise a lot of options for vet pitchers on shorter deals. Rodon is the guy to dream on IMO but he'll have a lot of demand and a very risky injury profile, so I don't think the O's will be in on him.

SP Trade: If they want to go load up on lefties, Mountcastle and Hays are trade pieces for a SP, along with one of Urias/Westburg (one of whom should be moved regardless given the IF logjam).  MIL may be a team to target - they have a lot of SP and with the Hader trade have shown they are interested in ML pieces to turnover the roster as consistently competitive without rebuilding. Burnes and Woodruff will have only 2 years of control left and Peralta is signed a nice contract with options through 2026.  Pretty much no chance we can get any of them without MIL demanding GRod/Henderson, which we shouldn't do, but maybe a package of Mountcastle/Hays/Hall/Westburg + more 45/40+ FV MiLs is competitive. Hard to predict trade partners, but we have a lot of ammunition to swing one SP trade. 

1B: Josh Bell could be the target if we trade Mountcastle, he checks the boxes as a switch hitter with plate discipline. He'll be 30 but he has the contact skills and eye that will age well. Otherwise, Rizzo and Mancini are FA fallback options.

Extensions: Adley is the obvious candidate for a mega deal to buy out a couple years of control. Gunnar would be next, probably after the 2023 season to see how he adapts to ML pitching.  Whichever SP they trade for is a possibility to throw some money at, depending on the years of control remaining.  Mullins is another candidate if they want to commit to him. Santander is probably an unlikely option given he's not particularly valuable, but I could see them liking him as a switch hitter DH with OF (and maybe 1B) flexibility for something cheap over 2 years with an option or affordable guaranteed 3rd year.

"Lefty" Scenario: This won't happen unless "liftoff" really means they're willing to spend big in FA, but if they go all-in on three lefty big names at the top of the market (Rodon, Manaea, Bell) and deal righty hitters for a SP, we could have the below lineup by 2023 midseason.  Three switch hitters means our top 7 batters could come from the left side against RHP and still alternate lefty/righty against LHP.  They definitely should have the payroll flexibility to do it, as they could sign those three free agents and dish out a bunch of extensions, and still be around $100M-$120M payroll for the next few years, with the FAs coming off the books as homegrown players get more expensive.

CF Mullins

C Rutschman

3B Henderson

1B Bell

LF Cowser

DH Santander

RF Stowers

2B Urias/Westburg

SS Mateo

Util Vavra

 

SP Rodon

SP Manaea

SP Trade SP

SP Rodriguez

SP Means

AAA SP depth with options / RP converts (if not traded): Wells, Hall, Bradish, Kremer, Watkins, Rom

RP: Same guys as now, plus Voth (no options)

[tabletop]

1) No, there is way too much talent in the system at SS to spend big on Correa. Jorge Mateo has a higher fWAR and bWAR than him this year. I don't think Mateo is better I'm just illustrating that they already have a fine SS. Upgrading at SS really won't be a big boost and long term won't help either.

2) They seem to really like Santander as he bats in the middle of the order and they keep not trading him. I would think Stowers at the very least should start the year on the big league club but who knows. Phillips and McKenna are pretty good options as the 4th outfielder. Elias met with Mullins so I doubt he is going anywhere. I think they should trade Hays and Santander but my guess is they'll only trade Hays or Stowers for pitching. Personally, I'd start the year off with Stowers, Mullins, and platoon Philips/McKenna until Cowser is ready.

3) I think Mateo, Mountcastle, and Henderson will be your everyday starters. Westburg, Urias, Vavra will mix in with 2B, DH, etc.. At least one of them should be traded for pitching maybe two.

4) My best guess is they'll be trying to sign one or two starters for 10-15mil a season at 2-4 years. I like Clevinger, Eflin, Manaea, and Perez as guys that might sign around that but I have no idea what any of them will get. If they exercise Lyles' option or just resign him they could have a pretty solid rotation next year. Nothing amazing but could be like those Duquette teams where they have 4 or 5 guys that don't kill you or let the games get away from them.

5) I would rather trade Hays + and infielder and maybe a prospect or two for a Lopez type vs trading Mullins. Mullins has a better track record than Hays does IMO. He obviously isn't the 30/30 guy that he was last year but he did show he can reach his ceiling. Hays seems to always be bothered by some sort of injury. Does Hays, Urias, and a bottom top 10 type of prospect get it done? I doubt it, they'll probably want Westburg, Hall, or Mayo. They seem to really like Westburg and Henderson together so I'm not sure if they pull the trigger on Hays + Westburg or not.

