How many innings do you think Grayson Rodriguez will throw in 2023?

[Frobby]

I saw that Tony posted in another thread that we should not expect Grayson Rodriguez to throw more than 120 innings in 2023.   I’m wondering if others agree with that.   That would be a 44.1 inning increase over 2022.

Personally, I think that’s too conservative.  There are several examples of young pitchers who had bigger increases than that this year.  Obviously every team will look at this differently, and the O’s may be more conservative than some teams.   But I wouldn’t hesitate to push Grayson closer to 140, and possibly beyond that if data shows his stuff isn’t fading as the season progresses.   
 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Frobby

[interloper]

I always guess very pessimistic on these types of polls because I just assume all the pitchers will get hurt. 

For example, Wells only threw 103 IP. Kremer threw 125. Neither of these guys had MAJOR injuries requiring surgery or anything, but they still missed months of time. Grayson himself only threw 75 innings last year due to injury.

Anything beyond 120 seems like a pretty big stretch to me.

Edited November 30, 2022 by interloper

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I saw that Tony posted in another thread that we should not expect Grayson Rodriguez to throw more than 120 innings in 2023.   I’m wondering if others agree with that.   That would be a 44.1 inning increase over 2022.

Personally, I think that’s too conservative.  There are several examples of young pitchers who had bigger increases than that this year.  Obviously every team will look at this differently, and the O’s may be more conservative than some teams.   But I wouldn’t hesitate to push Grayson closer to 140, and possibly beyond that if data shows his stuff isn’t fading as the season progresses.   
 

So you want to push him to pull a lat again?

[btdart20]

I'll play contrarian.  I think they'll target 110-120 range.  But in the heat of passion, we sometimes forget our protection.

[Aristotelian]

I went 100-119 assuming regular season. If we're including the playoffs I might go higher! 

[Frobby]

Some info I posted in another thread:

The rookie IP leader this year was Joe Ryan, who threw 147 innings (plus 3 in the minors) after throwing a total of 92.2 between the majors and the minors in 2022.   That’s a 55 inning increase, 58 if you include the 3 MiL innings.   Apply that to Rodriguez and it gets you to 130. 

The Twins certainly didn’t baby Ryan.  He missed a few starts in late May/early June.  He had starts of 7, 7.2 and 7 innings in September.   

Seattle’s George Kirby threw 130 innings in the majors and 26 in the minors, after throwing 67.2 innings in the minors in 2021.  That’s an 89.2 inning increase.  He had three six-inning starts in September. By the way, he also made a relief appearance and a 7-inning start in the postseason, not included in the numbers above.

[Roll Tide]

I said 130 but close enough

[justD]

I agree with @interloper. I said 110-119 not because of org limits but because I anticipate time on the IL for one reason or another. 

[Frobby]

Just now, justD said:

I agree with @interloper. I said 110-119 not because of org limits but because I anticipate time on the IL for one reason or another. 

I probably should have phrased my question differently.  I was meaning to ask what’s the max the O’s will let him go if he’s healthy.  

[emmett16]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I probably should have phrased my question differently.  I was meaning to ask what’s the max the O’s will let him go if he’s healthy.  

That would change my calculus as well.  I think they should let him go 140-150 and imagine with limits and some time on IL he will go 100-120. 

[WillyM]

In 2012, his first full season in the majors, Stephen Strasburg pitched 159 innings for the Nationals.  He was furious when he was shut down in early September, but the Nats said they wanted to save his arm for the future.

It took a while, but the strategy paid off in 2019, when a healthy Strasburg went 5-0 in the postseason and Washington won it all.

I doubt the Orioles will let Rodriguez go more innings than Strasburg did in his first full season.

[Sports Guy]

130-150.

Let’s not forget that Hall just threw 65 more innings in 2022 than he did in 2021 and he’s not the big guy GRod is.

[Winter]

140-159 including playoffs 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, WillyM said:

In 2012, his first full season in the majors, Stephen Strasburg pitched 159 innings for the Nationals.  He was furious when he was shut down in early September, but the Nats said they wanted to save his arm for the future.

It took a while, but the strategy paid off in 2019, when a healthy Strasburg went 5-0 in the postseason and Washington won it all.

I doubt the Orioles will let Rodriguez go more innings than Strasburg did in his first full season.

In 2012 they should have kept him on the shelf until partway through the season so he could pitch into September/October. But IIRC the Nats were a surprise team that year and played well above anyone’s expectations. 
 

I know I’m probably the only one that’ll say this, but that’s what I’d like to see the Orioles do. Shelve him until 3/4 of the way through May so he doesn’t hit whatever innings limit they’re going to hold him to before the season is over. 
 

Yes, I realize the games in April and May matter. But we’re playing a balanced schedule this year, more games against less competition from other divisions, not as much against the AL East. I’m confident that this team should be able to hold its own while G-Rod is on the shelf. 
 

I think we’d all be pissed if we’re in playoff contention come September and he’s shut down because he’s reached an innings limit.  If they’re going to have to figure out where in the season to slot his 125-ish innings, I’d prefer it to be towards the back half of the season and allow rooM for playoff baseball. 

[MijiT88]

I think if he stays healthy there wont be anything stopping him this season. I can see them pulling him after 5-6 innings early on but as time goes on and he keeps progressing those limits will fade and he will rack up the innings this year. IF he stays healthy