Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[Sports Guy]

Btw, let me be clear. When I say put a better package together than Arraez, I’m not necessarily talking about for Lopez persay. 

Just in general putting a package together that gives them one of their pitchers, preferably Cabrera.

 

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

SHOULD they offer a package more valuable than Arraez?   We’re talking about a guy who’s been worth 10.4 rWAR in his career (4.4 last year) and is under control for 3 years, compared to Lopez who’s been worth 8.5 rWAR (3.0 last year) and is under control for two years. (By fWAR, Lopez has the career edge while Arraez has the 2022 edge.)

Arraez is a really good get for them and we’d have to offer Mullins to beat that offer. 
 

Amaya was also a pretty good return for Rojas. 
The Red Sox were rumored to want Joey Wendle and a SP, and the Marlins wanted Casas.  These are some big time position players the Marlins are wanting back. Unfortunately, Mateo and Urias don’t have that value yet. But, next offseason… they could be both GG defenders with improved offense. That’s when we can flip them for SP and roll with the young guys. At least that is best case scenario. 

[HakunaSakata]

Luis Arraez is an interesting player. He's basically batting average, OBP and absolutely nothing else. No HRs, no RBIs, no SBs, and he even has pretty modest runs scored for someone who gets on base as much as he does. I think he also probably profiles more as as DH on a good team and I can't recall there ever being a good DH in recent years who didn't accumulate some level of counting stats. I'm also having a hard time coming up with a comp for him. Maybe a poor man's Brandon Nimmo? I'm not trying to argue that he doesn't have value, I just don't think it's quite what we're making it out to be. I also think there's a reason the Twins have been shopping him hard this offseason. I think they probably believe they're selling him at peak value (i.e., coming off the bating title win). 

All that said, if some iteration of this trade happens we should think about how the possible fallout could benefit the Orioles. If the Twins trade for Lopez they'll have too many pitchers and my gut tells me they'd be willing to listen to offers for Mahle and he shouldn't cost much since he's only under team control for another year. If Mahle was a FA I would have put him in that Manaea / Taillon tier and I think he is significantly better than any of the other remaining FA pitchers. Mahle wasn't great last season, but his xERA was 3.49. I think if he played half his games at OPACY a sub 4.00 ERA with solid strikeout numbers would be a very realistic expectation. 

[HakunaSakata]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Arraez is a really good get for them and we’d have to offer Mullins to beat that offer. 
 

Amaya was also a pretty good return for Rojas. 
The Red Sox were rumored to want Joey Wendle and a SP, and the Marlins wanted Casas.  These are some big time position players the Marlins are wanting back. Unfortunately, Mateo and Urias don’t have that value yet. But, next offseason… they could be both GG defenders with improved offense. That’s when we can flip them for SP and roll with the young guys. At least that is best case scenario. 

If we're willing to trade players like Westberg, Cowser, etc. we can compete with any of those offers. We have to offer quality to get quality and we have to stop viewing mediocre players like Mateo and Urias through orange colored glasses and expecting them to land us any significant pieces. 

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Miami has been after several different guys on different teams and different positions, according to reports.

Lopez is also not the only guy they are willing to trade.

There is zero reason for a team like the Os, who matches up extremely well with Miami, to not come through on some deal with them.

The Os aren’t interested in drafting pitching early. I agree with them there. They aren’t interested in paying what’s needed for pitching. I agree in some ways with that. 
 

So, if you won’t buy it and you won’t draft it, you have to get pitching through trades. It makes it more vital and necessary for the Orioles to perhaps even overpay slightly in a trade since that’s the best way they will acquire higher end pitching.

 

The Orioles are choosing option 4 - options from the scrap heap and pray it works.  (to other posters, no, Gibson is not from the scrap heap, but it's sad that Elias said he was going to get a 1-3 pitcher this offseason and only wound up with Gibson. 

[Yardball85]

11 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Not sure I'd want to give up a player/prospect combo of Arraez' value for two years of Lopez with where the Orioles currently sit. I don't think it would move the needle enough for them if they sent Santander or Mullins, and I'd rather not see them lose pieces like Cowser/Westburg/etc for short term deals.

If they could move players like Hays/Mateo/Urias or pick up longer-term pieces like Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera, that'd be a different story.

Arraez put up 4.4 WAR, while Mateo and Urias put up 3.8 and 3.6, respectively.  If the Orioles add someone like Tate to a Urias or Mateo, which they could, then that arguably beats the Twins offer (to the extent the Marlins would want to add a reliever in the deal).

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is zero reason for a team like the Os, who matches up extremely well with Miami, to not come through on some deal with them.

