Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, joelala said:

Thanks. Hope that is indeed the case that he holds velocity and location. I would need to look but it also concerns me a bit that he’s at 90 pitches after the fifth so frequently. I’m jaded, yes. 

He's not.

I don't know if they even let him hit 90 pitches at all last year.  They certainly didn't do it very often.  They'd pull him after five or six when his pitch count was in the 80's.

I'll take six solid and hand it over to the bullpen.  You don't get guys throwing complete games anymore.

[Explosivo]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Low expectations means you're never disappointed.

Now you’re getting it.

[Just Regular]

This past Hall cycle, I read someone remembering Don Sutton and how his Hall candidacy lagged in part because he "only" threw about 7 IP/start, and was a weakling who let the relievers cover the 8th and 9th.

Grayson and these Orioles are an interesting intersection on what a rest-science Club will do with an Elite arm.

Even guys like Mussina didn't have overwhelming HoF counting stats to old school writers, but future pitchers are heading towards even less opportunity to accumulate.     One of the distillations I heard was while not many think it, Johan Santana kind of is a modern day Hall of Famer on Quality.

The Active IP leaderboard has Five Guys at 2500 IP+ (only 12 years of TOR output to 200 IP sensibilities), but maybe no one else clearing that anytime soon.     Aaron Nola's 1228 IP through Age 29 are today's most by an <30 year old, as BAL begins its use of Grayson's Age 23-29.    

6.	Madison Bumgarner (14, 32)	2192.2	L
	Johnny Cueto (15, 36)	2192.2	R
8.	David Price (14, 36)	2143.2	L
9.	Aníbal Sánchez (16, 38)	2017.2	R
10.	Ian Kennedy (16, 37)	1888.0	R
11.	Charlie Morton (15, 38)	1797.0	R

[tntoriole]

Justin Verlander in first full season at age 23 was 17-9, 3.63 ERA, 187 IP with 124 Ks 

Max Scherzer first full season at 24 with AZ was 9-11 with 4.12 ERA and 170 IP and 174 Ks

Mike Mussina at first full season age 23 was 18-5 , 2.54 ERA and 241 IP with 130 Ks

 

Grayson will be artificially limited in innings so hard to say but i have high expectations.. as high as any of the above. 

Edited February 10, 2023 by tntoriole

[maybenxtyr]

23 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Justin Verlander in first full season at age 23 was 17-9, 3.63 ERA, 187 IP with 124 Ks 

Max Scherzer first full season at 24 with AZ was 9-11 with 4.12 ERA and 170 IP and 174 Ks

Mike Mussina at first full season age 23 was 18-5 , 2.54 ERA and 241 IP with 130 Ks

 

Grayson will be artificially limited in innings so hard to say but i have high expectations.. as high as any of the above. 

Mussina was a comp that I was thinking about yesterday. I forgot just how good he was. That was the timeframe when my interest was becoming all about the females.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Justin Verlander in first full season at age 23 was 17-9, 3.63 ERA, 187 IP with 124 Ks 

Max Scherzer first full season at 24 with AZ was 9-11 with 4.12 ERA and 170 IP and 174 Ks

Mike Mussina at first full season age 23 was 18-5 , 2.54 ERA and 241 IP with 130 Ks

 

Grayson will be artificially limited in innings so hard to say but i have high expectations.. as high as any of the above. 

So you’re declaring Rodriguez a Hall of Fame level pitcher before he’s thrown a pitch in MLB?   

There were six pitchers in all of MLB who debuted in 2022 and threw 100+ innings: 

George Kirby, 130 IP, 3.39 ERA. BA no. 12 prospect going into the season   

Hunter Greene, 125.2 IP, 4.44 ERA. BA no. 35.

Kyle Bradish, 117.2 IP, 4.90 ERA. Unranked.

Andrew Pallante, 108 IP, 3.17 ERA.  Unranked.

Graham Ashcraft, 105 IP, 4.89 ERA.  Unranked.

Nick Lodolo, 103.1 IP, 3.66 ERA. BA no. 36.

Other rookie-eligible pitchers over 100 IP in 2022: Reid Detmers 3.77 (BA no. 28), Spencer Strider 2.69, Joe Ryan 3.55 (BA no. 86), Glenn Otto 5.32, Jonathan Heasley 5.28.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Frobby

[tntoriole]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So you’re declaring Rodriguez a Hall of Fame level pitcher before he’s thrown a pitch in MLB?   

There were six pitchers in all of MLB who debuted in 2022 and threw 100+ innings: 

George Kirby, 130 IP, 3.39 ERA. BA no. 12 prospect going into the season   

Hunter Greene, 125.2 IP, 4.44 ERA. BA no. 35.

