Expectations, plus & minus

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a good point.  The O's are 9th in run scored in the AL.  128 runs behind the Yankees.   If the O's plan is to win the division they have to improve offensively.  Where do that improvement come from?

1) A full season of Adley and Gunnar.

2) Westburg looks like an everyday player somewhere.  He seem versatile enough to play 1B/2B/3B.  I don't think he plays much SS with Mateo, Gunnar and Ortiz available.  Westburg may be able to play some corner OF and he can DH.  He looks like he will hit may be a middle of the order bat.

3)A full year of Stowers basically replacing Mancini bat and playing RF/DH with Santander.  I don't know if that adds to the offense but it probably keeps it even.

4)  There is greater depth when guys get hurt or non perform with  Ortiz, Cowser and Norby.

5) Add a backup catcher the can field and hit.   Got to be better than Chirinos and Bemboom offensively.

Is that enough?   Beats me.

I think it's very reasonable to expect better run production solely from the internal upgrades available to this team.  I don't think it is necessary, or realistic, to argue that they must look to score as many runs as the Yankees in order to meet their goals.  For one, the Yankees won 100 games this season.  We don't need to win 100 games next year.  We could win 90 and still win the World Series.

I just don't think the Orioles are going to make a lot of top acquisitions, and if they were to do that, I suspect they would focus on the pitching side.

Austin Hays is an average regular, with upside for me.  He's not a "problem."  He's not "holding the team back."  They don't "need to upgrade" in LF.  Teams win championships all the time with worse regulars than Austin Hays.

If you can upgrade his spot, and it makes sense, go for it.  But it's hardly some prerequisite to success.  

[btdart20]

Pleasant surprises:  Elias/Holt, Lyles, Bautista, Mateo/Urias, MiLB IFers

* Elias put a ton of chips in identifying untapped potential talent (a "type") that Holt can develop.  And 2022, they both delivered.  As far as I'm concerned, these two are the real team co-MVPs.

* Lyles has been our anchor.  We all questioned the $ amount of the contract.  But Lyles lived up to the contract and then some!  All credit to Elias for identifying his guy early and finishing that deal!  There is no doubt the Lyles is Elias' guy.  If we're giving team MVP to a player not named Adley, Lyles gets my vote.  Not just for his stats, but for his stabilizing presence.

* Bautista is a nugget.  Not quite the same type of reclamation project that Elias/Holt get kudos for elsewhere, so the Mountain deserves his own mention.

* Mateo and Urias both have been great this year.  To start with Urias, much of his value has been defensively at 3B.  And he's added a little value offensively as well.  He's not the proto-typically master from a power-add position.  If he stays at 3B, then that lack needs to be made up elsewhere.  The best answer on paper is moving Urais to 2B, but does that work on the field?  Same deal for Mateo.  His value-add defense has overwhelmingly made up for glaring offensive holes in his game.  The average offensive bar at SS is lower, but that gap if Mateo is SS still needs to be covered by other positions.  Setting the Gunnar Effect aside, in pretty much any other year these two would have a stable job heading into the following season.  The fact that they don't is a testament to...

* The MiLB IFer development.  Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby have made a ton of noise this year.  I think a big piece of the IF depth goes to Elias' draft strategy (and yes, there's some luck involved).  Elias saw the gaping hole up the middle and targeted talent with early picks.  But man did our coaching staff and these players really perform!  1st World Team problems!  (If we could only have such "problems" in the rotation!)

 

Disappointments:  Hays, Mullins, 1B depth, fair weather fans

I think the team has been pretty good at identifying successes and failures and making a decision.  Part of me wanted to put Gutierrez as a failure, but honestly, he wasn't here long enough because Hyde/crew made a decision and moved on.  (Same type of things happened in the MiLB as well.  Cowser comes to mind in that his back of the card stats didn't jump off the page when he was promoted.  But Elias clearly saw indicators that said "Cowser is ready".)

