Orioles should consider converting Stowers to 1B

[joelala]

I too think it’s a bit premature to give up one RMC and vote him off the island. Aside from Mullins, he was our best hitter last year, and he was crushing the ball in May if I remember correctly. Physically, as has been mentioned in this thread or another, he is an elite hitter. I’d like to give him another year to see if he can adjust his approach. 

[spiritof66]

Mountcastle has had slumps before in which he's looked real bad. I'm not sure how the length or depth of Mountcastle's present slump compares to those of the past, but I think the real difference is that this one comes at a time when he's one of the few power bats on a team that's watched closely as it battles for a post-season spot, and shortly after the team's other acceptable first base option was traded. It's painful to watch and it's harming the team, but -- subject to a day or two off and moving him down in the lineup -- he's got to play. 

Mountcastle's not great defensively, but I think he's OK as a RHed first baseman. (I believe lefties have a big advantage at the position that often gets overlooked.) As a former infielder, he's adequate or better at taking throws, playing the ball on a hop and digging balls out. Difficult popups are an adventure, and sometimes the adventure doesn't turn out well. 

 

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

I think we need to look at the prospects list to see the future at 1B.  There are two great candidates for our future 1B player who also have plus power, size and slows. 

Corby Mayo is 6-5 has a loud bat.  Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Arm: 70 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50.   The arm  (70 !) says third base, but the field (45) says maybe not.  The Run=40 says forget about the outfield but the power (60) suggests firstbase.  

The other good prospect for a future 1st baseman is Heston Kjerstad,  6-3.  He missed a year or more of development due to a medical condition and the Covid pandemic.  Power of 60 (you want that from 1B, but a run of 45, which is not up to "Baltimore Orioles outfielder speed". The FIELD grade of 50 sounds better to me than Mayo's 45.  He missed 2 years but has jumped several levelsin 2022 and I would expect we could see him at AA and AAA by the end of 2023.   Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50    

I like the idea of big boppers at 1st base and that is the place to put the slower players but more power full hitters.

 

So that leaves what to do at 1st base in 2023.  Right now Nevins is the backup 1Baseman, and the O's are starting to tinker with Santander as a potential backup.  Nothing wrong with that.  Nevins does not look like a long term answer and I expect he will not be on the 25 man roster in 2023.  I think that plan should be to hang on the Mountcastle for 2023,  get Sandtander some reps as a backup and then evaluate Mayo and Kjerstad as replacements in late 2023 and 2024- if they can push out Montcatstle. ....  No harm in giving the funny glove to Stowers for a look-see.https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

 

 

I don't know who is having that conversation, but Mayo is not a 40 runner, not even close. He runs well on the go though he could end up a 40 runner when it's all said and done due to his size.

Kjestad would be a guy I'd consider converting as well if there was a need or even to make him more versatile.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, joelala said:

I too think it’s a bit premature to give up one RMC and vote him off the island. Aside from Mullins, he was our best hitter last year, and he was crushing the ball in May if I remember correctly. Physically, as has been mentioned in this thread or another, he is an elite hitter. I’d like to give him another year to see if he can adjust his approach. 

You do realize that nowhere in my post did I say that the Orioles should give up on Mountcastle. I said this would free them up to trade Mountcastle in the right deal. 

Saying that, Mountcastle is looking a lot more like Renato Nunez offensively (crazy streaky) and we saw what Nunez's value was after his 26 year old season even after hitting 31 home runs at 25 and then putting up a .816 OPS while pace to hit over 30 home runs at 26 years old. Now grant it, Mountcastle does bring some defensive value at first base, but Elias did not even offer Nunez a contract and Mountcastle is hitting worse than Nunez at 25.

Streaky hitters with low OBPs are not what teams are looking for nowadays. 

[joelala]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that nowhere in my post did I say that the Orioles should give up on Mountcastle. I said this would free them up to trade Mountcastle in the right deal. 

