Rutschman named ROY finalist

[Frobby]

No surprise here, except that the third finalist was Steven Kwan over Jeremy Pena.  According to Fangraphs, this is the first time two rookies (Rutschman and Rodriguez) exceeded 5 fWAR in the same season since 2001, when Pujols and Ichiro did it.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/before-handing-out-awards-a-moment-of-appreciation-for-the-2022-rookie-class/

[Sports Guy]

Rodriguez will win.

Kwan really should finish beat out  his college teammate for second. 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Sports Guy

[sevastras]

This is an interesting article in Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2022/11/10/orioles-adley-rutschman-a-worthy-al-rookie-of-the-year-finalist/amp/

”On pure value alone, Rutschman would have ranked 5th in the AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez and Trout.”

[Just Regular]

C'mon, let's be serious.    Steven Kwan displayed The Will to Win and got his team to the playoffs.

PA - Kwan 638, Rutschman 470

AVG - Kwan .298, Rutschman .254

SB - Kwan 19, Rutschman 4

What else could there be?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

A little surprised that Kwan beat out Pena after Pena bagged the WS MVP in addition to his excellent season.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

A little surprised that Kwan beat out Pena after Pena bagged the WS MVP in addition to his excellent season.

Postseason has nothing to do with these awards.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Postseason has nothing to do with these awards.

To be clear, the votes occur before the postseason is even played.  They just announce them later.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Postseason has nothing to do with these awards.

Unless the votes are locked in prior to the playoffs- and maybe they are, I don't know- then I am sure it does affect how they see the candidates to some degree, even if only on a subconscious level.

If they are locked in before that, then sure. Obviously it can't affect it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Unless the votes are locked in prior to the playoffs- and maybe they are, I don't know- then I am sure it does affect how they see the candidates to some degree, even if only on a subconscious level.

If they are locked in before that, then sure. Obviously it can't affect it.

 

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, the votes occur before the postseason is even played.  They just announce them later.  

Well, there ya go.

[Moose Milligan]

Julio will win this and he'll win it by a lot.  Obviously I am biased but I believe AR should win it, his value was tremendous.  At the very least, it should be closer than it will be.  

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Julio will win this and he'll win it by a lot.  Obviously I am biased but I believe AR should win it, his value was tremendous.  At the very least, it should be closer than it will be.  

Ditto.   

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Julio will win this and he'll win it by a lot.  Obviously I am biased but I believe AR should win it, his value was tremendous.  At the very least, it should be closer than it will be.  

Adley really should finish third.  Kwan played in more games!  

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley really should finish third.  Kwan played in more games!  

3 rookies on 3 teams in contention. 2 lead their teams to the playoffs and 1 didn’t. Case closed. Adley 3rd. 

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley really should finish third.  Kwan played in more games!  

More plate appearances, more SB, better BA, and the playoff!  Cut and dry.

[Just Regular]

I believe tomorrow's the big day for rookies.    At stake is maybe whether Adley's 2028 will be a FA year or an Arb4 season.

I know some have examined the Arb share relative to market value - the mnemonic I use for the three regular Arb years is start at 25%, then increase 50% per year.     So back of envelope, 25-38-55 is about an Arb1-2-3 sequence.   Santander a medium good Arb3 headed toward $7.5mm - if he maintains his quality in 2023 he may earn his way to $12-$15mm AAV for one or two years at his peak.

Arb4's are only about the Top 20% of players by service time - Adley's big chunk in 2022 puts him in that mix - another 50% bump would make ~55% a touch over 80%.    7-win Adley with inflation - let's say he's a $40mm/AAV guy near 2030, though catcher load once near 30 may limit that some.     Mauer and Realmuto at $23 still the top of the scale today.

I'll guesstimate that things generally going well, the 2028 delta for 2nd place Adley vs. 3rd place Adley is perhaps $20mm from a restricted BAL market, or $30-35mm from the market at large.     

A $10-15mm delta that maps to a Comp A draft pick with pool allotment about $2-3mm, if you allow Cohen's share draft pool dollars represent about 5X market value.