So...uh, when does free agency start?

[tabletop]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Cot's this morning had 27th place TBR's Opening Day forecast at 62.6 to 29th place BAL's 44.3, so this move takes them to basically 75/45ths of the Orioles momentarily.     The Rays.

There is not a single reason that with the current openings on the roster that the payroll should be below Tampa Bay. It's still early in the offseason but if they end up spending less than the Rays it will be hard to justify after all the talk about "lifting off".

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, tabletop said:

That could be a really nice signing by the Rays. He's young for a free agent pitcher and his peripherals suggest his ERA's should have been lower over the last few years. I'm sure getting him a real defense behind him will do wonders with how he pounds the strike zone. The Rays and Red Sox both offered him 3/40. Makes you wonder what the O's are doing.

I had him as a 16 K-BB last year like Taillon and Bassitt, but he kind of faked his way there with a 30+ in his handful of September relief innings airing it out.     His Starter Only split was just a 14.

Eflin's features for me were young and demonstrated ability for his stuff to play up in a more concentrated role, not something you'd figure a Jordan Lyles or Chris Bassitt type guy could do.     I am sure in Octobers for Tampa he won't be pitching long.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, tabletop said:

There is not a single reason that with the current openings on the roster that the payroll should be below Tampa Bay. It's still early in the offseason but if they end up spending less than the Rays it will be hard to justify after all the talk about "lifting off".

The talk about “lifting off” had nothing to do with spending.  However, I will be very surprised if our OD payroll is not higher than what Tampa’s is currently projected to be.   

[tabletop]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

The talk about “lifting off” had nothing to do with spending.  However, I will be very surprised if our OD payroll is not higher than what Tampa’s is currently projected to be.   

Sure, it doesn't specifically mean spending but how does one "lift off" and claim to be a serious contender with a payroll lower than Tampa's?

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

The talk about “lifting off” had nothing to do with spending.  However, I will be very surprised if our OD payroll is not higher than what Tampa’s is currently projected to be.   

To me lift off is very strong language.  It conveys a very strong increase in momentum.  

[Going Underground]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

The talk about “lifting off” had nothing to do with spending.  However, I will be very surprised if our OD payroll is not higher than what Tampa’s is currently projected to be.   

Tampa is going after Nimmo or will try to get one of the more expensive outfielders.Plus a first base /DH type. Not sure the Orioles will be higher 

Tampa is paying Glasnow $25 million next year.Franco signed a $182,000,000 contract but most of the big money starts in 2026 of the eleven years. Eflin contract is $11 million the first two years and $18 mil the last year.  

 

[waroriole]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me lift off is very strong language.  It conveys a very strong increase in momentum.  

Check out the rocket scientist over here….

I keep seeing a lot of dissecting Elias’ wording from some interview over the summer. I saw you say earlier, I’ll believe it when they’re signed. And that’s the way I’m looking at it. Fool me 27 times shame on you, but you won’t get me that 28th time. 
 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Check out the rocket scientist over here….

I keep seeing a lot of dissecting Elias’ wording from some interview over the summer. I saw you say earlier, I’ll believe it when they’re signed. And that’s the way I’m looking at it. Fool me 27 times shame on you, but you won’t get me that 28th time. 
 

Liftoff requires just enough fuel to get off the ground.  If you have too much fuel, it will keep you down on the ground.  
“Zen GM strategy” 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Eflin contract is $11 million the first two years and $18 mil the last year.  

Guess now I know someone who is a strong trade candidate in two years (along with someone in their 41-50 range for someone else's not yet required to be on the 40 man talent).

It is guaranteed money so not imaginary like Jordan Lyles' flattery option.

I expect that if Elias' Economic Analyst's inventive contract structures are acceptable to Good Players, whatever contracts BAL ends up closing could have stuff like this.   

NFL-NBA style capology slowly building in MLB.     I wonder what the rules say if the 2025 Mets pay Eflin all $18mm of his money, whether he still gets to have a $13mm cap number for NYM tax calculation purposes.

[tabletop]

In terms of fWAR and fWAR being worth $8 million Eflin has been worth more than 11 million every season since 2017.

[Going Underground]

55 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Guess now I know someone who is a strong trade candidate in two years (along with someone in their 41-50 range for someone else's not yet required to be on the 40 man talent).

It is guaranteed money so not imaginary like Jordan Lyles' flattery option.

I expect that if Elias' Economic Analyst's inventive contract structures are acceptable to Good Players, whatever contracts BAL ends up closing could have stuff like this.   

NFL-NBA style capology slowly building in MLB.     I wonder what the rules say if the 2025 Mets pay Eflin all $18mm of his money, whether he still gets to have a $13mm cap number for NYM tax calculation purposes.

I think the Rays structured his contract  that why because Glasnow is five mil this year and 25 next year,so his last year would be when Glasnow is probably traded by then.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me lift off is very strong language.  It conveys a very strong increase in momentum.  

I agree. He did not say anything specific about spending money but did say the strategic situation was fundamentally changing. That doesn't necessarily mean spending money on free agency but it does suggest a new focus on winning now. Could mean trades but either way we should be expecting some talent acquisition and I would think higher payroll.

 

[Yardball85]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

The talk about “lifting off” had nothing to do with spending.  However, I will be very surprised if our OD payroll is not higher than what Tampa’s is currently projected to be.   

I disagree.  While it did not directly state that we would be spending, it seemed to mean that we would be "lifting off,' i.e. trying to win next year, i.e. bringing in players to reach that goal. 

[tabletop]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/orioles-checking-in-on-free-agent-shortstops.html

[dzorange]

24 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I disagree.  While it did not directly state that we would be spending, it seemed to mean that we would be "lifting off,' i.e. trying to win next year, i.e. bringing in players to reach that goal. 

He also mentioned that this is the beginning of a 10 year window.

The Orioles are going to make some moves no question, and this team will be in a better position to win than they were at the end of last season. But it's year one of a ten year window. They are still prioritizing the long term plan, which should make expectations a little more tepid than "lift off". I'm not expecting any "wow" moves this offseason. But it could be a number of moves that add up to a sizeable increase in payroll.