What version of Cedric Mullins do you think we get this year?

[wildcard]

Mullins has to show he can hit lefties or he will be platooned this season.  Probably with McKenna like he was late last season.

[IPlayGM]

30 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think his BA and OBP will tick up.  In 3 less PAs in 2022, he saw 122 less pitches.  Working toward and extra pitch to hit per game.  He hammered 4seamers and splitters in 2021 and didn’t come close to repeating that in 2022 (of course pitchers pitched him differently too).  He has hit better when no shift was on for the last two years as well (almost .030 wOBA higher each year).  I can’t say his ISO/SLG will increase unless he can find a way to put pitchers in spots to key on FBs better.

I’ll guess a .275/.330/.405 type season with 30+ SB.  With a higher ceiling and more solid floor.  Still a top 5 CF.

And I would guess that every person on here would sign up for that 100%.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Mullins has to show he can hit lefties or he will be platooned this season.  Probably with McKenna like he was late last season.

Mullins did have pretty bad splits in 2022 (.579 OPS).  I can see him sitting against some lefties as well, but he did post a .788 OPS in 2021.  There's likely more data under the hood on pitch mix as well, so that could drive the sit/start decision.  That said, it's not like the CF alternatives are locks either.

One of these would be the CF alternative and this is their OPS vs. LHP:

McKenna vs LHP - .794 OPS 2022 (.613 career) - only real CF replacement defensively

Hays vs LHP - .703 OPS 2022 (.777 career)

Cowser vs LHP - .616 OPS 2022 (1.415 2021 vs. lower levels) - obviously a lot to prove vs LHP

Mateo vs LHP (for kicks/giggles) - .618 OPS 2022 (.624 career)

[MarCakes21]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

2021: .291/.360/.518, 37 2B and 30 HR, 137 OPS+, .931/.788 splits vs. RHP/LHP.

2022: .258/.318/.403, 32 2B and 16 HR, 104 OPS+, .782/.579 splits vs. RHP/LHP.

Do we get the 2021 version, the 2022 version, something in between, or something totally different?

This is an important key to how our team goes.  If he's a 2 WAR player, our team likely has fallen back to .500, but at 4-6 WAR we're likely playing better as a whole and in contention.  I imagine he's something in the middle, he certainly regressed, but many knew that was likely in 2022 anyways.  He was pitched to differently even in the second half of 2021, and all 2022.  Now if he makes adjustments, and hits LHP better, he can improve again.

I imagine he's likely in between the two, and would be thrilled with that.  He's going to get more protection from Adley behind him and hopefully is laying off the inner fastballs he wasn't able to keep fair, as well as seeing a few more pitches.  Something like .275/.320/450 with 20HR/30SB and a 115 OPS+.

[Sports Guy]

He has to stop trying to hit homers.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

and hopefully is laying off the inner fastballs he wasn't able to keep fair

Or adjusting to keep them fair.

[jamalshw]

I think we should expect something like we got last year which, while disappointing compared to 2021, was still a 3.8 WAR player. Ultimately, I expect something similar to last year. I will be a bit surprised if it's worse, not really surprised if a bit better, but rather shocked if it's more in line with 2021.

[MarCakes21]

15 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Or adjusting to keep them fair.

I think he needs to step off the plate by about 2 inches, but i'm no hitting pro.

[oriole]

I think that if wants to stay an everyday player then he has got to pick it up against LHP. I love Mullins, one of my favorite current Orioles, but unfortunately he is best suited as a platoon player. At best he can lead off vs RHP and maybe 8/9 against LHP to keep his glove out there. But McKenna is no slouch with the glove so if McKenna can hit well enough (pretty damn good against LHP last year) then it’d likely make up for any loss in the fielding/base running categories. 
 

To answer the OP question…I think Mullins can do better than last year. I think his 2021 was a peak year so I don’t think he’ll match that again. But if he can pull up his splits vs LHP in the .650 OPS territory even then I think he can stay an every day player. I also think the new pick off rules and bigger bases will have a big effect. I think 50 SB are on the table. That’s also considering that the loss of the shift will likely get him on base a bit more. Here’s my complete guess of a batting line prediction….270/.330/.470

Edited January 18, 2023 by oriole

[sportsfan8703]

I think somewhere in the middle of the last two seasons. This is the best lineup he’s ever hit in. Depending on if Frazier bounces back, and if Mateo puts it together, he could get a lot more RBI oops. Adley and Gunnar won’t hurt either. 

[Jim'sKid26]

#1 priority is to stay healthy. 

#2 priority, get on base. I would think an overall OBP north of .330 will allow him to approach 100 runs scored.

#3 continue to play great D.

If he does those 3 I would be satisfied. 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

#1 priority is to stay healthy. 

#2 priority, get on base. I would think an overall OBP north of .330 will allow him to approach 100 runs scored.

#3 continue to play great D.

If he does those 3 I would be satisfied. 

I almost wish Cedric didn't hit 30 HR in 2021.  You're not Ricky Henderson.  You're the O's leadoff hitter.  Your #1 goal is to get on base.  I would be very happy w/ .330 OBP.  Anything above that is a bonus.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I almost wish Cedric didn't hit 30 HR in 2021.  You're not Ricky Henderson.  You're the O's leadoff hitter.  Your #1 goal is to get on base.  I would be very happy w/ .330 OBP.  Anything above that is a bonus.

?

Ricky never hit 30 HR in a season and Ricky had a career OBP of 401.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

?

Ricky never hit 30 HR in a season and Ricky had a career OBP of 401.

I guess I just assumed he had hit 30 HR, probably multiple times d/t all his leadoff HR.  Cedric, you're not Mike Trout either, but you can emulate Trout's and Henderson's OBP.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I guess I just assumed he had hit 30 HR, probably multiple times d/t all his leadoff HR.  Cedric, you're not Mike Trout either, but you can emulate Trout's and Henderson's OBP.

I wish it were that easy.