Saying that, Mountcastle is looking a lot more like Renato Nunez offensively (crazy streaky) and we saw what Nunez's value was after his 26 year old season even after hitting 31 home runs at 25 and then putting up a .816 OPS while pace to hit over 30 home runs at 26 years old. Now grant it, Mountcastle does bring some defensive value at first base, but Elias did not even offer Nunez a contract and Mountcastle is hitting worse than Nunez at 25.

Streaky hitters with low OBPs are not what teams are looking for nowadays. 

Oh I know you didn’t explicitly say they should give up on him. The cries for him to be replaced have been going on for a few weeks now and I merely decided to chime in on this thread, not in direct rebuke to your post. I agree thought, he’s not an ideal hitter, but I think pedigree makes him a bit of a different case than Nunez. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, joelala said:

Oh I know you didn’t explicitly say they should give up on him. The cries for him to be replaced have been going on for a few weeks now and I merely decided to chime in on this thread, not in direct rebuke to your post. I agree thought, he’s not an ideal hitter, but I think pedigree makes him a bit of a different case than Nunez. 

I'd like to pull this thread a bit. What Pedigree do you think makes him different than Nunez? I know he was one of our top prospects vs a waiver wire pickup, and perhaps that can be taken into consideration, but at the end of the day, Mountcastle is about to go to arbitration and get more expensive and he's more and more looking like he can be replaced internally with some position shifting.

 

[oh-wee-ohs]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd like to pull this thread a bit. What Pedigree do you think makes him different than Nunez? I know he was one of our top prospects vs a waiver wire pickup, and perhaps that can be taken into consideration, but at the end of the day, Mountcastle is about to go to arbitration and get more expensive and he's more and more looking like he can be replaced internally with some position shifting.

 

Pedigree = AAA player of the year or whatever award it is he won. The highly acclaimed bat even with flaws. Dunno if Nunez was touted but MC was. Just saying. But I agree with you, he's making himself very replaceable. I've said it before, I don't think he's Elias' preference in offense. 

[NCRaven]

He also received ROY votes in 2020 and 2021 along with the MLBPA ROY Award in 2021.  FWIW.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd like to pull this thread a bit. What Pedigree do you think makes him different than Nunez? I know he was one of our top prospects vs a waiver wire pickup, and perhaps that can be taken into consideration, but at the end of the day, Mountcastle is about to go to arbitration and get more expensive and he's more and more looking like he can be replaced internally with some position shifting.

 

From my perspective he's a guy who played better the last two years and he has some positive to very positive batted ball numbers that indicate he could bounce back. In 1st year arb he's only going to get a couple million.  I don't think bringing him back, along with some internal competition, is big risk.

[joelala]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd like to pull this thread a bit. What Pedigree do you think makes him different than Nunez? I know he was one of our top prospects vs a waiver wire pickup, and perhaps that can be taken into consideration, but at the end of the day, Mountcastle is about to go to arbitration and get more expensive and he's more and more looking like he can be replaced internally with some position shifting.

 

Yeah, as others have said, he tore up the minors and was also a high draft pick whereas Nunez seemed to take a much more circuitous path to our team. I do agree that he’s currently making himself expendable though, but I just would like to see it out. Which is the real Mountcastle? The rookie, or this current, less valuable iteration? We have time to wait a bit and find out. His trade value is low right now and if he starts slowly next year he should 100 percent lose ABs. 

[foxfield]

17 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

I think we need to look at the prospects list to see the future at 1B.  There are two great candidates for our future 1B player who also have plus power, size and slows. 

Corby Mayo is 6-5 has a loud bat.  Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Arm: 70 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50.   The arm  (70 !) says third base, but the field (45) says maybe not.  The Run=40 says forget about the outfield but the power (60) suggests firstbase.  

The other good prospect for a future 1st baseman is Heston Kjerstad,  6-3.  He missed a year or more of development due to a medical condition and the Covid pandemic.  Power of 60 (you want that from 1B, but a run of 45, which is not up to "Baltimore Orioles outfielder speed". The FIELD grade of 50 sounds better to me than Mayo's 45.  He missed 2 years but has jumped several levelsin 2022 and I would expect we could see him at AA and AAA by the end of 2023.   Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50    

I like the idea of big boppers at 1st base and that is the place to put the slower players but more power full hitters.

