When we "lift off", who should they be trying to acquire?

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's been fine this year, physically and performance-wise. Even with his stuff not being as electric as it was pre-TJS, he's been successful.

The drop in velocity is concerning for me.  And the sinker isn't moving much either.  He's evolving a bit as a pitcher, so he's not a lost cause.  I think his name will bump the contract beyond the performance/risk profile.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

Yeah, Rodon is going to opt out unless he has an injury that would last into next season.  It will be very interesting to see his contract because he's been an elite SP in 2021-22, but has tons of past injuries.  Not a lot of precedent for it.  It's a similar situation with Degrom, but Rodon is much younger so he'll likely want a longer deal.  I don't think the Orioles would be in on either of them because of the injury risk, it's going to be the big market teams that can stomach the possibility of losing that type of guy for extended periods.

They really only need to acquire 2 SP, either through trade or FA. But they could easily have the payroll flexibility to add 3 if one of them is cost controlled via trade.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

The drop in velocity is concerning for me.  And the sinker isn't moving much either.  He's evolving a bit as a pitcher, so he's not a lost cause.  I think his name will bump the contract beyond the performance/risk profile.  

Both of those things may sort themselves out some as he gets further away from his TJS, and if they do, someone may get a steal on his next contract, but even if his 2022 form is his new norm, that's still a pretty solid guy to have in the middle of your rotation. Plus Holt and Elias' analytics guys might be able to get a bit more out of him than some other organizations.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

1B: Josh Bell could be the target if we trade Mountcastle, he checks the boxes as a switch hitter with plate discipline. He'll be 30 but he has the contact skills and eye that will age well. Otherwise, Rizzo and Mancini are FA fallback options.

I could get behind:

• Trading Mounty and Hays (or Mullins) for an SP
  • This is a really good fit for Miami too.  
• Signing Josh Bell (who shockingly already has his photo on B-Ref updated with a SDP hat!)

Bell's splits play better fit for the OPACY plus his OBP and OPS+ really extend the hitting line up.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agree with this. I think Manaea or Rodon would be enough to solidify the rotation along with Grayson, Means, Wells, and Hall plus other internal options. 

If you trade Mountcastle, I don't think we need to sign a 1B. You could slide Urias over to 1B. Adley can also play there as well as Vavra. Urias and Vavra could be options at 2B if Westburg struggles. Or maybe Mayo takes 1B eventually if everyone else is working out. 

Even if Urias (or Westburg) could play a ++ defensive 1B, it would waste almost all of their value of being able to handle a much more valuable defensive position at 2B.  They both project similarly as ~100 wRC+ bats with decent pop to make up for a bit lackluster K/BB rates.  That's a decent player as an average/plus defensive 2B (or 3B), but would be a horrible 1B even if extraordinary defensively there.

If they trade Mountcastle, they're adding a 1B from outside the organization.  Maybe Stowers or Santander can play there, but I don't think you go into a season banking on them to pick that up. And Stowers could be a pretty solid defensive OF by the sound of it.

Mayo could eventually be a 1B but he's got an 80 grade arm and good athleticism, so he's going to either stick at 3B (perhaps unlikely, but if so he's quality trade bait) or get tried in RF before ending up at 1B. He's still likely looking at a 2024 debut based on his level/age now, and is going need to have spent some time falling down the defensive spectrum before we consider him at 1B.

[Orioles Jim]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My dream for Aaron Judge is that some team (not us) goes nuts and pays him WAY more than he’ll be worth.   He’s a great player having a career year at the perfect time (for him).  He’ll end up getting 3-5 years more than his actual productive life.  

I know it means nothing, but I just got back from a bachelor party where almost every guy was from NY and a diehard Yankee fan, and they all said to a person that they believe Judge is good as gone after this year.  

[foxfield]

Trevor Bauer who has been idle for 2 years is a FA at year end?  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

I know it means nothing, but I just got back from a bachelor party where almost every guy was from NY and a diehard Yankee fan, and they all said to a person that they believe Judge is good as gone after this year.  

I mean, I would have said the exact same thing as Chris Davis approached free agency and just look at how that ended up  

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I could get behind:

• Trading Mounty and Hays (or Mullins) for an SP
  • This is a really good fit for Miami too.  
• Signing Josh Bell (who shockingly already has his photo on B-Ref updated with a SDP hat!)

Bell's splits play better fit for the OPACY plus his OBP and OPS+ really extend the hitting line up.  

Yeah, Bell fits like a glove. I could see them being all over him as a FA. While the priority is definitely going to be SP, if they want spend to improve our offense at all, there really aren't many defensive needs so they could just go for the bat. But that only happens if they open up a spot in the projected lineup - which could happen by Stowers floundering in his ML debut this year, or (hopefully) by dealing either Mountcastle or Hays.

