Are the Orioles done?

[wildcard]

I think the reason Odor played over Vavra was his ability to turn the DP.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the reason Odor played over Vavra was his ability to turn the DP.

I think that definitely was a factor, maybe more because of Vavra’s deficiencies than Odor’s strengths.  At the end of the day, only 1/7 of Odor’s chances resulted in a DP, so what happens the other 6/7 of the time is also important.  Odor made a lot of unforced errors and his range was so-so.   Turning a DP is far from the only aspect of playing good defense.  

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that definitely was a factor, maybe more because of Vavra’s deficiencies than Odor’s strengths.  At the end of the day, only 1/7 of Odor’s chances resulted in a DP, so what happens the other 6/7 of the time is also important.  Odor made a lot of unforced errors and his range was so-so.   Turning a DP is far from the only aspect of playing good defense.  

6/7 times there was probably not a runner on first.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

6/7 times there was probably not a runner on first.

That’s not my point.  My point is that the vast majority of defensive plays don’t involve the opportunity for a DP, so we should not judge a 2B exclusively or even primarily based on how good he is at turning DP’s.  That said, it’s obviously an important aspect of 2B defense.   

FWIW, 23% of all at bats take place with a runner on 1B and less than two outs, and about 10% of those result in a DP.  
 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I know I will regret this and I am foolish to respond but I have been watching you grind on this for a long term and I want to give you another perspective.

Odor - Few wanted him but Elias signed him last off season.   Elias did not expect the team to contend in 2022.   He signed Odor cheap because of his rep for being a good clubhouse leader who could help guide the young players through the tough times. And he had the rep of being a good defensive 2B.  Both  those things turned out to be true.   

So why did he stick with Odor after the team started to win?  Winning is the reason he stuck with him.  The O's had a winning combination going.  Odor was turning double plays with regularity and the team gelled with him as a clubhouse/dugout leader.  He was the first guy cheerleading the team along with Chirinos and it was working.  The team was winning beyond expectations.

As far as Aguilar, he was pick up for nothing with a month to go in the season.   This is a guy that in 2021  hit 22 homer, 93 RBI, and had a 781 OPS.   Maybe they saw something they thought they could turnaround.  And to some degree they were right.

He only got 49 at bats but in 29 of them were vs righties who he hit 310/333/448/781.  It was the 20 AB vs lefties that he did not hit.  So the O's were not terribly wrong about him.  

Now you can grind that those AB should have gone to Stowers but Stowers went  247/247/387/669 vs righties.  The O's were still in a pennant race when Aguilar was acquired.   The O's were still trying to win.  And Aguilar out hit Stowers vs righties.

Its pretty clear to me that Elias expected to sign more expensive FA when he made comments before December 1st.    But the market when higher than he thought was reasonable.  Too many years and too many dollars.   So he lowers his sights and signed players that were better than what he had last year.  And is now dependent on the young players continuing on being the ones to show big improvement in 2023.

One thing that continues to be true is multi year contracts to FA for big dollars normally are bad bets.  Those players normally under perform their contracts.   I thought the owners and GM had learned that lessen before the current CBA was signed.   But here we are again watching owners throw big dollars at aging players.  Its basically stupid and history has shown that.

JMO and not meant to be confrontational.  Just another perspective.

I really don' know why you wasted your time writing that. I know, they know, everyone knows your opinion on all of this. 

There are many kinds of fans. Some fans will always, and I mean always see the rosy, orange and black version of everything that happens and that's ok. 

My views are very clear as well, but unlike yours, mine is backed with facts and results. At the end of the day, you will always fan your way and I and others will fan in our way. 

My opinions are not based on my fandom or personal issues with a player, coach, or GM. They are based on my analysis of the situation by taking my heart out of situation, just like if I was asked to analyze another team. I do the same when I scout and analyze minor league players. This is why I grate on some types of fans because they think every prospect will hit their 90 percentile while I try and be more reasonable.

