Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

2018 rWAR 2.7

2019 2.5

2020 0.8 projected out in 162 about 2.3

2021 4.1

2022 0.9

fWAR is more accurate to use but that still shows him to be a good player from 2018-2021. That doesn’t mean he will be going forward though.  Between his own disturbing trends and how MIer historically tend to decline rapidly in their early 30s, it doesn’t bode well for a real bounce back.

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

fWAR is more accurate to use but that still shows him to be a good player from 2018-2021. That doesn’t mean he will be going forward though.  Between his own disturbing trends and how MIer historically tend to decline rapidly in their early 30s, it doesn’t bode well for a real bounce back.

If he plays solid defense they will give him a longer leash but not forever. If he can be the .275/340 guy that can help. I know his BABIP was .268 last year. About 30 points lower than normal. As a team last year the team had an OBP of .302. 
 

I kept pointing out at the end of last year how poorly they hit off of LHP. Elias is either not concerned or has a long play here in mind. None of the RH bats are split heavy hitters. Mullins can bounce back but can’t assume for sure. Common sense says Gunnar no matter how good he is will be better off RHP. Adley should bounce back. Santander was great last year. Will he be that good again?  
 

Westburg hit LHP great in 21,  not last year. 
 

We will have to see if the trend of issues off LHP carries over to this year or not. If/when Cowser is up who goes? Not just record wise but roster wise will be fun to see it play out. I’m sure Elias has his plan. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I've been around for a long time, and this is definitely a "pot, meet kettle" type of argument.

Your thoughts have been noted publicly.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

2018 rWAR 2.7

2019 2.5

2020 0.8 projected out in 162 about 2.3

2021 4.1

2022 0.9

0.9 last year and 2021 was propped up by a good first half and defense. He's 31 and slowwed down significantly last year. But either way, we've made our points in this thread. 

 

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

0.9 last year and 2021 was propped up by a good first half and defense. He's 31 and slowwed down significantly last year. But either way, we've made our points in this thread. 

 

I think this would have been a good signing for about 3M.    I don't think it hurts to have a left-handed bat in the mix at 2B and corner OF.  For me, it's the amount of money that's the issue.

[Spy Fox]

I’m not sure if this has been mentioned in the 55 pages, but I’ll be curious to see what Jurickson Profar gets. The Fangraphs crowdsource was 3/30.
 

If that turns into something like 2/20 or 2/24, seems to me like another case where the multi-year-contract allergy is leading us to worse players at worse values when better ones for the same roles are available if we just bite the bullet on year 2. Similar to choosing Gibson over the cavalcade of higher upside 2/25ish deals given to Manaea/Stripling/Quintana/Heaney. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I think this would have been a good signing for about 3M.    I don't think it hurts to have a left-handed bat in the mix at 2B and corner OF.  For me, it's the amount of money that's the issue.

If he was signed to low cost contract as a backup, I'd have way less problems with the signing. But we've seen Elias play Odor an entire season when every metric said he was below replacement level. He very well may do the same again with Frazier as he will get a very long leash with an $8 million contract.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I’m not sure if this has been mentioned in the 55 pages, but I’ll be curious to see what Jurickson Profar gets. The Fangraphs crowdsource was 3/30.
 

If that turns into something like 2/20 or 2/24, seems to me like another case where the multi-year-contract allergy is leading us to worse players at worse values when better ones for the same roles are available if we just bite the bullet on year 2. Similar to choosing Gibson over the cavalcade of higher upside 2/25ish deals given to Manaea/Stripling/Quintana/Heaney. 

Elias has clearly shown he has a major aversion to risk. These one year signings show he thinks this is a similar year to last year where he thinks his team will be about .500 and hope it over achieves.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If he plays solid defense they will give him a longer leash but not forever. If he can be the .275/340 guy that can help. I know his BABIP was .268 last year. About 30 points lower than normal. As a team last year the team had an OBP of .302. 
 

I kept pointing out at the end of last year how poorly they hit off of LHP. Elias is either not concerned or has a long play here in mind. None of the RH bats are split heavy hitters. Mullins can bounce back but can’t assume for sure. Common sense says Gunnar no matter how good he is will be better off RHP. Adley should bounce back. Santander was great last year. Will he be that good again?  
 

Westburg hit LHP great in 21,  not last year. 
 