Bell's having a great year so I fear the bidding on him could go out of the Orioles' price range, particularly in terms of guaranteed years.  It's not a good bet to give 1B/DH types guarantees deep into their 30s and he's turning 30 in a couple days.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Trevor Bauer who has been idle for 2 years is a FA at year end?  

That would be enough to get me to question staying a fan and that is from someone who was fine with steroids, sign stealing and spider tack.

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would be enough to get me to question staying a fan and that is from someone who was fine with steroids, sign stealing and spider tack.

I am not advocating.  However, the guy is gonna pitch somewhere and he was never charged and never settled.  And he has spent two years suspended.  Even Jim LaFlore got a chance out of prison to play in Detroit.  I could see Bauer having interest in a place like Baltimore who might be in for a nice ride.

Besides the media already hates the Orioles and Elias.

I am not advocating, but the discussion about what the Orioles need is centered on starting Pitching.  Much of which will be very expensive for the O's.  

Bauer is arguably the best available arm and is likely to be affordable and you would not have to trade anyone.

I am not advocating, but if we are looking for talent everywhere, this is a tire you at least have to kick no?

Edit:  Bauer can opt out at the end of 22.  LA doesnt want him.  So technically not a FA yet.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by foxfield

[CaptainRedbeard]

If the Orioles go the trade Mullins route, that also matches great with the Brewers.  With 2 years of control on Burnes and Woodruff, MIL is likely going to be considering whether to extend one (probably Burnes) and trade the other, and CF is one of their weakest positions.

This is how Fangraphs ranked trade values ahead of the deadline:

23: Corbin Burnes

32: Freddy Peralta

33: Cedric Mullins

35: Brandon Woodruff

Honorable Mention: Pablo Lopez (he was 49 the prior year, and "easily could have made the list" (i.e. top 50) this year, "but was just short of the mark").

Shane Bieber (#30, 2 yrs of control) is another potential target. CLE has shown the willingness to deal star players in the past.

Beyond that, there's also a number of SP on contending teams in the same range with 2-3 years of control that I don't expect to be available: Logan Webb (25), Framber Valdez (28), Max Fried (36), Dylan Cease (39). Maybe ARI becomes willing to listen on Zac Gallen (45), but he still has 3 years of control.

[RarityFlaherty]

28 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Besides the media already hates the Orioles and Elias.

Who else hates us besides Buster Olney? I don’t pay attention to much media, but he’s the only one I see consistently hating on us. 
 

Either way, I’d rather they hate us for Elias’ rebuilding the team, than bringing in a guy like Bauer. I really don’t care about their opinions on the rebuild. The more successful we are, the more they look like idiots. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Thinking about this has made me realize why the Orioles may have acquired Phillips, which was a head scratcher for sure.  It's not for this year, but for depth for the start of next season.  If they trade Mullins or Hays, they'll need somebody to cover the LH side of an OF platoon with McKenna until Cowser is ready (with Stowers/Santander filling the other OF and DH spots).  If Mullins is the one dealt, that person preferably needs to cover CF, otherwise they'll need to play Hays there.

Vavra could play this role given his CF experience (thankfully), so we wouldn't need to suffer through Brett Phillips indefinitely until Cowser arrives.  But if they trade Urias or Westburg and are planning on leaving Henderson down until late April/May for service time reasons, Vavra will be playing 2B (with Urias/Westburg at 3B) until they call up Henderson.  

Phillips is terrible, but I can see preferring him to McKenna against RHP.  So there is some small sliver of time where he could be seen as adding value if they deal an OF this offseason.  After that, he sure seems redundant with McKenna as a backup CF/pinch runner that can't hit, whereas McKenna is actually more valuable as a bench bat from the right side.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Even if Urias (or Westburg) could play a ++ defensive 1B, it would waste almost all of their value of being able to handle a much more valuable defensive position at 2B.  They both project similarly as ~100 wRC+ bats with decent pop to make up for a bit lackluster K/BB rates.  That's a decent player as an average/plus defensive 2B (or 3B), but would be a horrible 1B even if extraordinary defensively there.

If they trade Mountcastle, they're adding a 1B from outside the organization.  Maybe Stowers or Santander can play there, but I don't think you go into a season banking on them to pick that up. And Stowers could be a pretty solid defensive OF by the sound of it.

Mayo could eventually be a 1B but he's got an 80 grade arm and good athleticism, so he's going to either stick at 3B (perhaps unlikely, but if so he's quality trade bait) or get tried in RF before ending up at 1B. He's still likely looking at a 2024 debut based on his level/age now, and is going need to have spent some time falling down the defensive spectrum before we consider him at 1B.

For sure, 1B is not optimal for Urias, but neither is pushing him to the bench. Yes, he could be traded but you'd have to get value back. Bell is interesting but I still have PTSD from Davis. I just don't think 30 yo 1B is a good use of dollars.