Gunnar vs. Adley

[NCRaven]

If the cupboard was bare after promoting Rutschman and Henderson, I’d be worried.  Thankfully, it’s not; and, I’m not.

Edited October 7, 2022 by NCRaven

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Do you try to sign Gunnar now to long term deal? 

I think you have to.  Gunnar's agent is Boras.  If Gunnar puts up a couple of All-Star years, you can imagine what the price will be. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think you have to.  Gunnar's agent is Boras.  If Gunnar puts up a couple of All-Star years, you can imagine what the price will be. 

Boras will probably advise Henderson not to be in any hurry.  

[waroriole]

I don’t think I’m too far out there in saying Adley will be a Hall of Famer, barring injuries. 

[MarCakes21]

12 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Do you try to sign Gunnar now to long term deal? 

Probably a better idea than signing Adley unfortunately.  If I could buy out 2-3 years of Adley's FA I'd do that first, but I doubt he would unless he's certain he wants to be in Baltimore.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t think I’m too far out there in saying Adley will be a Hall of Famer, barring injuries. 

There have been 50 player-seasons where a catcher had at least 4 rWAR at ages 23, 24, or 25.  16 of those are from Hall of Famers (actually 19, Torre is listed as a manager in bb-ref's HOF database), including the Pudges, Piazza, Biggio, Carter, Torre, Simmons, Bench, Berra, Dickey, and Ewing.  And a number of players not yet eligible, including Salvador Perez, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Matt Wieters, Joe Mauer, and Russell Martin.

But it also includes Alex Avila, Gary Sanchez, Brian McCann, Jason Kendall, Charles Johnson, Butch Wynegar, Lance Parrish, Ray Fosse, Thurman Munson, Bill Freehan, Ed Bailey, Bob O'Farrell, Wally Schang, Ed McFarland, and Jack O'Connor.

So, yes, a 5-win season at 24 is a very positive indicator for a catcher and his HOF chances.  But injuries are almost a given for catchers, and there are any number of paths that could see Rutschman end up as good but not HOF good.

I remember in 2008 or 2009 I said Nick Markakis had about a 33% chance of a HOF career.  I still think that's a fair assessment, but he didn't get there.  In 2014 I probably said Manny had at least a 50% shot, and that's looks like the under.  Combining probabilities I think it's a better than even shot that at least one of Gunnar or Adley makes it.

Edited October 7, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

On 10/5/2022 at 1:19 PM, Frobby said:

So, he produced at a 7.2 rWAR pace in his rookie year, but that includes the slow first few weeks.   He was at about an 8 WAR pace from July - Sept.  I think it’s pretty realistic to think he can put up some 8 WAR seasons.  

How many 8 rWAR seasons have ever been logged by a catcher?  Answer: three.  1997 Piazza, 1982 Carter, 1972 Bench.

If Adley makes it to eight it'll put him in rarefied company.  Very, very elite.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How many 8 rWAR seasons have ever been logged by a catcher?  Answer: three.  1997 Piazza, 1982 Carter, 1972 Bench.

If Adley makes it to eight it'll put him in rarefied company.  Very, very elite.

I believe it will happen.   Quite honestly, I don’t think we’ve seen Adley’s best yet.   He’s going to hit better as a RHB, and he’s going to hit more homers.  

One of the things that amazed me about him, once he had his short adjustment period, was how his WAR just seemed to build from one week to the next.   With most players, they oscillate up and down and hopefully the ups outnumber the downs.  Adley practically never had a down once he got going.   Maybe for a day or two, but not much longer than that.  Even when he had a ten-day cold streak at the plate in late August/early Sept. it seemed like his WAR just kind of stayed flat because of his defensive value.

Conversely, I don’t think we’ve really seen Adley ever really go on a tear like he eventually will.  He never hit 3 homers in the same week or hit homers in consecutive games, for example.   He did have that one stretch where he was on base at least twice for 11 games in a row or something like that, but he never truly went nuts.  

So, call me bullish on Adley’s chances of putting up one or more 8 WAR seasons, maybe as soon as 2023.