Orioles interested in Syndergaard?

[MarCakes21]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can dream and that’s fine..but it’s not realistic.  Thor is. Rodon isn’t.  Bassitt and Eovaldi probably aren’t.

And when I say realistic, I’m not defining that as what the Os can do. I’m defining as what they are very likely to do.

I don't disagree.  We're still in dreaming time of year.  Reality sets in come mid-Jan or Feb with what pieces are left and the French Cordero's of the world.

I just think they have the pocketbooks now to compete for these guy if they wanted to, not just can.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

It's funny how much of a difference it makes for some... and it makes none at all for others.

The Orioles had a handful of pitchers that had some pretty amazing differences in Home/Away splits last year. I spent part of the morning populating a spreadsheet with the 5 pitchers I thought benefitted most. Those being Kremer, Lyles, Perez, Zimmermann and Vespi.

I think the equation is a little more complex than Home Runs. It's the confidence to pitch aggressively when you might otherwise worry about home runs that makes the difference I think.

None of this matters if the stuff isn’t good. 
 

Now, the positives for Thor are the walk rate and that he limited hard contact last year.  But the lack of missed bats and the huge drop off in K rate are big concerns.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't disagree.  We're still in dreaming time of year.  Reality sets in come mid-Jan or Feb with what pieces are left and the French Cordero's of the world.

I just think they have the pocketbooks now to compete for these guy if they wanted to, not just can.

They can always compete for anyone. But they aren’t going to do it and Elias is good with that because the org he came from and learned from doesn’t do it either. That’s the model they will follow.

[NCRaven]

The Marlins aren’t getting Gunnar and I doubt we’re selling them on Hays as an everyday center fielder.

[MarCakes21]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They can always compete for anyone. But they aren’t going to do it and Elias is good with that because the org he came from and learned from doesn’t do it either. That’s the model they will follow.

2016: Morton, Beltran, Reddick (4 years)

2017: Rondon (RP), Smith (RP)

2018: Brantley, Miley, Chirinos

Now all of those were mostly lower years, but the money was there at market value +.  They need was different for their teams than ours though.

[BRobinsonfan]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I mean, he’s decent enough.  Just not at the top of the rotation.  

Jordan Lyles was "decent enough" and cheaper.  

[tabletop]

Thor’s not bad and has a much better track record than the current group of starters. I wouldn’t want him to be the only signing but if he’s the 3rd best they add that’s pretty good.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

2016: Morton, Beltran, Reddick (4 years)

2017: Rondon (RP), Smith (RP)

2018: Brantley, Miley, Chirinos

Now all of those were mostly lower years, but the money was there at market value +.  They need was different for their teams than ours though.

The money isn’t the issue.  It’s the years. The Astros don’t sign guys to big long term deals. The Os will pay some money here and there but the bigger fish will get the bigger deals. Those are the players are taking about here.

Lopez and Rogers have 3-4 WAR upside. They aren’t going to get anyone better than that.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a lot more downside than that.

And Chris Davis kept himself in top physical condition as well.

 

I know that I have no chance of making even the slightest of impact in your opinion of Syndergaard. Having said that, the importance of physical condition to a pitcher, as opposed to a 1B/DH seems to render your comparison here rather nonsensical. 

Having said that, a couple of things to consider, all stats from Baseball Savant:

He threw his 2S/sinker far more than his 4SFB in 2022, (31% vs 15%). The reason is rather obvious as his BAA for the 4S was .316 and for the 2S was .235. So you could make the case that shelving his 4SFB altogether might make him a bit more effective without needing to add velocity.

His SL, which he threw 22% of the time, was his best pitch (BAA= .218). If he throws that a bit more, once again without needing to improve velocity, is he more effective?

His CH was not an effective pitch for him, (BAA=.316), yet he threw it 20% of the time. Yet his CV was very effective (.255) and he only threw it 11% of the time. Is this another situation where more CV and less CH makes him more effective?

