Any interest in Josh Bell?

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Yeah, but the 81 walks and .362 OBP are pretty darn good.   I don't dislike the idea.  I just would use him to replace Mountcastle.

Yes. Overall, much rather have Bell's 3 WAR 2022 than Mountcastle's 1.3. 

[Jim'sKid26]

I'm fascinate by the desire to get rid of a 26 year old, former first round draft pick who is only 1 year removed from hitting 33 HRs (pre-Walltimore!). Bell's peripherals, as Tony pointed out, are declining. I think there is a rather significant possibility that RM out-performs Josh Bell over the next 2-3 years. And he's not even Arb eligible until 2024. 

I'm not saying you don't move him in the right trade scenario for a quality SP, but there is a risk he becomes a much better player than Bell.

[wildcard]

Elias cares about defense.  Bell is a poor defensive 1B.  His career UZR at 1B is -24.   Mountcastle is an average defensive 1B with 2.6 UZR.   I don't see Elias replacing Mountcastle at 1B with Bell.

Bell is a DH if he is signed with O's.  They may tolerate him at 1B as a backup but not much more.

If you believe that Adley will learn to hit lefties then its possible he plays 160 games.  120 as catcher and 40 as DH.   He is probably the teams best hitter.   He had a 861 OPS in the 2nd half after he learned the league.   40 games at DH is probably 160 at bats.

That leaves about 440 at bats at DH.

Stowers has more range  than  Santander but is less proven offensively.   One or both will see some time at DH.

Urias and Westburg are going to fight it out  for 2B.   Both might also DH.

And Ortiz who may be better than either on at 2B is a few short months away from the makes it to the majors if he shows anything close to what he did in the 2nd half.

Norby looks like a hitter and could be in the majors in the 2nd half.  His best positions may be DH and left field on the road.  He is probably not fast enough to play left  well in Camden.

And Cowser may be ready sometime in 2023.  He probably can play left in Camden as well as right.  

If Elias signs a FA starter and does not have to trade his prospects then there seems to be little use to give Bell as 2, 3 or 4 year contract unless you think Stowers, Westburg, Norby and Cowser are not going to develop into good major league hitters.

A one year deal for a DH may be preferable to a multi year deal.  Brantley?

Edited December 5, 2022 by wildcard

[NCRaven]

I don't believe that any everyday catcher in today's game is going to play in a combined C/DH position for 160 days.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm fascinate by the desire to get rid of a 26 year old, former first round draft pick who is only 1 year removed from hitting 33 HRs (pre-Walltimore!). Bell's peripherals, as Tony pointed out, are declining. I think there is a rather significant possibility that RM out-performs Josh Bell over the next 2-3 years. And he's not even Arb eligible until 2024. 

I'm not saying you don't move him in the right trade scenario for a quality SP, but there is a risk he becomes a much better player than Bell.

At one time, I think I was looking to move Mountcastle.   I do think there's a chance he could take off, although I think it's unlikely, he's ever going to be better than the current version of Josh Bell offensively.   I'm certainly okay with going another year with Mountcastle to see what he can do but I'm also not scared of moving him if it makes sense.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I like Stowers, but he's not factoring into any of my off-season decisions. He's not a big enough prospect and didn't prove enough to have that kind of pull yet. So I just kind of worry about him later, hopefully he makes an impact one way or another. 

Is Bell at 1B, Santander at DH, Stowers at RF (Mountcastle trade)

better than

Bell at DH, Santander at RF, Mounty at 1B (Stowers 4th OF)? 

 

Lol, you Stowers haters are going to be eating crow at some point. 

It's completely silly to say he didn't prove enough. What you should have said was the ridiculous decision to bench him in favor of Aguilar didn't allow him to prove enough at the major league level.

I guess an .863 OPS in AAA and .928 OPS in AA should just be ignored over the fact he didn't light the world on fire with sporadic at bats due to ridiculous lineup decisions by the organization last August and September? 

Yeah, definitely should just ignore him and treat him like an afterthought. 

 

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I'm fascinate by the desire to get rid of a 26 year old, former first round draft pick who is only 1 year removed from hitting 33 HRs (pre-Walltimore!). Bell's peripherals, as Tony pointed out, are declining. I think there is a rather significant possibility that RM out-performs Josh Bell over the next 2-3 years. And he's not even Arb eligible until 2024. 

I'm not saying you don't move him in the right trade scenario for a quality SP, but there is a risk he becomes a much better player than Bell.

I don't want to dump Mountcastle, but he clearly was affected by the wall last year and he may have more value in trade to a team with a shorter left field porch. 

The other issue I have with him is that he's very streaky and his bad streaks last way too long where he's an absolute zero at the plate because he doesn't walk much.

