Farm System - End of 2023

[glenn__davis]

Poster baltfan made a claim that at the end of 2023 Dylan Beavers could be our #2 prospect.  Just thought it would be an interesting topic - what exactly will our system look like at the end of 2023?  I made a Top 15 list below.  Obviously this list is HIGHLY speculative to the point that it has no real value other than to entertain me after a week of Covid quarantine.  I'm assuming that many players will be either with the MLB team at this point long enough to have lost their prospect status or included in a trade (I purposely went a little aggressive there to assume we would lose a lot).  Just thought it might be interesting to see how much the system could drop off by the end of next year:

1. Jackson Holliday
2. 2023 1st pick
3. Seth Johnson
4. Coby Mayo
5. Cade Povich
6. Sammy Basallo
7. Heston Kjerstad
8. Dylan Beavers
9. 2023 #2 pick
10. Darrell Hernaiz
11. Aron Estrada
12. Max Wagner
13. Jud Fabian
14. Fredrik Bencosme
15. Carter Baumler

Graduated / traded - Henderson, Rodriguez, Cowser, Hall, Stowers, Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, Vavra.  Even with those subtractions - obviously that's not as good of a list but still not bad through 15.

Edited September 2, 2022 by glenn__davis

[Sports Guy]

I doubt we are Johnson that high, since he won’t likely pitch much, if at all, in 2023.

The progress of Povich, Mayo, Kjerstad, Fabian, Basallo and Beavers will be huge in terms of ranking the system by this time next year.

[glenn__davis]

For some reason I thought Johnson would get a about a half a season in, but yeah, didn't realize he had had his surgery so recently.

I'm really interested in Aron Estrada.  He had a pretty monster season for a 17 year old in the DSL.  Obviously just going off of numbers there, so no idea what the tools are.

[Alasdaire]

At a certain point, Kjerstad is going to reach a point where he either becomes the player the Orioles thought they were drafting or he gets overtaken by the talent around him. At the end of 2023, he'll be nearing 25. I known he missed a lot of time, but if he's posting middling stats at the end of next year while Beavers/Fabian are unlocking, I don't see how you rate Kjerstad higher based on pretty good college statistics from 2019. I think he'll either be pretty high up or pretty low down.

[wildcard]

I think Elias will continue to trade veterans for prospects.  By the deadline in 2023 Santander, Means and Lyles may all be traded for prospects that impact this list.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias will continue to trade veterans for prospects.  By the deadline in 2023 Santander, Means and Lyles may all be traded for prospects that impact this list.

I don't think you will get anything for Lyles that would impact this list.

[glenn__davis]

9 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

At a certain point, Kjerstad is going to reach a point where he either becomes the player the Orioles thought they were drafting or he gets overtaken by the talent around him. At the end of 2023, he'll be nearing 25. I known he missed a lot of time, but if he's posting middling stats at the end of next year while Beavers/Fabian are unlocking, I don't see how you rate Kjerstad higher based on pretty good college statistics from 2019. I think he'll either be pretty high up or pretty low down.

I would agree regarding Kjerstad.  I'm not too down on his stint in Aberdeen in the same way that I wasn't too high on his stint in Delmarva.  To me this season was all about getting reps.  If he hasn't shown real progress by the end of next year then he may just not be the player the Orioles drafted anymore.  But I don't think we're there yet.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I would agree regarding Kjerstad.  I'm not too down on his stint in Aberdeen in the same way that I wasn't too high on his stint in Delmarva.  To me this season was all about getting reps.  If he hasn't shown real progress by the end of next year then he may just not be the player the Orioles drafted anymore.  But I don't think we're there yet.

Or never was who the Orioles thought he was.

[glenn__davis]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Or never was who the Orioles thought he was.

In theory sure - but I think just about everyone regarded him as a good power bat.  That's certainly been lacking thus far, just 4HR in 256 PA.  I think it's very reasonable to assume that 2 full seasons of not playing/inactivity sapped some of that power and fair to question whether or not it will return.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

In theory sure - but I think just about everyone regarded him as a good power bat.  That's certainly been lacking thus far, just 4HR in 256 PA.  I think it's very reasonable to assume that 2 full seasons of not playing/inactivity sapped some of that power and fair to question whether or not it will return.

Sure, I'll give you the power.

I meant as an overall prospect.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think you will get anything for Lyles that would impact this list.

We will see.   Lyles is pitching in the low 4.00s in ERA and he is very durable.  May end the season with a winning record.    The O's may pick up his option and next year the O's may be better than this year.   So he could be pretty valuable to a contender at the deadline.   We will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Elias was able to get Johnson for two months of Mancini.

Edited September 2, 2022 by wildcard

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

In theory sure - but I think just about everyone regarded him as a good power bat.  That's certainly been lacking thus far, just 4HR in 256 PA.  I think it's very reasonable to assume that 2 full seasons of not playing/inactivity sapped some of that power and fair to question whether or not it will return.

Elias and co. have obviously done an outstanding job implementing their model of identifying the talent that they believe they can develop and then coaching those players up.

But I think Kjerstad is an example of that methodology gone wrong. They locked themselves into choosing an underslot bat in that draft at 1:2, which eliminated all pitchers and anyone overslot.

Even from that small pool of players they artificially constructed, they chose Kjerstad over any of the prep bats that have gone on to look really good like Zac Veen Robert Hassell, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I didn't get the pick then, and although we can't say it was a mistake because of the weird diagnosis that has sidelined him, I think there were much better options at 1:2 overall than a good power bat.

[glenn__davis]

16 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Elias and co. have obviously done an outstanding job implementing their model of identifying the talent that they believe they can develop and then coaching those players up.

But I think Kjerstad is an example of that methodology gone wrong. They locked themselves into choosing an underslot bat in that draft at 1:2, which eliminated all pitchers and anyone overslot.

Even from that small pool of players they artificially constructed, they chose Kjerstad over any of the prep bats that have gone on to look really good like Zac Veen Robert Hassell, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I didn't get the pick then, and although we can't say it was a mistake because of the weird diagnosis that has sidelined him, I think there were much better options at 1:2 overall than a good power bat.

You certainly could be right.  As you said though, we'll never know.  The success of Mayo and Baumler would need to be taken into account as well.  Unless he goes on to have a good MLB career the Kjerstad pick will be questioned and we'll never know what might have been.

[Aristotelian]

Haskin could play a full year at AAA and finish top 15. Same with Rom and Denoyer. 

Keep in mind our '23 draft pick is going to be middle of the pack. I doubt whoever we pick slots as high as #2, but maybe so with all the graduations. 

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

You certainly could be right.  As you said though, we'll never know.  The success of Mayo and Baumler would need to be taken into account as well.  Unless he goes on to have a good MLB career the Kjerstad pick will be questioned and we'll never know what might have been.

Right, that's the weird part about the Kjerstad situation, it's hard to dismiss it out of hand because he hasn't played enough to say it was a bad pick.

The thing is that I think they made a bad decision even if you wanted to go underslot so that you could get Mayo and Baumler later. Because Veen, Hassell, and Crow-Armstrong all signed for less than Kjerstad did. And all three were ranked by some reputable sources as higher than Kjerstad going into the draft, so it's not like they were unknowns.

I've wondered whether they eliminated prep bats that year because the pandemic gave them little data from the 2020 senior year. I guess it's understandable. But any reasoning you're doing that almost literally only give you one draftable player--must be a position player; can't be over/at slot; not a prep bat; still a top-15 talent--is very questionable to me.

Again want to give kudos to their draft strategy overall.