Orioles pursuing Wacha?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, we only have 1 year of the wall to go by.  I wrote an article for ESR earlier in the offseason and this is a snippet from it:

 

The park factor for righties is 99. For lefties it is 94 (if you aren’t familiar, 100 is average, over 100 favors hitting and under 100 favors pitching). xwOBA for righties was 102 and for lefties it was 94. OBP park factor for righties was 103. For lefties it was 97. In terms of comparing it to other parks, extra base hits were about the same for lefties and righties. So, the idea that the O’s need to focus on lefty bats because of the wall is factually not true. Now, lefties will hit more homers (they hit the same amount as righties but in far fewer plate appearances) but they new dimensions likely hurt lefties and their ability to use all fields for power.

Can you point me to the Baseball savant page where you got that information from?

[Yardball85]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When you are working off the dollar store budget, you have to learn to make half measures work I guess.

 

Right.  I am used to it as a fan, but it does not make it any less frustrating.  If you want to make the team better via free agency--which you should be doing as well as drafting smart, making trades, etc.--then actually make the team better, don't bring in warm bodies who aren't an upgrade.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

If you are going to sign Wacha (which will probably cost $10-12M), just fork over 5-7M more for Eovaldi, who has higher upside and is better.  I don't get this obsession with half measures.

Sorry, I know I am a broken record.

Who knows.  Elias may be in on Eovaldi as well.   He may have been in on Bassitt and Syndergraad but they went elsewhere.   Just because Elias wants them and even if he pays the most it does not mean the pitchers want to come to Baltimore.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

But on the positive side, you do limit risk with these one year contracts. I only want longer deals with guys with guys that warrant those years.

It appears Elias sees the value of going with these guys on one-year contracts and expects the next crop to be there the next year.

Whether that works or not will be shown ultimately in the win-loss record at the end of the year.

Personally, I would not have an issue with these guys to fill out the rotation IF we had a sure #1 and #2. Right now, we have a one potential guy in Grayson Rodriguez to one of those guys. Bradish pitched like one over the last couple of months, but I'm still in the wait and see with him over a whole season.

 

The bottom of the roster is not what needs to be addressed. 
 

 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea it’s dumb. The whole, we don’t want to get into a longer term deal is stupid.

Look at it another way.

They paid 21M for Lyles and Gibson. Next year, you may look to sign another guy like that.

So, a 3/31-35 type deal.

You are in a long term deal, it’s just with different players. It’s the same guy, just a different name on the back of the jersey.

Going on year at a time with 3 different pitchers is not the same risk as going 3 years with one pitcher and you know it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Can you point me to the Baseball savant page where you got that information from?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=L&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no
 

Just have to make sure you are only looking at 2022 and not doing 3 year averages. 
 

And from there, you can go through the splits of lefties and righties, etc…

[Yardball85]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who knows.  Elias may be in on Eovaldi as well.   He may have been in on Bassitt and Syndergraad but they went elsewhere.   Just because Elias wants them and even if he pays the most it does not mean the pitchers want to come to Baltimore.

These are fair points WC, and if Elias is pursuing them and making legitimate offers and they choose to go elsewhere, fine. But I would think the Orioles are more attractive for starting pitchers now, for all the reasons Gibson noted (up and coming team, Adley, Walltimore). 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Going on year at a time with 3 different pitchers is not the same risk as going 3 years with one pitcher and you know it.

No but going with mediocre pitchers as opposed to getting a true upgrade isnt the same either but I assume you are smart enough to know that. 
 

And you are spending the money either way. (Yes it will cost more but you are still spending a significant chunk of it)

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No but going with mediocre pitchers as opposed to getting a true upgrade isnt the same either but I assume you are smart enough to know that. 
 

And you are spending the money either way. (Yes it will cost more but you are still spending a significant chunk of it)

Hey, I'd rathe spend 30M a year on Rodon (not too many do) than 20M-25M on two #4 types.   BUT, there's very little risk on the one year contracts and it does create more depth.    If by next season, by some miracle, we have Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish, Hall, and Wells (Povich and/or McDermott knocking on the door), in the rotation, maybe you don't need these one-year deals.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But on the positive side, you do limit risk with these one year contracts. I only want longer deals with guys with guys that warrant those years.

It appears Elias sees the value of going with these guys on one-year contracts and expects the next crop to be there the next year.

Whether that works or not will be shown ultimately in the win-loss record at the end of the year.

Personally, I would not have an issue with these guys to fill out the rotation IF we had a sure #1 and #2. Right now, we have a one potential guy in Grayson Rodriguez to one of those guys. Bradish pitched like one over the last couple of months, but I'm still in the wait and see with him over a whole season.

 

Elias appears to be like you.  He is in wait and see mode as well.  Who pans out.  Kremer, Grayson, Bradish, Hall??? Heck after that first half Wells could end up being good in the rotation at some point in the future.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias appears to be like you.  He is in wait and see mode as well.  Who pans out.  Kremer, Grayson, Bradish, Hall??? Heck after that first half Wells could end up being good in the rotation at some point in the future.

I don't think they should be using a year of Adley and Gunnar to see who pans out.  That is what they should have been doing in the years leading up to this.

[Sports Guy]

Kluber had far superior statcast numbers and an insanely low walk rate.  He’s a much better add.

[Yardball85]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they should be using a year of Adley and Gunnar to see who pans out.  That is what they should have been doing in the years leading up to this.

This. Exactly this. 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The bottom of the roster is not what needs to be addressed. 
 

 

You will get no arguments from me. 

This offseason has been a major disappointment up to this point and if they come out of this offseason wit Gibson and another Wacha-like starter, that would be very disappointing and would show ownership has no intention of providing a budget for improving a club on the cusp.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kluber had far superior statcast numbers and an insanely low walk rate.  He’s a much better add.

Kluber scares me because he's a pitchability junk baller now, and those can blow up at any point at his age.