* I hesitated putting Hays as a disappointment.  I (and others) said he would have the most negative impact with the new LF wall based on his 2020 batted ball profile.  And that proved true.  This past off-season I saw questions about who's really better between Mullins/Hays.  That narrative isn't there at this point, even with Mullins not repeating his 2021 numbers.  Hays is still talented.  And he would be a sell low candidate now.  But Hays can be is easily replaced with Cowser.  Very similar skill sets, but more upside with Cowser.  But an outfield of Cowser/Mullins/Hays could bring back the Anderson/Devereaux/Finley days (ok, maybe not quite).

* Mullins wasn't really a disappointment either.  This one is on me more than him.  My hopes for him were sky-high.  He's still a beast in CF and a top 5ish CF in the league. 

* 1B development is lacking.  We have a backlog of IF prospects who need PAs.  We have nobody blocking them from getting 1B reps.  And yes, I get that it could negatively impact trade value (which is dumb too).  No one but Elias to pin this one on.

* Fair weather fans still haven't come back.  I was talking to the wife of a big Oriole fan the other day.  She didn't know the O's were competitive this year.  She just assumed they were as bad as they've been the last few years.  I don't expect people to know the pipeline is promising and that some/many prognosticators saw some good things happening for the 2022 O's heading into the season.  But not knowing the ML team was on the verge of the playoffs?  I'm not entirely sure where to put the blame for this one.  There are some viewing habit changes, social media, cable decline, economic factors, Covid factors, and who knows how many other factors...  But the team needs to do a better job of marketing the team!  Get it done, Elias!  (And my buddy needs to up his game too!)

 

Other mentions:  Mountcastle, Santander, Odor

* For Mountcastle:  I really don't think they'll spend on a 1B because (assuming a limited FA budget) they'll prioritize pitching needs.  And we have no plan B internally for 1B currently.  I'm sure we could get creative in a trade but finding a trade partner willing to trade away a better 1B might be a fool's errand.  But I don't think that's a bad thing because there's a very good chance that Mountcastle bounces back next year (even with no plate discipline improvements). 

* Santander did have plate discipline improvements!  He still aggressive swinging at "his pitch" but did a better job recognizing what wasn't his pitch too.  I'm a believer.  Textbook Driveline Baseball analytic approach.  And it's what we're seeing in many of the MiLB development as well!  From an org perspective, Santander is at a crossroads.  But I think he means more to the O's offense in 2023 than he would get in a trade return.

* Odor...  What's there to say that hasn't already been said?  My statistical expectations for Odor was as low as they could get.  And yet he still managed to underperform my expectations...  On paper, I still don't get it.  But life doesn't happen on paper.  Part of me wants to give credit to Elias for knowing about the clubhouse reputation of Odor and Chirinos (and Elias definitely gets credit there), but Odor's passion/attitude/swagger/"it" was what this bunch of "losers" needed.  We just came off 110 loses, morale could have been terrible.  Sure, they're all professionals.  But they're people with emotions too.  I think Odor helped them look at those mountains as conquerable!

[now]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is this just a round-about way of saying that we need to get rid of Hays? If he's not any good, he can't play here, we can't expect other teams to offer the Orioles something of value in return.

I think he was playing at about 80% health most of the year.  I also think that "injury-prone" is mostly backward looking, that many injuries are bad luck and even repeated injuries that have healed may not predict future injuries.  You can find players who were labeled fragile who then ended up being healthy and great for years (example: Paul Molitor). There's clearly talent there with Hays, but I wouldn't blame them if they decided it's time to move on and find an option that is more likely to produce.

Good insight, I wanted to vent on Hays and added others for a bigger picture.  Also wanted to hear what others thought. Honestly I wasn't that aware of the impact of Hays's injury. Sort of like a couple of years ago, was it Jorge Lopez or (?) who pitched with a sore ankle and had a poor second half, then rebounded with a healthier next season. I guess that's true with some guys every year. 

Re. Santander, yes he was better than last year but set a high bar in 2020 (135 OPS+) so not really a surprise to see him do well. 

I overlooked Lyles who also maybe did better than I expected, but did fulfill the role Elias projected when signing him. 

Mullins regressed but it was hard to expect him to repeat the dominant offense of 2021. 

As for Stowers, for some reason I've not expected much from him: slow start to his Minors career... high K rates... mediocre BA... also he "looks" a little over his head (unlike Henderson)... but hey, can't argue with good MLB results so far!