This seems like a pitcher who would benefit from an analytical approach to his pitch selection. I think he is likely to gain a small amount of velocity in 2023 but doubt he gets back to being the flamethrower he once was. But if he can utilize the pitches he is most effective with more often he might be a very valuable addition to the rotation. Chris Holt and colleagues are pretty good at getting the best out of their guys. Thor might be a bounce back kind of guy. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
spelling

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I know that I have no chance of making even the slightest of impact in your opinion of Syndergaard. Having said that, the importance of physical condition to a pitcher, as opposed to a 1B/DH seems to render your comparison here rather nonsensical. 

Having said that, a couple of things to consider, all stats from Baseball Savant:

He threw his 2S/sinker far more than his 4SFB in 2022, (31% vs 15%). The reason is rather obvious as his BAA for the 4S was .316 and for the 2S was .235. So you could make the case that shelving his 4SFB altogether might make him a bit more effective without needing to add velocity.

His SL, which he threw 22% of the time, was his best pitch (BAA= .218). If he throws that a bit more, once again without needing to improve velocity, is he more effective?

His CH was not an effective pitch for him, (BAA=.316), yet he threw it 20% of the time. Yet his CV was very effective (.255) and he only threw it 11% of the time. Is this another situation where more CV and less CH makes him more effective?

This seems like a pitcher who would benefit from an analytical approach to his pitch selection. I think he is likely to gain a small amount of velocity in 2023 but doubt he gets back to being the flamethrower he once was. But if he can utilize the pitches he is most effective with more often he might be a very valuable addition to the rotation. Chris Holt and colleagues are pretty good at getting the best out of their guys. Thor might be a bounce back kind of guy. 

Whole lot of ifs for a guy who had major surgery and is on the wrong side of 30.

They should be aiming to do better. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Whole lot of ifs for a guy who had major surgery and is on the wrong side of 30.

They should be aiming to do better. 

Oh, I agree. So you think they should pay whatever it takes to get Rodon (age= 30 in 8 days) or Verlander (age 40)? 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Whole lot of ifs for a guy who had major surgery and is on the wrong side of 30.

They should be aiming to do better. 

He is 30.  Using his age against is pretty far fetched.   Without the “ifs” he was 2.2 fwar last year.   Your boy, Chris Bassitt was 2.7 fwar and turns 34 before next season which makes your argument against Syndergaard look pretty silly.

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

He threw his 2S/sinker far more than his 4SFB in 2022, (31% vs 15%). The reason is rather obvious as his BAA for the 4S was .316 and for the 2S was .235. So you could make the case that shelving his 4SFB altogether might make him a bit more effective without needing to add velocity.

I agree he's remade himself as more of a GB guy, not typically the Glasnow-Snell-Bautista-Bradish high spin high, breaking stuff low blueprint.   With sticky stuff it is just that simple - East West control, 3-pitch mastery, meh.

Right handed groundball pitchers probably benefit least from Walltimore if you quarter pitchers for handedness and contact type tendency - some of why I'm far more interested in Heaney-Manaea (maybe even Smyly or Minor) as the B guy.

Also this pitcher type especially needs good 2B defense where the two leading options today are Urias and Westburg, neither of whom perhaps is that rangy.

But from here any 2-win pitcher is at least a 2-win improvement as I don't expect more than replacement level performance from Watkins, Zimmermann, DL Hall trying to go 90 pitches, etc.

[AnythingO's]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lopez and Rogers have 3-4 WAR upside. They aren’t going to get anyone better than that.

Agreed, If Mullins gets Lopez, what does Rogers take? He regressed significantly in K/BB and WHIP last year, threw fewer innings, and appears to have been on IL at the end of the season. Maybe a buy low guy. They don't seem to have much at 3B, does Urias work for Rogers? Would they give up 2 SPs for position guys, maybe have to add a lottery arm?

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He is 30.  Using his age against is pretty far fetched.   Without the “ifs” he was 2.2 fwar last year.   Your boy, Chris Bassitt was 2.7 fwar and turns 34 before next season which makes your argument against Syndergaard look pretty silly.

Chris Bassitt is hardly my boy.  Thats just dumb to say.