Is the Orioles evaluation process for bounce back players "sophisticated"?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Say 2019 numbers?

I doubt the O’s are counting on that.  It would be great if that happened but not that likely.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Thank you for publicly admitting that. Not everyone will admit their opinion is "non stat" based and more on your hope and his past performance from over three years ago.

I only hope this "analysis" is not what Elias/Sig uses for their sophisticated evaluation system. 

 

Me too lol

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Thank you for publicly admitting that. Not everyone will admit their opinion is "non stat" based and more on your hope and his past performance from over three years ago.

I only hope this "analysis" is not what Elias/Sig uses for their sophisticated evaluation system. 

 

I will gladly take his 2021 season.  Other  Frazier posters have also made the same comment that he was no good for the last 3 years.  What am I missing here? 

[oriolediehard]

Is it possible that Elias prefers 1 year contracts to avoid long term contract commitments?  Is it his plan to continue to develop a strong farm system and sign or trade for 1 year bridge gap players?  My biggest hope is we sign our main players ie Rutschman, Henderson and so forth long term.

[Since1984]

The Orioles success in finding good value for 2022’s playoff run completely relates to the rebuild phase, and the teams position on the waiver wire (Rule V, Lopez, Urias, Mateo, Wells, Voth, Etc.). About 15 WAR just on waiver pick ups this past year.

I watched the first Friday MASN show, new, and got the jist of Sig’s perspective:

The Orioles exceeded expectations. (Let’s add to that thread, much more depth potential to discuss during 2023).

The Orioles do not have any secret magic sauce, but they are currently probing for it (O’s Magic). I like the Giant’s, as a perfect example! How many title’s???

Every successful team has a rebound approach on a SP and/or MOB, each year (e.g. Nelson Cruz, or Gausman and Rodon for SF) . The O’s are now pushing that potential envelope and seeing what sticks. I like this team moving forward, and for the first time in years.

 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

Is it possible that Elias prefers 1 year contracts to avoid long term contract commitments?  Is it his plan to continue to develop a strong farm system and sign or trade for 1 year bridge gap players?  My biggest hope is we sign our main players ie Rutschman, Henderson and so forth long term.

It appears that is his plan right now. Personally I think he got a pretty low budget from John Angelos and he's trying to piece a roster together with that budget. Now, whether he's picking the right pieces is what we've been debating.

[tntoriole]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get it but I have a hard time with the idea of a middle infielder over 30 having a big bounce back season.

JJ Hardy 2015 -.564 OPS. 2016 .716 OPS … age 32 and 33 .. 

Plenty of examples.  Frazier may not play well but it is not age related 

[tntoriole]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It appears that is his plan right now. Personally I think he got a pretty low budget from John Angelos and he's trying to piece a roster together with that budget. Now, whether he's picking the right pieces is what we've been debating.

You would think with all the tax dollars that support the Orioles that they may have to occasionally have some public accountability 

[E-D-D-I-E]

18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Last year the Orioles were in "win now" mode from about mid-August on. Elias acquired Phillips in August, brought up Vavra and Stowers, then signed Aguilar for September to hit against lefties when he hadn't hit all year and he had a prospect who mashed them in the minors despite batting left-handed. 

So the only thing we have to go by when the Orioles are contention was to sit Vavra and Stowers and play Odor and Aguilar. That was their evaluations during that time. 

During August-October, the Orioles went:
18-9 (.667) when Vavra started
12-11 (.521) when Stowers started
19-21 (.475) when Odor starter
5-7 (.417) when Aguilar started.

Now, obviously wins and losses when a player starts is not the be all end all to value, but it does highlight the team players better with Vavra and Stowers in the lineup then with Orioles veteran choices when they were in "contention."



 

 

Interesting stats. 

Adding those vets being called "win-now" imo is a stretch, but I agree they were buyers. Not only were they better with the kids, according to the numbers, but those kinds of moves send a bad message to the younger players. Timing plays a big role here and I get that. I just don't want to see walls thrown up in front of our young players. Without them and their contributions, there is no "window" and the clock is already ticking on Rutch/Hendo.

Edited January 4, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[NCRaven]

18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Personally, I think Elias has done a lot of things, but his offseason so far has been pretty darn yech! He treaded water at best so far…

On this, we can definitely agree.