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Is the American League East Championship in Play?


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They had their chance to be helpful to us and they were totally useless.  All they did was lose a ton of games to Seattle, Tampa, Boston, and Toronto.  They were 61-23 on July 8 and now they are 79-53.  So 18-30 over their last 48, which is beyond bad for a team that was playing .725 ball for half a season! They will most likely retain the division because they have 4 games against the Twins (who couldn't beat the Yankees if their lives were at stake), 2 against Pittsburgh, and 4 in Texas.  So that is probably 9 wins there.  The real question is what does Tampa do against Toronto because these Jays games (against us and Tampa) are going to decide everything. 

If they do lose the division to the Rays, Boone should fire himself.  There is no way with his ticker that this job is good for him. Dude is angry and stressed ALL the time. 

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8 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the Yankees lose the division, it might be the most epic collapse ever.  The biggest other collapse I can think of was the Red Sox in 1978, who had a 14 game lead in July.  Of course then there was no wild card. 

These two come to mind, but I am not sure either had 15 or so game leads earlier in the season. But if you want to take about September collapses, these are two of the most famous.

- The '64 Phillies had a 6.5 game lead on the Cardinals as late as Sept. 20th and then blew it.

- And then there's the Cubs in '69 getting overtaken by the Mets. The Cubs lost 17.5 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season. The

"The Cubs ultimately lost 17 of the last 25 games of the season, while the Mets went 23–7 to overtake the Cubs and finish eight games ahead of them. It was one of the most astounding late season collapses in history, with the seventeen-game turnaround being one of the biggest ever."

 

 

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9 hours ago, bluedog said:

25 - 5...

So you're saying there's a chance!

Starting Sept. 2, 1969, the Mets went 23-7 down the stretch to catch and pass the Cubs (who were 6.5 games up on them) on that date.

I don't foresee this for the O's (But I can easily see the Rays passing NY, though), but it's interesting to look back on those who did accomplish it.

Here's a breakdown of difficulty of schedule that was posted early this morning. These are the just ones who are in contention for a postseason berth in the AL East. 

Yankees
Opponent winning percentage: .502

Blue Jays
Opponent winning percentage: .486

Orioles
Opponent winning percentage: .517

Rays
Opponent winning percentage: .537

"Perhaps not surprisingly, the four most difficult schedules are all for teams from the AL East that, of course, all have to play each other. Much of this comes down to how many games everybody has against the rest of the East. The Yankees have 18, with six against Boston (which, while in last place, is still in fact Boston); the Blue Jays have 25, the O’s have 20, the Rays have 21 … plus six against Houston (and three against first-place Cleveland). That gives the Rays the toughest stretch moving forward, though you can’t help but think the AL Wild Card is going to come down, one way or the other, to those 10 games between Toronto and Baltimore, starting with a doubleheader on Monday. The team that’s the happiest about all these AL East battles: Seattle. Definitely Seattle."  https://www.mlb.com/news/strength-of-schedule-for-2022-playoff-contenders

 

Edited by NashLumber
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On the flip side of collapse is ascendancy

 

from The Athletic 

 

According to Elias Sports Bureau, only five teams since 1900 have lost 110 games one year and won at least 70 the next: the 1935-36 Boston Braves/Bees, the 1969-70 Montreal Expos, the 2003-04 Detroit Tigers, the 2004-05 Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2013-14 Houston Astros.

None of those teams won more than Montreal’s 73 in 1970. The Orioles will blow that turnaround record away, even if they win only 10 more games this year.

Want a little more historical significance?

Also according to Elias Sports Bureau, no club has ever won more than 70 games in a season after losing 100 or more in the three previous full seasons. The 1925 Boston Braves, the 1956 Washington Senators and the 2014 Astros – which included Mike Elias in the front office – all won 70 games after three consecutive 100-plus-loss seasons.“

 

 

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3 hours ago, baltfan said:

We finish our against the Yankees.  Hopefully they have the AL East wrapped up by then so they don’t have to play their best guys against us. We aren’t catching them, so I would rather they win. 

Finish road season against them. The season itself ends at home vs Toronto. Couldn’t ask for a better schedule.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably not for the Orioles but it is for Tampa although the recent injuries for then may make it hard to catch up…but they just keep winning in spite of all their injuries.

Hyde is the likely runaway winner for MOY but Cash has a great case as well.

I think Cash is only one else with a chance. Hyde will win it unless Rays win division. They have a great organization.  

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Orioles are now 7 games back of the Yankees in the loss column. Toronto is 5 back, the Rays are 3 back.

The O's were 23 games back in the loss column on July 2nd. They've made up 16 games on the Yankees since then.

If the Yankees are swept by the Rays tomorrow and lose to the Twins on Monday, the Jays beat the Pirates tomorrow and the O's win their next three games, the Rays will be 1 back in the loss column, and the Jays and the O's will be 5 back.

The division is definitely in play and there is a plausible scenario where the Yanks actually miss the playoffs...

Talk about chaos.

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13 hours ago, tntoriole said:

On the flip side of collapse is ascendancy

 

from The Athletic 

 

According to Elias Sports Bureau, only five teams since 1900 have lost 110 games one year and won at least 70 the next: the 1935-36 Boston Braves/Bees, the 1969-70 Montreal Expos, the 2003-04 Detroit Tigers, the 2004-05 Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2013-14 Houston Astros.

None of those teams won more than Montreal’s 73 in 1970. The Orioles will blow that turnaround record away, even if they win only 10 more games this year.

Want a little more historical significance?

Also according to Elias Sports Bureau, no club has ever won more than 70 games in a season after losing 100 or more in the three previous full seasons. The 1925 Boston Braves, the 1956 Washington Senators and the 2014 Astros – which included Mike Elias in the front office – all won 70 games after three consecutive 100-plus-loss seasons.“

 

 

The Diamondbacks won 77 games in 2005, so 7 more wins eclipses them.  I'm hoping the Orioles top them by about 12.  

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8 hours ago, bluedog said:

Orioles are now 7 games back of the Yankees in the loss column. Toronto is 5 back, the Rays are 3 back.

The O's were 23 games back in the loss column on July 2nd. They've made up 16 games on the Yankees since then.

If the Yankees are swept by the Rays tomorrow and lose to the Twins on Monday, the Jays beat the Pirates tomorrow and the O's win their next three games, the Rays will be 1 back in the loss column, and the Jays and the O's will be 5 back.

The division is definitely in play and there is a plausible scenario where the Yanks actually miss the playoffs...

Talk about chaos.

There's a possibility that the close to this season may rival the end of 2011's or, going way back, 1967's as the most memorable AL races in my life.

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1 hour ago, LA2 said:

There's a possibility that the close to this season may rival the end of 2011's or, going way back, 1967's as the most memorable AL races in my life.

1967 was amazing.  Four teams in the race into the final week, and three teams with a chance to win the AL pennant on the final day.  And there was no ALCS or wild card, it was win or go home.  

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1967 was amazing.  Four teams in the race into the final week, and three teams with a chance to win the AL pennant on the final day.  And there was no ALCS or wild card, it was win or go home.  

Yes, it was incredible. For those who don't know:

Boston 92-70

Detroit 91-71

Minnesota 91-71

Chicago 89-73

Also, the sense then that each team had its undisputed leader going into the final dogfights: Yastrzemski's Red Sox, Kaline's Tigers, and Killebrew's Twins. The White Sox leader was their manager Eddie Stanky, who had his team scraping out victories behind the triumvirate of Gary Peters, Joel Horlen, and Tommy John with almost no offense aside from madcap base running.

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