Again, would i trade Mountcastle for Bell straight up, no, I would not. If Mountcastle brought me value in a starting pitcher or good outfielder, then yes, I'd move him and bring on Bell to hold the fort down at 1B until Mayo is ready.

[Camden_yardbird]

If we have add Bell and Taillon I have some old pirates shirts I can amortize.  Stick a bird on it and good to go.

[NCRaven]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Again, would i trade Mountcastle for Bell straight up, no, I would not. If Mountcastle brought me value in a starting pitcher or good outfielder, then yes, I'd move him and bring on Bell to hold the fort down at 1B until Mayo is ready.

I'm a big Mountcastle booster, but this is where I'm at with anyone on this team not named Adley, Grayson or Gunnar.  Everyone one else, including Ryan, is tradeable in the right deal.

[RVAOsFan]

I think Josh Bell would be a good addition.  I think Mountcastle would really benefit from bringing in another big bat so that he could drop down a few spots in the order.  He plays pretty good defense and I think the clubhouse loves the guy.  The couple times he was interviewed during games this year you could see he was loose and having fun which is the way the whole team played this year, which makes me think he's looked up to.  I hope they keep him around a while.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol, you Stowers haters are going to be eating crow at some point. 

It's completely silly to say he didn't prove enough. What you should have said was the ridiculous decision to bench him in favor of Aguilar didn't allow him to prove enough at the major league level.

I guess an .863 OPS in AAA and .928 OPS in AA should just be ignored over the fact he didn't light the world on fire with sporadic at bats due to ridiculous lineup decisions by the organization last August and September? 

Yeah, definitely should just ignore him and treat him like an afterthought. 

 

I definitely don’t think Stowers should be ignored.  As I pointed out the other day, he got off to a slow start in his first 21 PA but had an .817 OPS in his final 77 PA.  So yes, it’s possible that he could be about as good a hitter as Bell, though obviously we don’t know that for sure.   

Elias has said he’s looking for 1-2 bats, so I’m suggesting one.  
 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Lol, you Stowers haters are going to be eating crow at some point. 

It's completely silly to say he didn't prove enough. What you should have said was the ridiculous decision to bench him in favor of Aguilar didn't allow him to prove enough at the major league level.

I guess an .863 OPS in AAA and .928 OPS in AA should just be ignored over the fact he didn't light the world on fire with sporadic at bats due to ridiculous lineup decisions by the organization last August and September? 

Yeah, definitely should just ignore him and treat him like an afterthought. 

 

Show me where I said we should ignore him. I like him quite a bit. But I'm not NOT signing a better player or making some other upgrade with him in mind like I might with Gunnar or Adley. Is that unreasonable? 

I really don't like being labeled some general hater, that's going too far.

Edited December 5, 2022 by interloper

[Just Regular]

Szymborski released Padres ZiPs today with Bell's 80th percentile at 3 wins, and 20th percentile at 0.5.     I guess you could say Josh Bell is to Trey Mancini as Kyle Gibson is to Jordan Lyles.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/

Article highlighted how big their third outfielder hole is currently - maybe an Austin Hays demand team if their payroll is already redlined?    I believe Maryland kid Jackson Merrill is the one really shiny thing left after the Soto deal, but he'd probably be more Mullins than Hays, aside from our infielder list already being crowded.

I thought this comment on various LF/DH types for them was pretty good, if Elias too is looking at this shelf.

I think they’re probably done with Wil Myers, Luke Voit, and Josh Bell at this point, no? So Justin Turner, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, and Michael Brantley should probably all be on their radar. Maybe Joey Gallo too (I kind of think it will be Gallo, just because Preller likes getting older Texas guys back). I’d leave Profar and Mancini unless they miss on their other targets–they just don’t hit enough to cover for the fact that they can’t play any defensive spot well. Belt, Pham, Robbie Grossman, and JD Martinez are probably done, but I think they’re probably about as reasonable a bet as Profar and Mancini.

[WI O’s Fan]

I have Josh Bell as the #1 fa for the O’s.   120 games at dh and 15-20 games at first.  That leaves 20 to 30 games for Rutschman to dh.  He would hit 4th and give ease to Santander and M C hitting a few spots down the order.      M,R,H,B,S,M,H/S,W,M as the starting lineup.

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, WI O’s Fan said:

I have Josh Bell as the #1 fa for the O’s.   120 games at dh and 15-20 games at first.  That leaves 20 to 30 games for Rutschman to dh.  He would hit 4th and give ease to Santander and M C hitting a few spots down the order.      M,R,H,B,S,M,H/S,W,M as the starting lineup.

I hope he is not the biggest free agent signing. I hope that is a starter but I do have a feeling Bell is an Oriole by the end of the winter meetings.