That would leave you with say Lopez, Manaea, Wells, Rodriguez, and then Watkins, Kremer, Bradish, Hall, whoever can fight it out for the 5th spot. What I expect to happen is they'll sign or trade for one starter, bring back Lyles, have Wells and Rodriguez in the rotation, and let Watkins start again. Then have Kremer and Bradish compete for the 5th spot until they are ready to bring up Hall.

[jubbyjubb]

We need to wait and see what Mateo does offensively the rest of the year. We always hear about his work ethic and the amount of time he puts in so I want to see if his last 18 games are just a hot streak or something closer to what he can do.

Power won't play as much in OPACY so I would look at Turner in comparison to Correa. Turner likely won't cost as much and he could probably be had for a shorter contract, granted he is two years older. He may be more versatile as well since he has played some 2B. I could see him in the #2 hole adding more speed to get Adley better pitches to hit as he settles into the heart of the lineup.

IT might seem crazy to sign a middle infielder with the talent we have in the minors but this would just give you depth to trade away to acquire pitching. Westburg likely will have his highest value this offseason and he is the one who I would trade due to his streakiness, low walks and high K's. It looks like teams may have made an adjustment after his hot start at AAA as in his last 112 AB's he is hitting .196 with 35 K's.

  

[oriole]

17 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I'm interested to see how hard Elias is going to lean into the competitive advantage of lefty/switch hitters and lefty pitchers (given the wall and likely banning of the shift next year), and the organizational philosophy toward swing decisions/plate discipline.  Mountcastle and Hays in particular, and to a lesser degree Urias and Westburg, don't fit the archetype but are still cheap/valuable players.

SP FA: Manaea probably checks the most boxes as lefty, young, and potentially in our price range given he's not a TOR type, but there's otherwise a lot of options for vet pitchers on shorter deals. Rodon is the guy to dream on IMO but he'll have a lot of demand and a very risky injury profile, so I don't think the O's will be in on him.

SP Trade: If they want to go load up on lefties, Mountcastle and Hays are trade pieces for a SP, along with one of Urias/Westburg (one of whom should be moved regardless given the IF logjam).  MIL may be a team to target - they have a lot of SP and with the Hader trade have shown they are interested in ML pieces to turnover the roster as consistently competitive without rebuilding. Burnes and Woodruff will have only 2 years of control left and Peralta is signed a nice contract with options through 2026.  Pretty much no chance we can get any of them without MIL demanding GRod/Henderson, which we shouldn't do, but maybe a package of Mountcastle/Hays/Hall/Westburg + more 45/40+ FV MiLs is competitive. Hard to predict trade partners, but we have a lot of ammunition to swing one SP trade. 

1B: Josh Bell could be the target if we trade Mountcastle, he checks the boxes as a switch hitter with plate discipline. He'll be 30 but he has the contact skills and eye that will age well. Otherwise, Rizzo and Mancini are FA fallback options.

Extensions: Adley is the obvious candidate for a mega deal to buy out a couple years of control. Gunnar would be next, probably after the 2023 season to see how he adapts to ML pitching.  Whichever SP they trade for is a possibility to throw some money at, depending on the years of control remaining.  Mullins is another candidate if they want to commit to him. Santander is probably an unlikely option given he's not particularly valuable, but I could see them liking him as a switch hitter DH with OF (and maybe 1B) flexibility for something cheap over 2 years with an option or affordable guaranteed 3rd year.

"Lefty" Scenario: This won't happen unless "liftoff" really means they're willing to spend big in FA, but if they go all-in on three lefty big names at the top of the market (Rodon, Manaea, Bell) and deal righty hitters for a SP, we could have the below lineup by 2023 midseason.  Three switch hitters means our top 7 batters could come from the left side against RHP and still alternate lefty/righty against LHP.  They definitely should have the payroll flexibility to do it, as they could sign those three free agents and dish out a bunch of extensions, and still be around $100M-$120M payroll for the next few years, with the FAs coming off the books as homegrown players get more expensive.

