Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[Sports Guy]

Cabrera is the guy to target.

[MarCakes21]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cabrera is the guy to target.

Why not both?  Could you get ECab and Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo/Westburg?  And do you do it?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Why not both?  Could you get ECab and Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo/Westburg?  And do you do it?

No I don’t do it and I don’t think Miami does either.

[HakunaSakata]

26 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Why not both?  Could you get ECab and Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo/Westburg?  And do you do it?

I don't get the sense that the Marlins would be willing to trade two SPs. Even if they were that package would be a bit light based on each player's median trade value. A trade based around Luzardo and Cowser seems pretty doable though. 

Cabrera (14.8)
Luzardo (28)
Cowser (25)
Westburg (15.8)
Mayo (12.2)

I've posted this link before, but this is a fun website to play around with in terms of trade possibilities. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[HakunaSakata]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No I don’t do it and I don’t think Miami does either.

Cowser (25 MTV) and Mateo (3.2 MTV) for Luzardo (28 MTV) would be pretty fair IMO. And I imagine the Marlins would see Mateo as an upgrade over Wendle at SS.  I might try to squeeze a bit more out of them, but at the end of the day I think I'd make that trade. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I don't get the sense that the Marlins would be willing to trade two SPs. Even if they were that package would be a bit light based on each player's median trade value. A trade based around Luzardo and Cowser seems pretty doable though. 

Cabrera (14.8)
Luzardo (28)
Cowser (25)
Westburg (15.8)
Mayo (12.2)

I've posted this link before, but this is a fun website to play around with in terms of trade possibilities. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Please stop using that website as if it matters. It’s so horrible.

If the Marlins wanted to trade both starters and they wanted prospects, they take a deal that basically gives them 3 top 100 prospects. 
 

But they don’t want prospects and we don’t know if they want to trade multiple guys.  If Meyer was healthy, I think they would trade 2. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Please stop using that website as if it matters. It’s so horrible.

If the Marlins wanted to trade both starters and they wanted prospects, they take a deal that basically gives them 3 top 100 prospects. 
 

But they don’t want prospects and we don’t know if they want to trade multiple guys.  If Meyer was healthy, I think they would trade 2. 

Do you have a better resource for trade value? And Meyer's isn't healthy (torn UCL) so I can say with reasonable confidence that the Marlins would not be willing to trade two of their MLB starting pitchers right now. It was also reported that the Marlins wanted MLB ready players not prospects. That's why I suggested Cowser / Mateo for Luzardo / a lower end minor league player. 

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Do you have a better resource for trade value? And Meyer's isn't healthy (torn UCL) so I can say with reasonable confidence that the Marlins would not be willing to trade two of their MLB starting pitchers right now. It was also reported that the Marlins wanted MLB ready players not prospects. That's why I suggested Cowser / Mateo for Luzardo / a lower end minor league player. 

 

There is no site for proper trade value. 

[MarCakes21]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I don't get the sense that the Marlins would be willing to trade two SPs. Even if they were that package would be a bit light based on each player's median trade value. A trade based around Luzardo and Cowser seems pretty doable though. 

Cabrera (14.8)
Luzardo (28)
Cowser (25)
Westburg (15.8)
Mayo (12.2)

I've posted this link before, but this is a fun website to play around with in terms of trade possibilities. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

I posted that same info earlier.  I also believe that you need to put more stock in the ML WAR projections as they've "proven it", whereas the minors guys have so much more variability.  Hence why Adley's increased.

I actually think that trade above is decently fair.  2 top 100 guys, and a fringe guy for 2 ML, mid rotation guys.  Now I don't know if either team pulls the trigger, or we'd have to add some more mid-level guys as well, or a Wells option who provides minimal value but support.

[sportsfan8703]

I have a hard time giving up Westburg in a deal. Age 23 last year and hit 27 HR and 39 doubles. While he may not be Mateo, Gunnar, Urias, or Ortiz defensively, he’s still be categorized as steady with the glove. I also don’t think the Marlins want prospects anyway. 
 

As far as MLB players go… Santander is too valuable to us because we don’t have a replacement that can do what he does. So that leaves Mateo, Urias, Hays, and maybe Mountcastle as fits. Maybe they could stick Mateo in CF. 
 

It seems like Eric Lauer or Wacha are better fits. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no site for proper trade value. 

I think the logic of that site is decent enough.  But in the real world, trades get made based on what teams need and where they are in their competitive cycle, not based on some abstract expectation of future WAR and salaries.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the logic of that site is decent enough.  But in the real world, trades get made based on what teams need and where they are in their competitive cycle, not based on some abstract expectation of future WAR and salaries.

Yea it’s not real. There is so much more that goes into it.

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the logic of that site is decent enough.  But in the real world, trades get made based on what teams need and where they are in their competitive cycle, not based on some abstract expectation of future WAR and salaries.

That's my thinking as well. It's good enough to at least give you a sense of whether or not you're in the ballpark with a trade idea and seems to adequately take into account things like salary, age, years of team control remaining, etc. 

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So that leaves Mateo, Urias, Hays, and maybe Mountcastle as fits. Maybe they could stick Mateo in CF. 

You have to get teams to want one of those players. They all have pretty big questions surrounding them heading into this season. However, the Marlins are making a difficult ask. How often are teams going to be looking to ship out good ML position players who are either pre-Arb or not making a ton for non-ace level pitchers? I personally think they should be looking at Cowser and should take any deal they could get the O's to accept involving him. They need good OFs who can play center. 

[HakunaSakata]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I have a hard time giving up Westburg in a deal. Age 23 last year and hit 27 HR and 39 doubles. While he may not be Mateo, Gunnar, Urias, or Ortiz defensively, he’s still be categorized as steady with the glove. I also don’t think the Marlins want prospects anyway. 
 

As far as MLB players go… Santander is too valuable to us because we don’t have a replacement that can do what he does. So that leaves Mateo, Urias, Hays, and maybe Mountcastle as fits. Maybe they could stick Mateo in CF. 
 

It seems like Eric Lauer or Wacha are better fits. 

I'd prefer to give up Cowser (over Westburg) because I'm pretty bullish on Kjerstad. Cowser could arguably be viewed as a prospect that a team like the Marlins would view as a MLB ready player.  I can also understand your hesitancy to give up a young prospect, but the difference in signing Wacha or trading for Lauer is that with a Marlin's trade we'd be getting a young arm with a high ceiling to plug into our starting rotation for years (i.e., a way to improve without lessening our young talent).