Do they matched up well though? Miami wants good ML hitters who are obviously cheap. If I'm Miami I'm taking Arraez and his .375 OBP over Santander, Hays, Mountcastle etc.  I could see Mullins being an interest for them but he's been a 4-6 WAR player over the past two years at a premium position. I wouldn't be confident any pitcher they have besides Sandy would be that valuable. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LTO's said:

Do they matched up well though? Miami wants good ML hitters who are obviously cheap. If I'm Miami I'm taking Arraez and his .375 OBP over Santander, Hays, Mountcastle etc.  I could see Mullins being an interest for them but he's been a 4-6 WAR player over the past two years at a premium position. I wouldn't be confident any pitcher they have besides Sandy would be that valuable. 

Yes, they match up that well. Now, it’s possible that they would value Arraez over anyone. We don’t know but that doesn’t mean they don’t match up well.

It’s obvious they match up well. We can have at least 5 guys that are solid ML players that are at positions they need and almost all of those guys have a lot of service time and don’t cost much money.

 

[LTO's]

Roch had an actually interesting blog this morning on the state of the roster and what he's heard the Orioles are still looking for. In that blog, contained this little blurb. I think everyone assumed they've been in contact based on the need for a SP and their previous trades with the Marlins, but this is the first time I've seen a reporter confirm it. 

 

The Marlins are loaded with starters in the majors and minors, and the Orioles have been in contact with them. There’s motivation to stay in touch. Miami's player asking price might not be a match, though trading Miguel Rojas could help.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, they match up that well. Now, it’s possible that they would value Arraez over anyone. We don’t know but that doesn’t mean they don’t match up well.

It’s obvious they match up well. We can have at least 5 guys that are solid ML players that are at positions they need and almost all of those guys have a lot of service time and don’t cost much money.

 

If it's so obvious then who are the 5? Their ask seems to be for established ML above average bats. If we could get them to bit on Urias or Mateo that would be great. But the Orioles were bottom half of the league in runs scored last year and trading someone like Santander or Mountcastle would make improving on that even tougher. The wildcard is obviously if they'd be willing take an almost MLB ready guy like Westburg or Cowser but every report I've seen says they are not interested in prospects. 

[orioles119]

Urias/2 specs for Rojas and one of their SP?

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, they match up that well. Now, it’s possible that they would value Arraez over anyone. We don’t know but that doesn’t mean they don’t match up well.

It’s obvious they match up well. We can have at least 5 guys that are solid ML players that are at positions they need and almost all of those guys have a lot of service time and don’t cost much money.

 

They only match up well if the Marlins view some of our high level prospects as MLB ready. If that's not what the Marlins are looking for then Mullins is probably the only player they'd be interested in. I don't think the Orioles are actively shopping Mountcastle (they're already too thin at 1B) and I really don't think Santander has much value or appeal to other teams. 

All that said, the Marlins aren't really a team that's only one or team players away from contention so I'd say trading Lopez (if that's who they want to move) for a high level prospect and/or combination of high level prospect would be a much better move for them to make then even trading for a 25 year old DH who offers nothing more than batting average and OBP. 

[Ripken]

We can't keep them all, Mike.  Gonna have to move some prospects eventually...

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

If it's so obvious then who are the 5? Their ask seems to be for established ML above average bats. If we could get them to bit on Urias or Mateo that would be great. But the Orioles were bottom half of the league in runs scored last year and trading someone like Santander or Mountcastle would make improving on that even tougher. The wildcard is obviously if they'd be willing take an almost MLB ready guy like Westburg or Cowser but every report I've seen says they are not interested in prospects. 

Santander, Mullins, Mateo, Urias and Mountcastle.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Luis Arraez is an interesting player. He's basically batting average, OBP and absolutely nothing else. No HRs, no RBIs, no SBs, and he even has pretty modest runs scored for someone who gets on base as much as he does. I think he also probably profiles more as as DH on a good team and I can't recall there ever being a good DH in recent years who didn't accumulate some level of counting stats. I'm also having a hard time coming up with a comp for him. Maybe a poor man's Brandon Nimmo? I'm not trying to argue that he doesn't have value, I just don't think it's quite what we're making it out to be. I also think there's a reason the Twins have been shopping him hard this offseason. I think they probably believe they're selling him at peak value (i.e., coming off the bating title win). 

All that said, if some iteration of this trade happens we should think about how the possible fallout could benefit the Orioles. If the Twins trade for Lopez they'll have too many pitchers and my gut tells me they'd be willing to listen to offers for Mahle and he shouldn't cost much since he's only under team control for another year. If Mahle was a FA I would have put him in that Manaea / Taillon tier and I think he is significantly better than any of the other remaining FA pitchers. Mahle wasn't great last season, but his xERA was 3.49. I think if he played half his games at OPACY a sub 4.00 ERA with solid strikeout numbers would be a very realistic expectation. 

Re Arraez - I think you're undervaluing not getting out as a team value-add.  It doesn't show up quite as well on the fantasy pages, but IRL not getting out means more PAs for everyone on the team.  This comp is going to sound extravagant (and it is for many reasons), but a scaled down version of Tony Gwynn.  Similar BB%, Babip, OBP.