We will have to see if the trend of issues off LHP carries over to this year or not. If/when Cowser is up who goes? Not just record wise but roster wise will be fun to see it play out. I’m sure Elias has his plan. 

You mean like that short leash they had with Odor?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Where Szymborski and you are wrong is that Frazier is not a league average player and hasn't been outside of one half of baseball for three years. At 31 years old, and with slowing speed, it's doubtful he will "bounce back". 

We can all hope he bounces back, because honestly, hope is is all we really have with Frazier after looking at all the data. Personally, I wouldn't sign a guy when hope is our best indicator of future success.

I’m not going on hope.  Szymborski’s ZiPS projections take his career numbers season by season and the underlying data and patterns into account.  Those projections are about as objective as can be.   They project that at least a mild bounce back is more probable than not.   The other projections I’ve seen agree.  

None of that means it will happen, but I’m not relying on hope.   

And just so it’s clear, I’m not a big fan of this transaction, unless it’s part of a bigger plan.   I just don’t think it’s right to assume Frazier is done as a productive player.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not going on hope.  Szymborski’s ZiPS projections take his career numbers season by season and the underlying data and patterns into account.  Those projections are about as objective as can be.   They project that at least a mild bounce back is more probable than not.   The other projections I’ve seen agree.  

None of that means it will happen, but I’m not relying on hope.   

And just so it’s clear, I’m not a big fan of this transaction, unless it’s part of a bigger plan.   I just don’t think it’s right to assume Frazier is done as a productive player.

 

I wouldn’t rule out that he could be a decent player in 2023 but I don’t think there is a lot to go on except just the idea that guys can have bounce back seasons and we have seen guys who look almost done bounce back to have good years.

But I don’t see what you would be hanging your hat on for you to have that belief.

[RZNJ]

I'm all for saying it doesn't look good for Frazier going forward.   I see the warning signs in the foot speed decrease from 2021 to 2022.   However, the detractors point to his first half in 2021 and totally discount it because of a high BABIP and then further discount the whole because he only had a good first half.    His overall numbers in Pittsburgh in 2021 were good.   He had good doubles numbers and walked almost as much as he struck out.     Okay, he gets traded and has a bad second half.   Natural regression?   Trying to impess the new team?    I don't know BUT he still had a good year overall.

2022 is another story.   He lost foot speed and he lost all ability to hit the ball with any authority, not that he had much to begin with.   He had a pretty solid career up until 2021 but this signing does bring back feelings of Garret Atkins.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean like that short leash they had with Odor?

And that was on a veteran minimum salary for Odor. $8M isn't really a big deal in MLB today, but it is for a low spending team like the Orioles. Frazier is going to be penciled into the lineup everyday even if he's mediocre. 

I still contend Elias is working on a trade(s) and there are going to be roster spots opening up to create playing time for Frazier. Depth wise even moving a player or two doesn't really justify the Frazier signing, but I'm willing to let this play out. 

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean like that short leash they had with Odor?

For the 187th time what does Odor have to do with now ? The answer is nothing. 
He played Odor over Vavra. That’s it. Big deal. 

If we use that logic Elias will never play a young player and if the club is a couple of games out he will deal players. Since that is what he did in 22 he will always do that. 
 

The angst over this floors me. It really does. Convicting someone of a crime you think they will commit based off of an assumption. The assumption is based off of “loose at best” evidence at a different time and place. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'm all for saying it doesn't look good for Frazier going forward.   I see the warning signs in the foot speed decrease from 2021 to 2022.   However, the detractors point to his first half in 2021 and totally discount it because of a high BABIP and then further discount the whole because he only had a good first half.    His overall numbers in Pittsburgh in 2021 were good.   He had good doubles numbers and walked almost as much as he struck out.     Okay, he gets traded and has a bad second half.   Natural regression?   Trying to impess the new team?    I don't know BUT he still had a good year overall.

2022 is another story.   He lost foot speed and he lost all ability to hit the ball with any authority, not that he had much to begin with.   He had a pretty solid career up until 2021 but this signing does bring back feelings of Garret Atkins.

Not counting the 8 at bats in October.  July and August were awful.

The other 4 months, he had a 785 OPS or better.  I think it’s fair to say his 2021 was an overall good season, even if it was propped up more because of a BABiP that isn’t and wasn’t sustainable.