CF Mullins

C Rutschman

3B Henderson

1B Bell

LF Cowser

DH Santander

RF Stowers

2B Urias/Westburg

SS Mateo

Util Vavra

 

SP Rodon

SP Manaea

SP Trade SP

SP Rodriguez

SP Means

AAA SP depth with options / RP converts (if not traded): Wells, Hall, Bradish, Kremer, Watkins, Rom

RP: Same guys as now, plus Voth (no options)

This type of off-season would be a dream. I mean that it’s be amazing IMO but unlikely to happen. That is a very competitive team you’ve listed. I think if you remove the Rodon signing then it’s a lot more realistic though. Wells is still in the SP picture and Hall could still go either way. So I don’t think they’re going to handcuff themselves to too many expensive pieces. But a rotation of Manaea, Wells, Rodriguez, Means/Hall, and whoever Hays and Mountcastle are traded for is still a really good rotation. 
 

I think the trade Mountcastle and sign Bell is a bit too aggressive for how Elias has been working but I’d support it, assuming Bell doesn’t cost something dumb which he might. 

[Moose Milligan]

Extend Rutschman for stupid money.

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, oriole said:

This type of off-season would be a dream. I mean that it’s be amazing IMO but unlikely to happen. That is a very competitive team you’ve listed. I think if you remove the Rodon signing then it’s a lot more realistic though. Wells is still in the SP picture and Hall could still go either way. So I don’t think they’re going to handcuff themselves to too many expensive pieces. But a rotation of Manaea, Wells, Rodriguez, Means/Hall, and whoever Hays and Mountcastle are traded for is still a really good rotation. 
 

I think the trade Mountcastle and sign Bell is a bit too aggressive for how Elias has been working but I’d support it, assuming Bell doesn’t cost something dumb which he might. 

Agree with this. I think Manaea or Rodon would be enough to solidify the rotation along with Grayson, Means, Wells, and Hall plus other internal options. 

If you trade Mountcastle, I don't think we need to sign a 1B. You could slide Urias over to 1B. Adley can also play there as well as Vavra. Urias and Vavra could be options at 2B if Westburg struggles. Or maybe Mayo takes 1B eventually if everyone else is working out. 

[Sports Guy]

Rodon is way too much of an injury risk.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Rodon is way too much of an injury risk.  

He's signed through next year, I believe.  Otherwise, he might at least by someone who's both good and attainable.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He's signed through next year, I believe.  Otherwise, he might at least by someone who's both good and attainable.

There is a player option I believe.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a player option I believe.  

Could be.  No mention of it on BaseballReference.   2/44. signed through 2023.  Free Agent 2024

 

Rodon put pen to paper on a two-year contract with the San Francisco Giants last month, which is worth a total of 44 million dollars. The contract includes an opt-out during this season in the event that he accumulates a total of 110 innings pitched throughout the season.Apr 27, 2022

He's at 123 innings so not sure how that works but he probably is a FA this offseason then.   24 starts last year.  21 already this year.   Never more than 165 in any one season.   Still, he's very good.   All pitchers are risky but he's got ACE type of stuff.

Edited August 5, 2022 by RZNJ

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a player option I believe.  

 

Just now, RZNJ said:

Could be.  No mention of it on BaseballReference.   2/44. signed through 2023.  Free Agent 2024

He can opt-out after the season and is widely expected to, which is why SF not trading him came as a bit of a surprise.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Orioles Jim said:

Hey, while we’re dreaming, 3 pages in and no one has brought up Aaron Judge?

*ducks*

My dream for Aaron Judge is that some team (not us) goes nuts and pays him WAY more than he’ll be worth.   He’s a great player having a career year at the perfect time (for him).  He’ll end up getting 3-5 years more than his actual productive life.  

[oriole]

39 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agree with this. I think Manaea or Rodon would be enough to solidify the rotation along with Grayson, Means, Wells, and Hall plus other internal options. 

If you trade Mountcastle, I don't think we need to sign a 1B. You could slide Urias over to 1B. Adley can also play there as well as Vavra. Urias and Vavra could be options at 2B if Westburg struggles. Or maybe Mayo takes 1B eventually if everyone else is working out. 

It’d be nice to have a power bat in there somewhere, Mountcastle is supposed to be that guy and he very well might be but the more I watch him, the less inclined I am think so. He is streaky though, so ask me again when he’s not an automatic out lol

 

Mayo could be a good trade piece, he isn’t going to make it in a crowded OF or 3B farm system so his best bet is 1B or DH in this organization. That may be where he’ll end up anyways but it does limit his value to the Orioles a bit. It makes him expendable

Edited August 5, 2022 by oriole