So...uh, when does free agency start?

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Many of his peripherals and statcast numbers were subpar.

There are very, very few pitchers that have average or above statcast numbers in every category. Beyond not throwing as hard as he did in the minors there really isn't much wrong with the underlying pitch data.  If he throws strikes like he did last year, in the offensive environment of OPACY, there's little chance that he experiences a 1.5 run increase in ERA imo. 

This type of discussion brings to mind a guy like Mountcastle. His batted ball data was largely amazing and suggested that when he made contact he was expected to have top 5-10% of hitters type numbers which is obviously not even close to the numbers he ended with. I would absolutely not bank on anything like that next year. I really just don't think OPACY's new dimensions are accurately weighted in these type of stats yet. It was a drastic change that is pretty much completely unprecedented. I take these projections with a huge grain of salt right now. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So no upside value on a 26 year old that really just completed a full season in the majors?

Maybe, maybe not. I am just reporting the facts. Like I said though, he has done enough to start the year in the rotation and we'll see what happens from there.

 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

There are very, very few pitchers that have average or above statcast numbers in every category. Beyond not throwing as hard as he did in the minors there really isn't much wrong with the underlying pitch data.  If he throws strikes like he did last year, in the offensive environment of OPACY, there's little chance that he experiences a 1.5 run increase in ERA imo. 

This type of discussion brings to mind a guy like Mountcastle. His batted ball data was largely amazing and suggested that when he made contact he was expected to have top 5-10% of hitters type numbers which is obviously not even close to the numbers he ended with. I would absolutely not bank on anything like that next year. I really just don't think OPACY's new dimensions are accurately weighted in these type of stats yet. It was a drastic change that is pretty much completely unprecedented. I take these projections with a huge grain of salt right now. 

I don’t believe the Statcast “x” numbers are ballpark specific. But, you can look at players on the same team to get a sense.  The difference between Kremer’s xERA and actual ERA is drastically higher than the other starting pitchers.  

[Moose Milligan]

Ugh, just say no to Correa.  

He's got SUCH a punchable face, for starters.  Second, we've got a good amount of SS talent in the system unless they don't think Henderson or Holladay will stick at SS.  

I mean, I wouldn't be THAT upset if we got Correa...

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ugh, just say no to Correa.  

He's got SUCH a punchable face, for starters.  Second, we've got a good amount of SS talent in the system unless they don't think Henderson or Holladay will stick at SS.  

I mean, I wouldn't be THAT upset if we got Correa...

I definitely prefer someone like Trea Turner. 

But also - it feels like every winning baseball team is required to have one punchable face guy. Maybe that's the secret to it all. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

 

This person I’m sure has reputable sources.  

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Grayson's  limitations is a concern for next season. Realistically was should not expect over 120. Obviously we know the need for a TOR, but we do need a solid innings eater too. 

While I like Wells, Kremer and Bradish/Voth to an extent, I'm not sure they can be counted on for getting us those yeoman's innings more time than not. 

 

Which is why I say around 35-40 IP in the first half and say about 65-70 in 2nd half. That allows him in theory to make some postseason starts 

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

Let’s get Rodon or Bassitt and Kluber. They will give us 160-200IP. Kluber can slot into the three spot depending how good GROD.

Bassitt/Rodon

Kluber

GROD

Kremer

Bradish/Wells

Would 2yr 20 million get it done for Kluber? Bassit 3yr 60million?

Voth, Wells or Bradish in the pen, and eventually Means will provide depth and to take over or help with innings limits that GROD will probably have. The Orioles definitely can make this happen. Left handed bat, back up catcher, and maybe another good reliever too? We do these things and I believe we can win the division. 
 

I would love Kluber as a second pick up. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Which is why I say around 35-40 IP in the first half and say about 65-70 in 2nd half. That allows him in theory to make some postseason starts 

How are they going to keep him at 35-40 IP in the first half?

Keep him in the minors?  Put him in the bullpen?  Make him an opener? 

I don't think any of those are good for his development.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How are they going to keep him at 35-40 IP in the first half?

Keep him in the minors?  Put him in the bullpen?  Make him an opener?

Have him throw nothing but batting practice fastballs in game situations.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, owknows said:

Have him throw nothing but batting practice fastballs in game situations.

The Tillman Technique? 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Tillman Technique? 

That got a genuine belly-laugh

[dzorange]

43 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

This person I’m sure has reputable sources.  

3 followers isn’t enough for you?

Edited November 30, 2022 by dzorange

[dzorange]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

2374 followers 

That’s not that many followers and did you even read his bio? What is the point of even posting these? Do you actually think there is something of substance here?

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, dzorange said:

That’s not that many followers and did you even read his bio? What is the point of even posting these? Do you actually think there is something of substance here?

Posted 3 …I know you’d complain about this one.The other has like 2500

Edited November 30, 2022 by Roll Tide