Mike Trout to the Orioles?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I said from the start it isn't happening.

Oh, no, never in a million years.  But that's what makes this place so interesting.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me ask you this.  Let’s say Trout plays 135 games next year and is worth 7 WAR or more.

Do you think his trade value is high next offseason?

No, not particularly.  Probably higher than right now, but I think his trade value right now is pretty much nil.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think our two guys will be as good or better the next three years than they have the last three years, yes, and I see no reason why they wouldn't be.

The last three years they've been worth by season's end roughly 16 WAR.

So if they repeat that, and there's absolutely no reason to think they won't, particularly because they won't be dealing with a global pandemic,  the only way this trade makes sense for the O's in the short term is if Trout continues to be an MVP caliber player and begins to play 150 games again.

And long-term it has virtually no chance of working out, unless Trout is more Willie Mays than Ken Griffey.

Objection to this deal does not require one to believe Trout is going to decline and be hurt immediately.  It simply requires one to correctly evaluate risk and reward.

Do you think Mullins is a 5+ WAR guy going forward?

[Hallas]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me ask you this.  Let’s say Trout plays 135 games next year and is worth 7 WAR or more.

Do you think his trade value is high next offseason?

Of course he does.  But he hasnt done that yet.  You price in maybes accordingly.  Likewise, Mullins could put up 5 WAR again next year and become practically untradeable because we are contending.

 

The likelihood that the Angels are more likely to gamble on his trade value in the 2023 offseason if they don't get blown away by an offer is a valid point, but I honestly don't think that any team is going to offer them more than $.70 on the dollar with his recent injury history if he goes on the market.

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by Hallas

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Mullins is a 5+ WAR guy going forward?

No.  I think he's a 3-4 win guy.  And I think Hays is 2-3 with some upside to get to Mullins level.

By my measure, they're going to be worth more than 16 WAR over the next three seasons.  And I don't see a single good argument as to why that isn't a perfectly fine projection.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Pickles

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

No.  I think he's a 3-4 win guy.  And I think Hays is 2-3 with some upside to get to Mullins level.

By my measure, they're going to be worth more than 16 WAR over the next three seasons.  And I don't see a single good argument as to why that isn't a perfectly fine projection.

Lol..of Course you don’t.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..of Course you don’t.

Explain it to me real slow.  

The last three years, despite missing over 100 games both due to a  global pandemic, they have been worth 16 WAR.

Why is that not reasonable to put as a baseline for what they could do the next three years?

Why does your precious "superior" WAR project them to do exactly that?

I bet all you can do is spew out some stupid emoticon or lol.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Explain it to me real slow.  

The last three years, despite missing over 100 games both due to a  global pandemic, they have been worth 16 WAR.

Why is that not reasonable to put as a baseline for what they could do the next three years?

Why does your precious "superior" WAR project them to do exactly that?

I bet all you can do is spew out some stupid emoticon or lol.

Well first of all, fWAR doesn't have them that high.  

Secondly, a huge portion of that WAR was based off of a 6 WAR (btw, fWAR had Mullins higher than bWAR last year).  If you don’t believe in Mullins being that good going forward(and you said you didn’t), that absolutely makes it hard to see them being worth 16 WAR.

Hays has never been worth 3 WAR. In fact, he only has 1 2 WAR season, although he is well within range of doing that this year.

You are basically giving them their realistic best case scenarios and then saying it’s extremely likely they hit that.  
 

So yea, we are just far apart on this and at this point, just going in circles.

[Hallas]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..of Course you don’t.

Fangraphs hasn't published ZIPS projections for 2025, but I have no reason to believe that their projection for Mullins/Hays will be significantly under 5 fWAR, and I suspect Trout's will be in the 4.5 range.  That would put the ZIPS projection at 16 for 3 years, versus about 14.5 for Trout.  Do you believe these projections to be inaccurate?  If yes, why?  These are all fangraphs WAR values, by the way.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

Fangraphs hasn't published ZIPS projections for 2025, but I have no reason to believe that their projection for Mullins/Hays will be significantly under 5 fWAR, and I suspect Trout's will be in the 4.5 range.  Do you believe these projections to be inaccurate?  If yes, why?  These are all fangraphs WAR values, by the way.

In 2025?  I think Hays is a 1-1.5 guy and Mullins is 2 or so.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, fWAR doesn't have them that high.  

Secondly, a huge portion of that WAR was based off of a 6 WAR (btw, fWAR had Mullins higher than bWAR last year).  If you don’t believe in Mullins being that good going forward(and you said you didn’t), that absolutely makes it hard to see them being worth 16 WAR.

Hays has never been worth 3 WAR. In fact, he only has 1 2 WAR season, although he is well within range of doing that this year.

You are basically giving them their realistic best case scenarios and then saying it’s extremely likely they hit that.  
 

So yea, we are just far apart on this and at this point, just going in circles.

BWAR had him at 3 last year.  He has a chance to get there this year.

You're also failing to acknowledge they missed 100 games to a pandemic beyond their control.

Your own preferred method of WAR projects them for 17 WAR, and you act like I'm insane for putting their realistic floor at 16, when my preferred WAR system projects them at like 19-20 WAR.

You're simply not being honest.  For God's sake you said Hays was a fourth outfielder at best, and Mullins a possible platoon player.  Do you understand how far from reality that is?

[Hallas]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

In 2025?  I think Hays is a 1-1.5 guy and Mullins is 2 or so.

Why do you have Mullins at 2 when his ZIPS is 3.8 and 3.7 for 2023 and 2024, and he will have just turned 30 in 2025?  Do you not believe his 2 year ZIPs projections either?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

BWAR had him at 3 last year.  He has a chance to get there this year.

You're also failing to acknowledge they missed 100 games to a pandemic beyond their control.

Your own preferred method of WAR projects them for 17 WAR, and you act like I'm insane for putting their realistic floor at 16, when my preferred WAR system projects them at like 19-20 WAR.

You're simply not being honest.  For God's sake you said Hays was a fourth outfielder at best, and Mullins a possible platoon player.  Do you understand how far from reality that is?

I don’t care about 2020.  Why are you even talking about it?  The focus should be 2021 and 2022 to get a feel of what they are going forward.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care about 2020.  Why are you even talking about it?  The focus should be 2021 and 2022 to get a feel of what they are going forward.

The last two years reflects better on my boys.  And they're 26 and 27.  Their performance isn't going anywhere.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Why do you have Mullins at 2 when his ZIPS is 3.8 and 3.7 for 2023 and 2024, and he will have just turned 30 in 2025?  Do you not believe his 2 year ZIPs projections either?

Because if/when his defense starts to decline, his WAR is going to drop.  I think that happens by 2025.  

His speed doesn’t have to drop off much for that to happen.