Szymborski's ZIPs Sneak Preview - Full Review Dropping Tomorrow

[eddie83]

29 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Yeah, left side of infield will be interesting to watch from Mad Science angle.    Some of I feel how you got those nice 2022 performances from Urias and Mateo is like many ballplayers they had the comfort of knowing where they would be most days.

If on the first 6 game roadtrip, Urias, Mateo, Frazier and Gunnar each make 4.5 starts on the dirt, I think that's risking trouble in real life.     We'll see if Elias can find a taker for Urias or Mateo before camp, but if he can't somebody has a tough job loss pill to take.     Maybe Ramon Urias is the backup 1B.

Anyhow, Kremer 3.6....fun!     

Sale 2.6, Manoah 4.3, Gausman 3.3, Cease 3.9, Bieber 4.5, Framber 4.1, Ohtani 4.5, deGrom 5.1 some other AL stars already forecast by ZiPS.

 

Going back to Steve’s point this should be a question the media asks Elias about? Is Gunnar staying at one spot or not? I agree he will play 3rd as long as Mateo is here. 
 

If that is the case then at least early on Urias would play 2nd vs LHP and DH some as you mentioned in another thread. The whole topic of Gunnar changes the dynamics of things. 

[Frobby]

These projections look fairly encouraging.  Put them together with the Fangraphs article saying we’ve had a net gain of 4 fWAR this winter and it seems like a projection of 83-87 wins would be pretty reasonable.  Not surprisingly, the position players are stronger than the pitching staff.   I look forward to seeing the details tomorrow.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

These projections look fairly encouraging.  Put them together with the Fangraphs article saying we’ve had a net gain of 4 fWAR this winter and it seems like a projection of 83-87 wins would be pretty reasonable.  Not surprisingly, the position players are stronger than the pitching staff.   I look forward to seeing the details tomorrow.   

Fangraphs’ depth charts with just the Steamer projections have the Orioles at 35.9 fWAR, #21 overall. ZIPS may like the Orioles more (they certainly like Kremer more) but I doubt they will move up more than a few places when ZIPS is added in. For reference, the Brewers are #15 at 41.9 fWAR. 

Barring some really unexpected moves before the start of the season, Fangraphs won’t be projecting the Orioles to even be .500, let alone 83-87 wins. More likely they will project in the 74-79 range. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fangraphs’ depth charts with just the Steamer projections have the Orioles at 35.9 fWAR, #21 overall. ZIPS may like the Orioles more (they certainly like Kremer more) but I doubt they will move up more than a few places when ZIPS is added in. For reference, the Brewers are #15 at 41.9 fWAR. 

Barring some really unexpected moves before the start of the season, Fangraphs won’t be projecting the Orioles to even be .500, let alone 83-87 wins. More likely they will project in the 74-79 range. 

All I know is that the tweeted chart shows 37.8 WAR and the threshold for a replacement level team is 47.6 wins. So, that’s a 85.4 win team per ZiPS.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The depth charts using only Steamer right now are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

The average WAR of all 30 teams is 40.42, so I would think the implied replacement level is 40.56 wins. The Orioles are about 4.5 wins below average, so that would be 76.5 wins with an average schedule - but they have a tougher than average schedule even with the more balanced schedule, so they would project a bit below that. 

Maybe the ZIPS replacement level is much different than the Steamer replacement level and ZIPS does actually project the Orioles for much higher - maybe I’m missing something, I’m not sure exactly what is going on here. All I know is that Fangraphs does their projected standings based on their depth charts once the depth charts are half Steamer and half ZIPS (and then accounting for strength of schedule). The Steamer half of that will project them to be a fair bit below .500. Hard to tell now what the end result will be once they load in ZIPS as well, but I’m not expecting to ultimately be projected above .500. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The depth charts using only Steamer right now are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

The average WAR of all 30 teams is 40.42, so I would think the implied replacement level is 40.56 wins. The Orioles are about 4.5 wins below average, so that would be 76.5 wins with an average schedule - but they have a tougher than average schedule even with the more balanced schedule, so they would project a bit below that. 

Maybe the ZIPS replacement level is much different than the Steamer replacement level and ZIPS does actually project the Orioles for much higher - maybe I’m missing something, I’m not sure exactly what is going on here. All I know is that Fangraphs does their projected standings based on their depth charts once the depth charts are half Steamer and half ZIPS (and then accounting for strength of schedule). The Steamer half of that will project them to be a fair bit below .500. Hard to tell now what the end result will be once they load in ZIPS as well, but I’m not expecting to ultimately be projected above .500. 

Orioles rank 13th with hitters and 27th in pitching. Ouch.  

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Orioles rank 13th with hitters and 27th in pitching. Ouch.  

Overall Orioles rank 21. Only KC, DET and OAK below in the AL.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

27 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Orioles rank 13th with hitters and 27th in pitching. Ouch.  

ZIPS is fortunately much higher on the pitching - much better projections for Kremer, Wells and the bullpen, for which Steamer is expecting a ton of regression. But yeah, even when that’s added in, the pitching will still be a glaring weakness in the projections. 