I agree with adding props to the whole coaching & development team, even better than advertised. 

Edited October 3, 2022 by now

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, now said:

Good insight, I wanted to vent on Hays and added others for a bigger picture.  Also wanted to hear what others thought. Honestly I wasn't that aware of the impact of Hays's injury. Sort of like a couple of years ago, was it Jorge Lopez or (?) who pitched with a sore ankle and had a poor second half, then rebounded with a healthier next season. I guess that's true with some guys every year. 

Re. Santander, yes he was better than last year but set a high bar in 2020 (135 OPS+) so not really a surprise to see him do well. 

I overlooked Lyles who also maybe did better than I expected, but did fulfill the role Elias projected when signing him. 

Mullins regressed but it was hard to expect him to repeat the dominant offense of 2021. 

I agree with adding props to the whole coaching & development team, even better than advertised. 

I have no special insight into Hays, it just seems to me that he is capable of playing well.  But his injuries appear to precipitate slumps.  Baseball never really affords you the chance to heal from significant-but-not-disabling injuries, not until the offseason. My theory is that Hays has been a little bit hurt in about 80% of his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if one day he's healthy most of a season and is quite good.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I have no special insight into Hays, it just seems to me that he is capable of playing well.  But his injuries appear to precipitate slumps.  Baseball never really affords you the chance to heal from significant-but-not-disabling injuries, not until the offseason. My theory is that Hays has been a little bit hurt in about 80% of his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if one day he's healthy most of a season and is quite good.

The problem is that season was 2017.

[DrungoHazewood]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The problem is that season was 2017.

It can happen again. 

[Fiver6565]

I'm on board w/ the idea of keeping Hays, counting on him for 100 games, and bumping him down to the 7-8 spot.  Not sure yet what I'd like to see done in order to accomplish that, but we aren't far from it given he's batted 6-7 mostly here for a month or so (since Gunnar, really, I think).  Mountcastle needs bumped down as well, but I don't mind him in say the 5 hole w/ the power.

[Il BuonO]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Fighting for a roster spot next spring.   There’s a chance he could find himself as the starting 2B or LF.  More likely, he’s a reserve but his limitation to 2B in the infield makes it tough.  

It’s not a limitation if he’s seen as the front runner to start there and he hits. I don’t think anyone sees him as a starting second baseman.

[Il BuonO]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hays was playing at about 80% health most of the year.
 

….There's clearly talent there with Hays, but I wouldn't blame them if they decided it's time to move on and find an option that is more likely to produce.

This is where I’m at with Hays. There’s talent there, but the unknowns with health make me think, “Time to move on.”

[jdwilde1]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Who would replace Hays in the enlarged LF at Camden?   

- Cowser is suppose to have the range and the bat.  But he still needs some time at AAA.   

-Westburg speed is rated at 55 as is his arm.   He had over 100 RBI and is ready for a shot at the majors.   But he has not played the outfield.

Hays had a 830 OPS on June 25th before he got hurt.  With his speed and arm he is the guy of LF when healthy.   Just don't play him hurt.

See how Hays plays next season and how Cowser develops.   And give Westburg some time in LF in ST.

If they decide to move Hays and replace him through FA, Brandon Nimmo would be a very attractive replacement.  As the Mets CF, he will definitely have the range for OPACY LF, and he gives you another left-handed bat with very good OBP skills.

If they go in-house, I could see a platoon of Vavra and McKenna.  Vavra's MiLB splits scream for a platoon and his position flexibility give him some added value coming off the bench.  McKenna has acquitted himself well enough against LHP this year to support starting the season as the short side of the lefty-righty platoon.  Also, since McKenna is clearly the superior defensive outfielder of the two, he could come in as a defensive replacement in close games when Vavra starts.   This option is potentially more attractive if Elias and Co. are confident that Cowser is going to take over starting LF duties at some point in 2023.

I am sure some other folks have better ideas, but these are two ways of replacing Hays that came to mind.   

[Say O!]

Why not go platoon+ with Hays and Stowers a la Roenicke and Lowenstein?  Both flawed as full-time, but if limiting exposure, could get more as sum of parts?  Worked for Earl.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Say O!