Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, mlrhode said:

Yes, Hays for Rogers. both coming off down years

Can’t imagine the Marlins would do that.

[MarCakes21]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Article on Eutaw Street Report talks  about how the Os should go after Trevor Rogers. 
 

Like that idea?

I do, but we have no OF depth unless we sign someone.  Why not trade where you're strong from like Westburg/Ortiz to see if you can catch lightening on Rogers

[Woody Held]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Article on Eutaw Street Report talks  about how the Os should go after Trevor Rogers. 
 

Like that idea?

Yes.  I think he a great fit 

[clapdiddy]

I like the Rogers idea.   Yardball85 also mentioned Stripling as a potential FA pickup in an SI article.   I'd be OK with both of those guys.

Edited November 10, 2022 by clapdiddy

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Picking up former draftees on waivers is one thing.  Signing one for 30M per year when you have Mateo/Ortiz/Holliday in the organization would be befuddling for a team that needs to be payroll conscious.

Letting Correa walk and replacing him with Jeremy Peña worked out pretty well for the Astros.   That’s what Elias wants to create here.

So, I typical Oriole fan mistake is counting on Ortiz and Holliday before they ever get here. Having a productive proven player and having a top prospect knocking down the door gives you options. I like Mateo but he would need to stop being so dam streaky to have real value. Otherwise, why do we need to add any position player beyond a back up catcher. Will the OF that you have to pay more than Santander be incrementally better that it’s offsets the monetary difference? Will the 1B/DH type that you replace Mountcastle with for $20 million more do that? If so why were we so bad at scoring runs? 
 

As I mentioned, I’m not fond of the idea of Correa. I’m just stating what I think Elias is going to do.

 

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/46461-sports-illustrateds-top-50-fa-predictions-predicts-correa-stripling-and-wacha-to-os/

Apparently I’m not the only one who thinks so.

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Roll Tide

[AnythingO's]

I would advise caution when estimating what Elias will or can spend. He has always put caveats on every optimistic comment he makes. The most concrete thing I have seen to date was back in August when he said:

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.  “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively

If the arb raises are in the $20-25 M range, IMO the FA pool is in the $30-35 M range. Given the family feud and unsettled MASN dispute, possible sale of GNATS, I think JA is going to keep the money from MLB, MASN, etc in the family coffers he controls. I am NOT blaming Elias if all he gets done is a $15 M SP, a $10 M bat, a backup C and some spare parts for the BP.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Interesting that he said a starter and 1 or 2 bats. I would have expected the inverse of that.

Ah well, bring on the most interesting Orioles offseason in half a decade!

[Just Regular]

A junk stat as free agency opens next hour.    RosterResource keeps a running Power Ranking of all SP, akin to seeding tennis players.    The higher the sum of ranks, the worse your unit is in the aggregate.

A few of the 75 AL roles (guys who did not throw in 2022 MLB like Maeda, Turnbull, Paxton and Grayson) are unlisted - I am giving them a dummy 200 for this exercise.     AL Rotations:

<300 : SEA, HOU, CLE, NYY       (TB should probably be here too but Glasnow currently sandbagged at 172)

454-527: CHW, TBR, MIN, TOR, LAA

>650: BAL, OAK, TEX, DET, KCR, BOS

 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I have a feeling that Elias knows most of what he plans to do this offseason.

The market could change, but I'd wager he knows what trades he's targeting and what FAs he's targeting. 

He has given me the impression that he’s very flexible about what he may do, depending on the market.  I don’t think he has plans that are set in stone.  

[Just Regular]

Here's a 5-year old thread from when Alex Cobb got his Qualifying Offer at the beginning of the offseason, as we start to see how Elias will comport himself with respect to Bassitt, Rodon and up.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

 

If the arb raises are in the $20-25 M range, IMO the FA pool is in the $30-35 M range. Given the family feud and unsettled MASN dispute, possible sale of GNATS, I think JA is going to keep the money from MLB, MASN, etc in the family coffers he controls. I am NOT blaming Elias if all he gets done is a $15 M SP, a $10 M bat, a backup C and some spare parts for the BP.

The Arb raises are a little lower than you’re guessing.  MLBTR is estimating our players will get $21.5 mm in arbitration, but to figure out “raises” you have to subtract what those players made this year, which is about $6.8 mm. So, that’s maybe $15 mm in Arb raises, not $20-25 mm.  In that case, I guess you would think our FA budget is in the $35-45 mm range?

[Just Regular]

Poison pills - Bassitt, Ty. Anderson, M. Perez, Eovaldi

No poison pills - Taillon, Taijuan, Manaea

I think Anderson and Perez might take them.   To the extent TEX is a team also aspirationally near AL 6th best in 2023, I am rooting for M. Perez to take $20mm of their money.     Eovaldi feels like could be either way.

 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So, I typical Oriole fan mistake is counting on Ortiz and Holliday before they ever get here. Having a productive proven player and having a top prospect knocking down the door gives you options. I like Mateo but he would need to stop being so dam streaky to have real value. Otherwise, why do we need to add any position player beyond a back up catcher. Will the OF that you have to pay more than Santander be incrementally better that it’s offsets the monetary difference? Will the 1B/DH type that you replace Mountcastle with for $20 million more do that? If so why were we so bad at scoring runs? 
 

As I mentioned, I’m not fond of the idea of Correa. I’m just stating what I think Elias is going to do.

 

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/46461-sports-illustrateds-top-50-fa-predictions-predicts-correa-stripling-and-wacha-to-os/

Apparently I’m not the only one who thinks so.

 

I hear you.  You could be right but I think both you and SI are wrong in this case.  I guess we'll see.

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The difference is (and this same logic applies to Santander) what is your belief in the player.

For example, I want to deal Santander because I don’t believe he replicates what he did in 2022 and I don’t think he should be relied on to stay healthy. But I also recognize that you have to replace him if you do move him.  I would just rather make sure I capitalize on his all time high value.

Mullins is similar in that I want to cash in on him albeit for different reasons. 
 

Now, I probably wouldn’t sign Nimmo to replace him but if the contract is low enough, I would consider it.

Its buying and selling.  Case to made for keeping and buying though.

You are assuming that other GMs value the player based on most recent year instead of their body of work. Most trades happen not because of differing valuations but because teams have different needs. I would trade Hays or Santander more because we have cheaper viable replacements than as a bet on their value. Of course I would seek to maximize their value and hope to find an overpay.

[Jim'sKid26]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Poison pills - Bassitt, Ty. Anderson, M. Perez, Eovaldi

No poison pills - Taillon, Taijuan, Manaea

I think Anderson and Perez might take them.   To the extent TEX is a team also aspirationally near AL 6th best in 2023, I am rooting for M. Perez to take $20mm of their money.     Eovaldi feels like could be either way.

 

Wow, that makes the vast majority of these guys very unappealing for the O's. 

You have to believe Pederson, Perez, and possibly Eovaldi take the QO. Rizzo may be on the fence. 

Interesting point is Correa is not on this list......just sayin'