It's all alright though because if we only had one way to look at things it would get boring around here, but always remember, your take is based on being a fan and mine is based on statistical analysis based on previous results, age, health and other pieces that are brought into the equation. 

As fans, we all hope for bounce backs and for players to all take steps forward, but the reality of the situation is the more things that have to happen to be successful, the less chance of it actually happening.

[Camden Yards]

Well if you were hoping for a Phillips reunion, the Angels broke your heart!

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/angels-to-sign-brett-phillips-to-major-league-deal.html

[sportsfan8703]

Belt for 1yr $9.5 million made some sense. He gone. And to Toronto. 

[sportsfan8703]

Elias has done a nice job of checking off our needs. 
 

Jorge Lopez Replacement - Check

Backup C - Check

Odor replacement - Check

LH 1B/DH depth - Check

Vespi replacement - Check

Lyles replacement - Check

MILB depth at CF/C - Check

Now it just comes down to,

MLB SP - Wacha?

MILB SP - Waiver claim? Vet on MILB deal?

Luxury signing - Mancini?

[RZNJ]

#1 - #3 Starting Pitcher?  Not yet.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias has done a nice job of checking off our needs. 
 

Jorge Lopez Replacement - Check

Backup C - Check

Odor replacement - Check

LH 1B/DH depth - Check

Vespi replacement - Check

Lyles replacement - Check

MILB depth at CF/C - Check

Now it just comes down to,

MLB SP - Wacha?

MILB SP - Waiver claim? Vet on MILB deal?

Luxury signing - Mancini?

You mean, he has gone out and patched holes. I don’t know that he has fixed anything, outside of likely back up C.

[Number5]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean, he has gone out and patched holes. I don’t know that he has fixed anything, outside of likely back up C.

Well, patching holes quite literally means fixing things.  I think what you are trying to say is that the improvements have been minor in nature and not the major upgrades needed to take the next step up.  He's basically done the repairs necessary to get the old VW running a little better, but he hasn't traded it in on a new Mercedes.

[sportsfan8703]

I’m pretty sure Adley, Grayson, Mullins, and Gunnar, classify as Mercedes type players. 
 

So is Brian Cashman the best GM in baseball because they Yankees sign the top 1-2 FA every offseason?  
 

I think DD showed that adding deep depth to the talent Macphail assembled, was a way to out perform the team’s Pythagorean W/L. 
 

Elias has been a master at the waiver wire. His only loss was losing Jake Cave on waivers. That was a pretty smooth move. 
 

With FA pretty done, except for some relievers and position players, I think we’re going to see the waiver wire slow down until the end of ST. It’ll get really slow around mid February when teams can free up spots on the 40 man by being able to place injured players on the 60 day IL. We’ll be able to do this with Means, Johnson, and likely Vespi. Hopefully, nobody else. 
 

I think we could still supplement this team with Wach, a milb FA SP(Matt Harvey type), and 4th bench bat like (Mancini, Voit, Pham)

[Spy Fox]

Now we know they weren't done when this was polled. Regarding the poll options we have a trade that doesn't reshape the offseason, but it's a bit more serious than an O'Hearn type player.

I'd guess we're now at 50/50 odds or better that they actually are done adding major league roster players. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

Now we know they weren't done when this was polled. Regarding the poll options we have a trade that doesn't reshape the offseason, but it's a bit more serious than an O'Hearn type player.

I'd guess we're now at 50/50 odds or better that they actually are done adding major league roster players. 

I think if anyone else is added it's going to be another waiver claim.

[tntoriole]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:13 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias has done a nice job of checking off our needs. 
 

Jorge Lopez Replacement - Check

Backup C - Check

Odor replacement - Check

LH 1B/DH depth - Check

Vespi replacement - Check

Lyles replacement - Check

MILB depth at CF/C - Check

Now it just comes down to,

MLB SP - Wacha?

MILB SP - Waiver claim? Vet on MILB deal?

Luxury signing - Mancini?

I agree .. now Irvin .. better than Wacha