 

So that leaves what to do at 1st base in 2023.  Right now Nevins is the backup 1Baseman, and the O's are starting to tinker with Santander as a potential backup.  Nothing wrong with that.  Nevins does not look like a long term answer and I expect he will not be on the 25 man roster in 2023.  I think that plan should be to hang on the Mountcastle for 2023,  get Sandtander some reps as a backup and then evaluate Mayo and Kjerstad as replacements in late 2023 and 2024- if they can push out Montcatstle. ....  No harm in giving the funny glove to Stowers for a look-see.https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

 

 

Welcome aboard.  This is pretty interesting thought.  Nice post.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From my perspective he's a guy who played better the last two years and he has some positive to very positive batted ball numbers that indicate he could bounce back. In 1st year arb he's only going to get a couple million.  I don't think bringing him back, along with some internal competition, is big risk.

Oh, he's getting offered a contract for sure, but the point is he's putting up worse number than a guy who was non-tendered a few years ago and the Orioles are entering their competitive window. He's also a guy that continues to trend in the wrong direction despite good EV and hard hit numbers. 

With the talent arriving, I just think Mountcastle could be used as a chip in a trade though the value of that chip keep diminishing with his poor performance.

[sportsfan8703]

22 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

With a crowded outfield picture from next year on, it would make some sense to try and convert someone to first base to see how they play there. I know they say they've started with Santander, which is good, but they may also want to consider others.

The guy I think might be a good fit is the 6-foot-3 Stowers. Coming up, I never was too impressed with his outfield speed and his early statcast sprint speeds show him to be a below average runner (32nd percentile). I've been saying for awhile that he's a Santander-like defender in RF and in case you haven't been paying attention, Santander is not exactly a speed burner out there. He throws effectively 

Now Stowers is not a Mancini like outfielder so it's not an emergency to move him, but he's a big target, left-hander (preferred for 1B) and he might be the best place for him long term.

If he could play there effectively, this could free up the Orioles to move Mountcastle in the right deal this offseason.

2023 Outfield options

LF: Hays, Vavra, McKenna, Cowser
CF: Mullins, McKenna, Vavra, Hays, Cowser
RF: Stowers, Santander, Hays, Cowser

 

Norby is pushing his way into the COF picture for next year.  

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From my perspective he's a guy who played better the last two years and he has some positive to very positive batted ball numbers that indicate he could bounce back. In 1st year arb he's only going to get a couple million.  I don't think bringing him back, along with some internal competition, is big risk.

Completely agree with this.  I'm fine with keeping him as it's a thin position in the org.  While also agreeing that Mounty doesn't fit the Elias hitting profile of controlling the strike zone. 

To slightly 'push back' against keeping him/for trading him:  His MiLB resume, 2020-21 stats, likelihood of positive regression on top of team control/pay adds trade value as well.  Maybe he's not 'max value' but there's still market value since he's at the top of the conveyor belt as a proven MLB player.  He could check a box for a trade partner in our hunt for a TOR-type pitcher.  

I've gotten flack for this before but... transitioning non-1Bs to 1B is common.  It happens ALL. THE. TIME.  Does it pan out defensively all the time?  No.  Butchers with gloves come in all shapes and sizes.  But I'm fine with an SP upgrade and auditioning a few 1B-converts (Santander, Westburg, Urias, Vavra, Norby, Stowers, Mayo, Kjerstad...).  It's not like we have a shortage of IFers or OFers in the system.

Not to derail the thread, but it's related:  Even if we don't trade Mounty, we have to figure out who's the next man up in the org at 1B.  I don't want them throwing a ton of money at Mancini though (or even at Mounty as his paycheck grows).  Great fan guy, but I'm not interested in chasing his stats with a bunch of money.  If we're throwing money at a 1B/MOO, then we have to raise the bar.  So, figure out who's next up in the org at 1B or raise the bar!

[Natty]

Whats the trade value in a first baseman with a .243 BA who strikes out a lot?