Seth Johnson 2022 (Scouting report)

[Tony-OH]

I had a chance to finally go watch some Seth Johnson starts this season prior to his TJ surgery. The first thing that jumps at you is the velocity where he can keep mid-90s into the 5th inning (the deepest I saw him) while touching 97. While he can get some swings and misses up in the zone, I was surprised at how often that pitch is barreled up by High-A hitters when he didn't get it into the upper portion of the zone. It's a pretty true pitch but I'm guessing he doesn't have a very high spin rate because hitters seem to track it well. His fastball reminds me of Kyle Bradish's.

His slider, which can vary in speeds from 80-85 is his best pitch and his strikeout pitch. He uses it well low and away but because of the vertical movement he can get, he can use low in the zone pretty much anywhere across the zone.. His curveball has similar shape than his slider but comes in at 72-75 so that pairs well with the slider.

The biggest yellow flag for me though was I didn't see him throw one changeup, not even to lefties. When he needed an offspeed pitch to lefties his pitch was the down and in slider to them. While his two offspeed pitches play, it would be nice to see him add a usable changeup to help him defend himself better against lefties who slashed .303/.395/.697/1.092 off him.

When the trade was announced I heard he was the 4th or 6th best Tampa prospect and was a mid-rotation prospect, but I'll be honest and say I have concerns about his fastball getting barreled too often and a lack of changeup.

Obviously we won't see him until maybe next July on the mound, but I hope as they rehab him they work on his adding a changeup or he carries a pretty high reliever risk for me.

I'll be honest, I expected more from the reports that I heard. While the arm was good, he's still a pretty raw pitcher that may take a little more time even after his recovery.

[Jim'sKid26]

Tony, I have often wondered why pitchers who throw 4 seam FB with only average spin rates aren't encouraged to throw 2 seam fastballs. My understanding is that while 4 seamers work well against the new uppercut swings we are seeing taught these days, you have to have a pretty high spin rate on that pitch to consistently keep it off the barrel. Interestingly, I've heard that very low spin rates can actually be as effective as high spin rates if thrown to different parts of the strike zone. 

So if you are a guy who can throw pretty hard but have an average, or below average, spin rate on your 4 seamer; why not see if you can be effective throwing a hard 2 seamer with a bit more tilt on the horizontal axis. Am I off base here?

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Tony, I have often wondered why pitchers who throw 4 seam FB with only average spin rates aren't encouraged to throw 2 seam fastballs. My understanding is that while 4 seamers work well against the new uppercut swings we are seeing taught these days, you have to have a pretty high spin rate on that pitch to consistently keep it off the barrel. Interestingly, I've heard that very low spin rates can actually be as effective as high spin rates if thrown to different parts of the strike zone. 

So if you are a guy who can throw pretty hard but have an average, or below average, spin rate on your 4 seamer; why not see if you can be effective throwing a hard 2 seamer with a bit more tilt on the horizontal axis. Am I off base here?

Tony’s review of Johnson made me go research Chris Holt a bit.  
And your comments here seem like the exact type of questioning convention that Holt has made a name for himself around.  Holt is big on individualized development plans for pitchers.  I bet he has a plan.
Johnson has three gears with a mid-90, a mid-80, and a mid-70 pitch.  That messes with hitter timing.  Who knows what that plan is but if Means’ changeup got better with Holt, then maybe that’s part of the path forward?
 

[seak05]

Johnson was a position player in college right? That might be part of the "rawness"

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Johnson was a position player in college right? That might be part of the "rawness"

Yes and yes.  At least that’s part of the hope/projection!

[linedrive]

I see Johnson made his first start since having Tommy John Surgery last year, and he had a nice debut to his 2023 season Friday night, pitching just one inning, giving up one hit, no runs and struck out two. Hopefully he'll stay healthy, make some good progress, and give us something to talk about in the off season.

[scarey1999]

This was great to see. I would expect to have him ready for the show after 2/3 months of working up through minor league game action next year.

It is good Elias, Sig and co. are getting some data on him as we close out this season, so they know what they’re working with and can have him focus on certain areas in the offseason. Health being the priority, of course. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by scarey1999

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

This was great to see. I would expect to have him ready for the show after 2/3 months of working up through minor league game action next year.

I don’t understand where this is coming from.  Johnson has never pitched above high A, and barely pitched there (27 innings).   So he’s going to miss over a year, and then just jump to the majors after 2/3 months next year?

I think there will be some pressure to move Johnson along, since we’ll be burning one of his options, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he makes it as far as Norfolk at some point in 2024.

On a related point, did/will we have to use an option on Johnson for 2023?  He’s been on the 60-day IL most of the year and is in rehab now, but I guess we’ll need to option him in mid-Sept. when his rehab time is up?  And will we need to boot someone from the 40-man roster then?

[scarey1999]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand where this is coming from.  Johnson has never pitched above high A, and barely pitched there (27 innings).   So he’s going to miss over a year, and then just jump to the majors after 2/3 months next year?

I think there will be some pressure to move Johnson along, since we’ll be burning one of his options, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he makes it as far as Norfolk at some point in 2024.

On a related point, did/will we have to use an option on Johnson for 2023?  He’s been on the 60-day IL most of the year and is in rehab now, but I guess we’ll need to option him in mid-Sept. when his rehab time is up?  And will we need to boot someone from the 40-man roster then?

Perhaps the word expect is too strong. I’m probably laying out a best case scenario here. But, I’m doing so in part for the reasons you outline re: options and the 40 man spot. I believe we have to burn one in ‘23 and he’d needs to be 40 manned. 

Let’s not forget, he’s still got 6 weeks of solid development time left in the minors this year and I suspect that he’s a guy they send to the AFL to get some additional innings in. Given his advanced age and roster status, I think they will be more inclined to push him along quickly to help the ML club - so long as he keeps himself healthy. Just a hunch I have. Nothing tangible or quantifiable to back up my theory with.