Anthony Santander - Now a Core Player Going Forward?

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I think that’s pretty laughable.  (Sorry, tntoriole).   Ortiz had a career OPS+ of 141, and 12 seasons well above Santander’s current 124.

Here’s a more realistic question: will Santander have a better career than Trey Mancini?  Mancini through age 27 had a 118 OPS+ and had been worth 7.3 rWAR.   Santander to this point has a 106 OPS+ and has been worth 4.9 rWAR.  Hopefully, he won’t have a life-threatening disease during his age 28 season and won’t have to deal with the after effects.  So, he could catch up on Trey a bit in the next few years.  But I’m not sure who I’d bet on to finish with the better career.

Mancini's value took something of a hit, perhaps a few wins, by being played out of position by a team locked into unwise contracts with Trumbo and Davis.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/28/2022 at 12:04 PM, jamalshw said:

I think this is a very interesting point. Mancini had a monster age-27 season in 2019 with a 134 OPS+.

Sorry to quibble, this wasn't even your main point.  But I don't know that I'd call the 59th-best season in modern Orioles history by OPS+ a monster year.  It was a very good year.  26 modern Orioles have had a 150 or higher.

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, we have entered the portion of the program in which we compare Oriole players to Hall of Famers.

Gunnar Henderson's OPS+ at age 21 is better than Robin Yount, Alan Trammell, Ernie Banks or Honus Wagner or Barry Larkin (weren't even in the majors yet!), Derek Jeter, Lou Boudreau, Bad Bill Dahlen, and ARod.  Although ARod was better at 20.  So, inner circle, or just normal Hall of Famer?

[Jammer7]

I think Santander is not a “core” player, but a solid 2nd tier guy for a good team. I think the swing decisions have helped him tremendously this season. I don’t think he improves greatly from here because of the following:

1. He has gotten bulkier, more muscular, before 2022. His swing is not one of bat speed, but strength. He has never been an elite bat speed guy. Hit the link and see that he only has two of the top 50 HR exit velocities since 2015 for the Orioles. We can point to a very difficult offensive environment this past season, and say that the exit velos are affected by the humidor, or whatever else, but this is not his first year. To me, it points to his lack of bat speed and length of swing. That matches my personal observations that his swing is long and slower than ideal for a core sort of guy. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=home\.\.run|&hfGT=R|PO|F|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=BAL|&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_h_distance_projected&metric_1_gt=110&metric_1_lt=&group_by=name-event&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_event_launch_speed=on&chk_event_hit_distance_sc=on#results
 

2. Unless he goes the PED route, as some others have obviously done, his bat speed and quickness are not elite. Ortiz’ bat speed increased significantly at 39 years of age, but that’s for another discussion. His OF play has suffered because of it. He is more of a lumbering corner guy these days. Personally, I do not want a full time DH, since I would rather have that spot open to rest Adley and others, while maintaining their bat in the lineup.

3. For me, he’s a great guy that I route for, but I can see him being traded. As much as I want him to stay as a switch-hitting force in the middle of the lineup, I just do not see him fitting in the grand scheme more than one more year. By then, Stowers, Cowser and whomever else, Mayo and Norby maybe, can be ready to man a corner OF slot.

There is no disputing his excellent improvement. It isn’t a small sample size anymore. I just think this is about as good as he gets, short of some huge boost in bat speed. His exit velocity isn’t poor, per se, but it isn’t elite among MLB standards. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

3. For me, he’s a great guy that I route for, but I can see him being traded. As much as I want him to stay as a switch-hitting force in the middle of the lineup, I just do not see him fitting in the grand scheme more than one more year. By then, Stowers, Cowser and whomever else, Mayo and Norby maybe, can be ready to man a corner OF slot.

I’m glad he’s finally had a healthy successful season!  But think this is the peak.  It looks repeatable though (assuming he continues taking balls).  I do think he’s a trade candidate but I think he means a lot to our offense heading into 2023.  So I don’t think he’s traded this winter or by the 2023 trade deadline.  Another good-to-have difficult decision for Elias.