Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[nvpacchi]

35 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not sure anyone commented on this post, but I'd like to.

I think the general consensus, and one I share, is that the shift ban will enhance the value of elite middle infield defenders, such as Mateo.

I would think that banning the shift prevents being able to put your best defenders in the best opportunities to field as many groundballs as possible.

Nico Hoerner for example fielded 97 balls from a 2B position, so that cuts out about 25% of his ground ball opportunities.  From a pure counting perspective I don't see how stellar D purely at short can overcome that reduction in opportunities.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, nvpacchi said:

I would think that banning the shift prevents being able to put your best defenders in the best opportunities to field as many groundballs as possible.

Nico Hoerner for example fielded 97 balls from a 2B position, so that cuts out about 25% of his ground ball opportunities.  From a pure counting perspective I don't see how stellar D purely at short can overcome that reduction in opportunities.

I think banning the shift is going to increase the value of range.  Players who can go get the ball, as opposed to being positioned there in advance, will have more value.

[nvpacchi]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think banning the shift is going to increase the value of range.  Players who can go get the ball, as opposed to being positioned there in advance, will have more value.

Yeah that does make sense too, I understand both sides of the argument - better to wait and see how it ultimately pans out.

A lot of it may have to do with how teams use the shift right now.

Back to the Hoerner example, when he shifts he plays purely in the 2B spot and frequently in the OF.  Mateo in contrast looks to only shade to the right side of 2B, and never sets up in the 2B hole.  So perhaps Mateo plays right on top of the bag and can use his athleticism to get to those balls that go up the middle but shaded to the right of second base (the ones where he is basically positioned there already).

Whereas Hoerner on the otherhand, who knows how the Cubs rebalance their infield since he frequently lines up so far from the classic SS position already.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think banning the shift is going to increase the value of range.  Players who can go get the ball, as opposed to being positioned there in advance, will have more value.

But range still has value when shifted.  You don't put Machado in short right field if your guys don't have range.

[sportsfan8703]

My gut tells me we keep Mateo though next year with the hopes of him being a 20/30 player with a .700 OPS. Also, GG defense with no shift. 
 

He’s also just scratching the surface as a base stealer. I’d love for us to bring in someone in ST to show him the nuances. He worked hard at learning SS. Maybe even like a Billy Hamilton ST invite. 

[orioles22]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's face it, you have a bias against Mateo.  You are willing to assume that Ortiz is every bit as good as Mateo (Tony rates Mateo's arm as stronger btw) without ever having seen him played for an extended period, but aren't willing to assume that what we saw from Mateo at age 26-27 can be repeated at age 27-28.   Let's face it, you use a sliding scale.

Yeah, certainly seems that way. I don't know how anyone can assume Ortiz will be an elite shortstop until he plays in the big leagues a while. I hope he can be an elite second baseman, which isn't as hard.

[MCO'sFan]

28 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

I would think that banning the shift prevents being able to put your best defenders in the best opportunities to field as many groundballs as possible.

Nico Hoerner for example fielded 97 balls from a 2B position, so that cuts out about 25% of his ground ball opportunities.  From a pure counting perspective I don't see how stellar D purely at short can overcome that reduction in opportunities.

I am curious to see how some of the more advanced analytics teams handle this. For example, will we see a team switch the middle infielder to provide the "better fielder" usually the SS to the side of the field where a ground ball is expected? Or do they just leave them on the "normal" side and play it straight? 

[nvpacchi]

8 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I am curious to see how some of the more advanced analytics teams handle this. For example, will we see a team switch the middle infielder to provide the "better fielder" usually the SS to the side of the field where a ground ball is expected? Or do they just leave them on the "normal" side and play it straight? 

This came up in the Connor Norby thread, apparently the new rule states that a player that starts game as, let's say, the 3B or SS has to stay on the left side of the infield until there's a substitution and it gets reshuffled.

The first time I heard that it sounded like a great idea to help get around the shifting rules, but it looks like MLB planned ahead a bit.

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, wildcard said:

Westburg is supposed to have 55 speed and arm.  That is close to what Hays has.   The O's have ST to find out if  Westburg can fill that void in LF as Hays' backup.

Westburg might throw better from the outfield where he can wind up an throw on the run more, but he does not have a 55 arm. He's more like a 45 overall. 40 SS, 45 3B, 50 2B.

[Just Regular]

Some of why I feel called to hold Mateo are the baserunning rules in addition to the shift rules.

Theo Epstein's intent helping Manfred reprogram the on field product should favor the Mateo type guy at the DJ Stewart type guy's expense.     Unintended consequences will ensue.

If they've made basestealing "too easy", Mateo probably benefits from that quite a bit, even if the Club grinds through the risk of reducing his role.

We know likely Gunnar will play most of his years next to Holliday, now its just a matter of bridging those couple seasons.

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No, his defense hasn’t been lucky.  But that doesn’t mean it will carry over.  Manny had one of the greatest defensive seasons ever in 2013 and while he has always been excellent defensively, he never matched that year.

Manny was a doubles hitter in 2013, and after he bulked up to home run power, he lost some defensive ability. I don't think that will happen with Mateo.

I don't like the Lopez comparison, not because I think Mateo is likely to improve, but because what Mateo has been this year, once he got an everyday opportunity, when you count everything up, is an above-average MLB shortstop. Those don't grow on trees. Relievers do.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Manny was a doubles hitter in 2013, and after he bulked up to home run power, he lost some defensive ability. I don't think that will happen with Mateo.

I don't like the Lopez comparison, not because I think Mateo is likely to improve, but because what Mateo has been this year, once he got an everyday opportunity, when you count everything up, is an above-average MLB shortstop. Those don't grow on trees. Relievers do.

Very good to elite relievers don’t grow on trees.

[MCO'sFan]

39 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

This came up in the Connor Norby thread, apparently the new rule states that a player that starts game as, let's say, the 3B or SS has to stay on the left side of the infield until there's a substitution and it gets reshuffled.

The first time I heard that it sounded like a great idea to help get around the shifting rules, but it looks like MLB planned ahead a bit.

Thanks, I hadn't heard that. I guess it wasn't an original thought!

[LookinUp]

19 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I don't understand why people believe Mateo has reached his peak...but I think he could be a .280 

He hit .276 in August. His next best month was .250. Ironically, his best month last year was August as well, but again no other month was above .250.

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Question is, are there no 5’10” 1B because height is important to playing the position

Yes. Height matters simply because it lets the 1B reach more baseballs. You'd generally prefer a 6'3" guy as long as he's not a stiff.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'm not sure anyone commented on this post, but I'd like to.

I think the general consensus, and one I share, is that the shift ban will enhance the value of elite middle infield defenders, such as Mateo.

I will be interested to see, because shortstops are going to be positioned in a way that we are nearly 100% certain will result in fewer defensive chances. Mateo now plays almost where a standard 2B would stand against LHH, and most of his advantage is against LHH.  Next year he'll be forced to play 10, 15, 20 feet or more towards third. So will every other SS, but still.