Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And the team would be much better with him at 2b than 3b.  That's what I care about.

That’s you saying something. There’s no reasoning behind why this team would be better with Urías at 2B over one guy with an .890 OPS in AAA and another with over 1.000.  Ortiz almost guaranteed to be better defensively than Urías.  Westburg likely to be at least equal.  Plus, whatever you can get back from a team who likes Urías at 3B where he is most valuable.

[nvpacchi]

Mateo may have also maxxed out his defensive WAR value this year.  And it becomes a dangerous proposition banking on a glove first SS repeating the same WAR value next year.

Baltimore's rotation should improve next year just with Grayson coming in, and hopefully a big name FA signing.  Baltimore pitching is 22nd with striking out 20% of batters this year.  Assume that bumps up to 22% next year - that's 100 less batters that are striking out that aren't putting the ball in play.  And 40 less ground balls totals and maybe that takes 15 attempts away from whomever is playing SS roughly a 4% reduction in assists.

I think that's really just a long winded way of saying that continued success from Mateo at a macro level has to come from his bat,  I really want it to happen, because he is just an electric player.  But each passing day leaves me a little less optimistic.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Pickles said:

Then so be it.  I'm not sure I'd say "likely" but it is definitely possible.  You know what else is possible?  He hits better next year, puts up a 4+ WAR season, and has significant more trade value in 13 months.

I agree that’s also possible.  I’m not against finding out but my gut says the first scenario is more likely.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Possible but I would bet against that this year.  

I was just responding to SG’s “no scenario” statement.  I do think there’s a decent possibility that someone out of Mateo, Urias, Westburg and Ortiz gets traded.  Which one, I couldn’t say.  

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think you need to optimize your team.  You don’t do that by playing a guy who derives most of his value from defense, out of position, while you force prospects who are likely better offensively and defensively at 2B wait, because you’re scared they won’t be as good as a .700 OPS hitter who plays average defense at 2B.  You trade that player to a team which values him at 3B and get something of value for him.   The idea of creating a talent pipeline wasn’t to stuff old rags in it as soon as it started to flow.

Well, I think we're taking a differnt perspective on optimization.  I bolded the above because I don't think there's a real trade to be made there.  We're not getting anything of value there.  If he establishes himself further he can later be traded.  If he gets out played by a youngster and moves into a UTIL role, or even if he plays himself into one, I'm okay taking that risk because not really giving up anything.  It's kind of the point I was making with Mateo as well.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How about the scenario where we trade Westburg and/or Ortiz for some pitching?

I guess if they trade multiple young, cost controlled IFers maybe but that doesn’t seem likely and if they do, I hope Elias has a better plan than status quo on the IF.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I was just responding to SG’s “no scenario” statement.  I do think there’s a decent possibility that someone out of Mateo, Urias, Westburg and Ortiz gets traded.  Which one, I couldn’t say.  

If I traded Mateo I’d be thrilled to get Ortiz in return.

If I traded Urías I’d be thrilled to get Westburg back.

That’s where I’m at.  I think Mike holds onto his guys.

[Just Regular]

37 minutes ago, Pickles said:

If Big Buck Hunter taught me anything, it's that a Kudzu is an African animal, similar to a gazelle.

<Scrabble U-dump mode>

I think that's KUDU.

</Scrabble U-dump mode>

Infield-wise, good talk.   We're all burying these 2022 upstarts and turning forward.    For Urias projecting into a 2023 reserve role, how about him practicing some 1B over the winter too?    Gunnar's 1st month, I was really surprised the Orioles internal evaluations were I guess so low on "2B Urias" that they went with some 3B Urias, 2B Gunnar (first time in my life I've done this, but sure why not) configurations.

I think Mateo has flashed enough I'm okay if he is the Opening Day shortstop, even though Gunnar sitting down with Ben in the pregame shows the last two nights, answering where he'd go if he was just a kid in travel ball, said shortstop.    Everybody says shortstop.     Westburg will, Ortiz will.     Maybe Jackson Holliday will even play SS full-time in the minor leagues.

Westburg v. Ortiz - Ortiz's great play has been wonderful, but the Elias Draft Pool Dollar Scoreboard remains Westburg $2.3 mm, Ortiz $450k.    FIVE times more.     Westburg was meant to be this good, and I believe will get the first couple months of run.     Westburg has held serve, and has more AAA reps.

I don't know what shenanigans will happen with Cowser-Westburg going towards sustaining Orioles control over their 2029 seasons, but if they don't sign Long Term extensions in Spring Training, it'll probably be something.     The forecast will be for Gunnar and somebody like Jung-Casas-Volpe to get the automatic full seasons of service time earned by 2023 Rookie of the Year and runner-up.    Grayson won't get the playing time portion I don't think, even if he's better.    I hope he gets more than 2 innings next spring, but figure his 2022 "platform" may equate with a nice slow build up.   