[eddie83]

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

ZIPS is fortunately much higher on the pitching - much better projections for Kremer, Wells and the bullpen, for which Steamer is expecting a ton of regression. But yeah, even when that’s added in, the pitching will still be a glaring weakness in the projections. 

I don’t get too worked up about these. It’s something to talk about during the winter. I think the bullpen is better than they do. 
 

That said from a wide view I think it’s far more probable that the lineups floor is not only higher so is the ceiling. I could see the Orioles position players being a Top 5 team in the AL. Defense plays a role in that.
 

From a run prevention angle obviously gloves are a big part of that. The Orioles are going to have to be better offensively and have better pitching to get to that 88 type win mark. I think with the additions and young talent the offense has far better odds of achieving that.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The depth charts using only Steamer right now are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

The average WAR of all 30 teams is 40.42, so I would think the implied replacement level is 40.56 wins. The Orioles are about 4.5 wins below average, so that would be 76.5 wins with an average schedule - but they have a tougher than average schedule even with the more balanced schedule, so they would project a bit below that. 

Maybe the ZIPS replacement level is much different than the Steamer replacement level and ZIPS does actually project the Orioles for much higher - maybe I’m missing something, I’m not sure exactly what is going on here. All I know is that Fangraphs does their projected standings based on their depth charts once the depth charts are half Steamer and half ZIPS (and then accounting for strength of schedule). The Steamer half of that will project them to be a fair bit below .500. Hard to tell now what the end result will be once they load in ZIPS as well, but I’m not expecting to ultimately be projected above .500. 

This suggests to me either that (1) Steamer has WAR inflation built in, or (2) the depth charts don’t include guys with negative WAR that inevitably drag down the team totals.   For example, the depth charts list 19 hitters and 25 pitchers, but last year the O’s used 25 hitters and 33 pitchers (excluding the two position players who pitched).   

Anyway, we know that in a preliminary cut before any offseason moves, ZiPS had the O’s at 78 wins.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/.  If the offseason moves have moved them up, it probably isn’t by much.

[Spy Fox]

Full projection and writeup is up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

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The building of Baltimore’s offense is coming along quite nicely; graduating two arguable no. 1 prospects to the majors in a single season has a curious way of doing that! The O’s should at least be locking up Adley Rutschman as soon as possible and ideally Gunnar Henderson as well. There’s no need to stay on both too long; everyone knows about Rutschman’s awesomeness, and I’ve written near-panegyrics about Henderson already. Similar to Mike Devereaux three (!) decades ago, Cedric Mullins is a borderline star.

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ZiPS likes the chances of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall becoming top-end starters, but why wait? If they do, it certainly makes the expensive ace easier to swallow, and no team has ever had too much good pitching as an actual problem. Sure, the O’s can still trade some of their deep prospect pool to acquire a pitcher, but it’s easier to make money than make prospects, and they have been running basement payrolls for years (and will continue to in 2023).

[jabba72]

I like the DL Hall and Grod projections. I think most would be thrilled if Hall had a 4.02 FIP in 18 starts. Only 87 projected innings though. Thats not really that helpful from a SP.

[Just Regular]

Austin Hays got Jim Traber, and Tyler Wells got Pete Harnisch as top comps.     It is fun when these systems find same team comps for the fanbases.     I assume with Hays-Traber it is only about the batting profile.

In the stats section, noticed John Means and Grayson Rodriguez forecast for identical ERA's and innings, though in Means' case the 110 listing is pie in the sky.     I'm sure he'll be raring to go but with April procedure my expectations are he's doing his first ~30 pitch minor league start maybe in late June.     I believe the minor league game ramp up will run at least 5 x 5 days.    

[Frobby]

ZiPS seems quite bullish on Henderson and Mountcastle.   I like to look at the 80/20 projections as well as the median. Here’s OPS+ for the key O’s (median projection first, then 80/20).  Last season in parentheses.

Rutschman 126/152/109 (128)

Henderson 123/143/105 (123)

Mountcastle 119/139/99 (105)

Santander 115/139/94 (117)

Urias 106/127/84 (103)

Mullins 104/124/85 (104)

Hays 102/124/84 (103)

Stowers 99/121/80 (104)

Vavra 94/114/75 (94)

Westburg 93/111/75 (n/a)

Frazier 91/108/76 (80)

McCann 87/105/66 (55)

Mateo 83/103/63 (81)

McKenna 78/98/59 (80)

Overall, pretty sunny, with Frazier and McCann getting pretty big bounce backs   .

 

[nvpacchi]

ZIPs is already quite bullish on both Drew Rom and Cade Povich-  projecting above average K rates, with fringy BB rates.  Rom maybe gets a chance this year, but I doubt Povich gets to test his luck at the ML level.

I still can't make out how ZIPs is so bullish on Kremer.  There's no noticeable jump in his K rate and his walk rate projection is similar to what he produced last year.  There's something they like in his HR supression, coming in at .79/9.  Definitely possible in Camden, but it just doesn't feel like he strikes enough guys out to be a 3+ win pitcher