Mountcastle

[Frobby]

I’ve never been as big a Mountcastle fan as many on the board.  But —

It’s easy to kick a guy when he’s down.  He’s a streaky guy, and right now he’s in a prolonged slump.  But I won’t be at all surprised if he turns it around some random day soon and then posters will be coming out of the woodwork telling us what a “beast” he is.

He’s still a guy whose .308 wOBA is way below his .347 xWOBA, and though he’s unquestionably struggling right now, I’ll take the “over” on his current .712 OPS for the final 35 games.   

[Satyr3206]

Choke up a bit and drive the ball towards center. Once he gets his timing back he can go back to trying to pull everything.

[emmett16]

He's in a bad place right now.  Can tell he is pressing and is down on himself.  I've said it before, but I would not be surprised if he has some nagging injury and is trying to overcompensate for it.  He looks depleted.  The swing is off and the bat speed isn't elite right now.  The Astro's came at him with nothing but fastballs and beat him in almost every AB.  I think he could benefit from a breather and a little rest before the final push.  If he's batting 4th tomorrow, I might throw my computer out the window. 

[dtk9119]

He either needs to be sat for a few days (and yes, there are players on the 25 and 40 man that can play 1st) or at minimum he should be dropped to 6th or 7th in the order. He looked absolutely foolish all weekend in Houston batting clean up. Move him down or give him a few breather days. If he still doesn't improve by end of season start looking to deal him.

[Satyr3206]

1 minute ago, dtk9119 said:

He either needs to be sat for a few days (and yes, there are players on the 25 and 40 man that can play 1st) or at minimum he should be dropped to 6th or 7th in the order. He looked absolutely foolish all weekend in Houston batting clean up. Move him down or give him a few breather days. If he still doesn't improve by end of season start looking to deal him.

I wouldn't trade him. He a good hitter when right. Fix him.

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I wouldn't trade him. He a good hitter when right. Fix him.

Fix him. Then trade him. 

[Il BuonO]

47 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I wouldn't trade him. He a good hitter when right. Fix him.

Except his approach is terrible. So, even when he gets hot eventually, he’ll regress  because of his lack of plate discipline. 

[Gurgi]

49 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Fix him. Then trade him. 

Hope he gets going and move him after he has an extended good streak.   I do not think he is the long term answer for first.   In fact I dont even like his defense at first.  Its not elite.  I dont even think it is average.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Gurgi said:

Hope he gets going and move him after he has an extended good streak.   I do not think he is the long term answer for first.   In fact I dont even like his defense at first.  Its not elite.  I dont even think it is average.   

I like Mountcastle, but I pretty much agree with your assessment. I was hoping Mountcastle would avoid any prolonged slumps this second half to juice his trade value.

Mountcastle doesn't fit the profile of the type of hitter (low OBP and swings at everything) that Elias wants playing on the Orioles. Mountcastle is a decent player and has value, but I have to think Elias will move him for the right trade package.

Right now if I had to make a prediction, I say Mountcastle remains with this Orioles until free agency, but he eventually drops to 7th in the batting order. 

 

[NCRaven]

I remain a big fan.  Constructive criticism is always needed.  The bashing has been way over the top.  Mountcastle still has lots of value.

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Hope he gets going and move him after he has an extended good streak.   I do not think he is the long term answer for first.   In fact I dont even like his defense at first.  Its not elite.  I dont even think it is average.   

B-ref has him at +1 DRS, after being +3 or 4 earlier in the season which surprised me because, other than scoops (which I do think he does fairly well) I wasn’t impressed with his footwork or glove work and throwing (which is one of the reasons he never struck at any other IF position). 
 

His defense will never be a selling point. They have to hope he snaps out of his current downturn enough to provide value to another team. But I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

[waroriole]

At what point do we say he is what he is? In 1200 career PAs, he’s totaled 2.2 WAR. He’s just not a valuable player at all. It will be disappointing if he continues to be an every day player, unless his approach drastically improves. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, waroriole said:

At what point do we say he is what he is? In 1200 career PAs, he’s totaled 2.2 WAR. He’s just not a valuable player at all. It will be disappointing if he continues to be an every day player, unless his approach drastically improves. 

When I was growing up, the conventional wisdom was it took about 1500 at bats for a player to hit his full stride.  Now, there was no real science behind that, and every player is different anyway, but I still think that’s a decent rule of thumb, and I’m not quite ready to say Mountcastle “is what he is.”   I do worry that his lack of selectivity will always limit him and render him more vulnerable to slumps than some players.   But look at Adam Jones’ first 2-3 years vs. the next five.  He wasn’t a selective hitter either.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

When I was growing up, the conventional wisdom was it took about 1500 at bats for a player to hit his full stride.  Now, there was no real science behind that, and every player is different anyway, but I still think that’s a decent rule of thumb, and I’m not quite ready to say Mountcastle “is what he is.”   I do worry that his lack of selectivity will always limit him and render him more vulnerable to slumps than some players.   But look at Adam Jones’ first 2-3 years vs. the next five.  He wasn’t a selective hitter either.

I'd like to know how intent he is on improving. The Mateo stories about his improvement during this season are fairly well known and the end result, to date, has been remarkable. I commend Mateo for making big changes to what he was doing before. Not everyone is willing to do that. 

That's not a slight to Mountcastle in the least. But some players are more amenable to change than others, and some more determined to make needed changes. I think his mindset is a big factor in where he goes from here and what Elias chooses to do as a result. 

Not everything is related to what the Astros did but one of biggest areas of improvement was the strikeout rate from one year to the next. I think Elias will be focusing on that as an area where switching maybe 3 guys in the lineup could make a huge difference in '22 and '23. 

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never been as big a Mountcastle fan as many on the board.  But —

It’s easy to kick a guy when he’s down.  He’s a streaky guy, and right now he’s in a prolonged slump.  But I won’t be at all surprised if he turns it around some random day soon and then posters will be coming out of the woodwork telling us what a “beast” he is.

He’s still a guy whose .308 wOBA is way below his .347 xWOBA, and though he’s unquestionably struggling right now, I’ll take the “over” on his current .712 OPS for the final 35 games.   

Exactly this… Ryan is very streaky and is not as good as Trey is about going to right.  But in the absence of an offseason trade for an upgrade or a draft pick, he will likely continue there and hopefully will bust out against the Jays in the 9 games to decide the wildcard situation