Shenanigans aside, I hope to see 2B Westburg (and OF Cowser) early.    The Club would benefit from seeing how 3B Gunnar, SS Mateo, 2B Westburg mesh.     Gunnar and Westburg linked as thoroughbreds since COVID-times I think will work to Westburg's advantage in the short term, and as a result Ortiz-Norby will get challenged with AAA a bit more.

Am I getting the 40-man roster rules right that by Opening Day, after the Rule 5, Westburg could effectively be a "free add" as John Means goes to the 60-day DL in early 2023.    Means loses the 60-day free ride for the whole Rule 5 deal in the offseason, but the Orioles get it back once play resumes.

 

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I think we're taking a differnt perspective on optimization.  I bolded the above because I don't think there's a real trade to be made there.  We're not getting anything of value there.  If he establishes himself further he can later be traded.  If he gets out played by a youngster and moves into a UTIL role, or even if he plays himself into one, I'm okay taking that risk because not really giving up anything.  It's kind of the point I was making with Mateo as well.

All this talk about 3.2 WAR 28 year old Urías making peanuts and you don’t think we can get anything of value back?  Some lower level prospects?   A couple of potential bullpen arms?  Nothing?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All this talk about 3.2 WAR 28 year old Urías making peanuts and you don’t think we can get anything of value back?  Some lower level prospects?   A couple of potential bullpen arms?  Nothing?

It’s always amazing to me that our guys shouldn’t be traded because they are so good yet we can’t get any value for them.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If I traded Mateo I’d be thrilled to get Ortiz in return.

If I traded Urías I’d be thrilled to get Westburg back.

That’s where I’m at.  I think Mike holds onto his guys.

I don’t think that’s all the components to the equation.  If you can get more for Westburg or Ortiz than you can get for Mateo or Urias, you have to consider whether the player you are adding is a bigger upgrade at some other spot than whatever you are losing by sticking with Mateo and Urias and trading one of Westburg or Ortiz.  

Anyway, it’s all hypothetical.  I’m not one to speculate much on what Elias will do trade-wise.  He’ll have his own ideas about the relative merits of these four and anyone they could get in exchange.  
 

[wildcard]

I like the depth and the versatility of the the players the O's have.   For the most part I don't feel that players have to be locked into playing 162 games at any one position.     

Mateo offensive challenges probably does not keep him a shortstop for 162 games.   Henderson can play SS and 3B.   Urias, Westburg, and Ortiz can move around.  

The two players that need to have backups going into next year are Mountcastle at 1B and Hays at LF.   Westburg  at 6'3" makes a good target as a 1B backup.  He also has the offensive potential to not be much of a drop-off at 1B.   When Mountcastle goes into his slumps I would not mind him going to AAA to get straighten out and have Westburg play 1B.   Mountcastle has options.  Many of these players have to learn that there is a time to go for the homer and a time to just get a hit.

For me LF at Camden requires close to a centerfielder's range to cover the ground.  When Hays is healthy and hitting he is a 5 tool player.  But he has yet to get through a season showing those tools for a full season.  His first half this year was very good.  2nd half sucked.  The O's need a backup player for LF.     That may be Cowser sometime in the future.    Westburg is supposed to have 55 speed and arm.  That is close to what Hays has.   The O's have ST to find out if  Westburg can fill that void in LF as Hays' backup.

Overall I like the mix of position players that O's have going into 2023 ST.  And I am not afraid if some of the players with options play some at AAA if there in not room for them in the majors. Injuries and non performance happen.  Its good to have the deep.

Edited September 21, 2022 by wildcard

[Just Regular]

It is going to be amazing around here if resigning Rougned Odor is an early offseason transaction.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s all the components to the equation.  If you can get more for Westburg or Ortiz than you can get for Mateo or Urias, you have to consider whether the player you are adding is a bigger upgrade at some other spot than whatever you are losing by sticking with Mateo and Urias and trading one of Westburg or Ortiz.  

Anyway, it’s all hypothetical.  I’m not one to speculate much on what Elias will do trade-wise.  He’ll have his own ideas about the relative merits of these four and anyone they could get in exchange.  
 

I suspect that Mike likes the idea of the players drafted and developed under his regime coming up and making their mark.   Just as he did with Lopez, I think he’s going to seize the opportunity to get something for guys he got for nothing while they are at or close to peak value.   That would include Mateo and Urías but I think Santander falls into that peak value bucket as well.  

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

It is going to be amazing around here if resigning Rougned Odor is an early offseason transaction.