Over/Under on Wins for the Final AL Wild Card

[Filmstudy]

Non-heated discussion on twitter about how many wins it will take.  I would take the over on 86.5 for the last spot, even though that means some teams are going to have to improve from their current winning percentages to get there.  Reasoning:

1) September Effect says contenders play better and those out of contention play worse

2) Trades that reinforce disparity have not yet shown up in cumulative winning percentages

3) Teams that have more to play for are more likely to bring up minor leaguers that can truly help them down the stretch

4) There are 7 AL teams contending for the Central title plus 3 WCs, all of which have between a .521 and .539 winning percentage currently

5) There are 6 weak sisters in the AL (I'm including the Red Sox) which have a combined record of 296-407 (.421).  I'd expect a drop off to perhaps .370 down the stretch which is going to help a lot of contenders fatten up.

Let's hear your over/under on wins for the last AL WC.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

Non-heated discussion on twitter about how many wins it will take.  I would take the over on 86.5 for the last spot, even though that means some teams are going to have to improve from their current winning percentages to get there.  Reasoning:

1) September Effect says contenders play better and those out of contention play worse

2) Trades that reinforce disparity have not yet shown up in cumulative winning percentages

3) Teams that have more to play for are more likely to bring up minor leaguers that can truly help them down the stretch

4) There are 7 AL teams contending for the Central title plus 3 WCs, all of which have between a .521 and .539 winning percentage currently

5) There are 6 weak sisters in the AL (I'm including the Red Sox) which have a combined record of 296-407 (.421).  I'd expect a drop off to perhaps .370 down the stretch which is going to help a lot of contenders fatten up.

Let's hear your over/under on wins for the last AL WC.

I still think 85 gets the last WC. Without looking at the schedule for every team I'd guess there will be a lot of division play down the stretch. Even against lesser teams it is difficult to win night in and night out.

[Frobby]

My thoughts (and several others’) are here:

 

[JR Oriole]

85 seems like a reasonable number. But that is really contingent on the schedules of these teams.  It feels like we are the only team that is regularly facing our wild card competitors. Everybody else is either facing division leaders (who now lose regularly) or bottom feeders who put up zero resistance. At some point, these teams will have to play each other.....but I am not sure when.  

[Roll Tide]

I don’t care about the percentages. But, a lot of these teams are playing well. The Rays, Twins, and even White Sox are jumping up. I hope the Yankees continue to fade and I certainly don’t expect any help from them at this point.

[Aristotelian]

85 just seems low to me. BJ's are the last team in right now and they are on pace for 85.9. Last year TOR and SEA would have been the last teams in at 90, Oakland would have been the first out at 86. 

One factor to consider is that SEA and TB have the tiebreaker for us so we may need an extra win to get in. I'm going to say our target is 87. 

[maybenxtyr]

35 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

85 just seems low to me. BJ's are the last team in right now and they are on pace for 85.9. Last year TOR and SEA would have been the last teams in at 90, Oakland would have been the first out at 86. 

One factor to consider is that SEA and TB have the tiebreaker for us so we may need an extra win to get in. I'm going to say our target is 87. 

The tie breaker is a problem. That's what made the weekend series against Tampa so painful. 

[seak05]

The away stand against the Astros and Cleveland, plus all those games against the Astros hurts. 
 

Seattle has a much easier path, and I think the Rays are getting healthy and about to go on a run anyways. 
 

Last spot comes down to O’s, Jays, whomever finishes second in the central 

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, seak05 said:

The away stand against the Astros and Cleveland, plus all those games against the Astros hurts. 
 

Seattle has a much easier path, and I think the Rays are getting healthy and about to go on a run anyways. 
 

Last spot comes down to O’s, Jays, whomever finishes second in the central 

This is what I think too!

[Filmstudy]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

My thoughts (and several others’) are here:

 

Sorry, I see the thread duplication here, please merge.