Kyle Bradish, 117.2 IP, 4.90 ERA. Unranked.

Andrew Pallante, 108 IP, 3.17 ERA.  Unranked.

Graham Ashcraft, 105 IP, 4.89 ERA.  Unranked.

Nick Lodolo, 103.1 IP, 3.66 ERA. BA no. 36.

Other rookie-eligible pitchers over 100 IP in 2022: Reid Detmers 3.77 (BA no. 28), Spencer Strider 2.69, Joe Ryan 3.55 (BA no. 86), Glenn Otto 5.32, Jonathan Heasley 5.28.

Hey Justin and Mike and Max all started out somewhere.  And with  his minor league performance, expectations are on the exact same level. 
Those guys didn’t become HOFers until they actually pitched … Grayson could be in the same category as them absolutely.  Or not lol 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Hey Justin and Mike and Max all started out somewhere.  And with  his minor league performance, expectations are on the exact same level. 
Those guys didn’t become HOFers until they actually pitched … Grayson could be in the same category as them absolutely.  Or not lol 

Based on the research I just did, I’ll say that I’d be disappointed if Rodriguez had an ERA over 3.75 or so.

[Es4M11]

120-140 ip
4.20-4.50 era
110-120 k
60-70 bb

I base this off nothing more than gut feeling. He will be serviceable this year, and eventually settle in as a solid mid rotation starter going forward. I don't think he's the ace we are all hoping for, but I'm also kind of an idiot when it comes to trying to predict these sort of things.

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

120-140 ip
4.20-4.50 era
110-120 k
60-70 bb

I base this off nothing more than gut feeling. He will be serviceable this year, and eventually settle in as a solid mid rotation starter going forward. I don't think he's the ace we are all hoping for, but I'm also kind of an idiot when it comes to trying to predict these sort of things.

All of us are.  Trying to predict position players is hard enough, trying to predict pitchers is downright impossible most of the time.

I will say I think some folks are a bit more bearish on him than I expected.  Wonder if his performance after return from injury last year is impacting people's opinions of him more than I would think.  Or people just assume all Orioles pitching prospects will bust, which is not an unreasonable expectation after the last 3 decades.

[Es4M11]

22 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

All of us are.  Trying to predict position players is hard enough, trying to predict pitchers is downright impossible most of the time.

I will say I think some folks are a bit more bearish on him than I expected.  Wonder if his performance after return from injury last year is impacting people's opinions of him more than I would think.  Or people just assume all Orioles pitching prospects will bust, which is not an unreasonable expectation after the last 3 decades.

Personally, the organization's track record does give weigh negatively on my outlook. That said, this is a different group running the show and I can give them the benefit of the doubt. But no denying this organization is snake bitten when it comes to developing pitchers. Another factor in my feelings is history tells us that some of these guys are going to fail. We have seemingly hit on our first two of our blue chip prospects in Rutschman & Henderson - what are the chances we hit on three in a row? Like I said it's just a gut feeling, and not based on anything but my own personal bias, I guess. Though Rodriguez's return after a long layoff from what was supposed to be a minor injury was not encouraging. Couple his poor return with multiple scouts saying they saw a decline in Rodriguez's breaking ball last year, and lets just say I'm not sold yet.

[Aristotelian]

I am just not getting all the negativity. Are you guys baseball fans? Dare to dream! I know it is smart to be conservative/realistic to expect prospects to struggle but this kid has a tremendous resume. He is the top pitching prospect in MLB and has done everything that could be expected of a top prospect aside from throwing 150 IP. Yes, "ace" is still a 75th percentile outcome for him but I certainly think it is reasonable to expect such a strong prospect to come in significantly lower than the league average 3.97 ERA, yet people are projecting in the mid 4's?

 

The disconnect I really don't understand is that people still seem bullish on Hall, who can't throw strikes to minor leaguers. What is more realistic, Hall outperforming his AAA ERA by 70 points or Grayson underperforming his AAA ERA by 2 runs? 

[foxfield]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am just not getting all the negativity. Are you guys baseball fans? Dare to dream! I know it is smart to be conservative/realistic to expect prospects to struggle but this kid has a tremendous resume. He is the top pitching prospect in MLB and has done everything that could be expected of a top prospect aside from throwing 150 IP. Yes, "ace" is still a 75th percentile outcome for him but I certainly think it is reasonable to expect such a strong prospect to come in significantly lower than the league average 3.97 ERA, yet people are projecting in the mid 4's?

 

The disconnect I really don't understand is that people still seem bullish on Hall, who can't throw strikes to minor leaguers. What is more realistic, Hall outperforming his AAA ERA by 70 points or Grayson underperforming his AAA ERA by 2 runs? 

This is a trick question as I am sure Can of Corn would be willing to attest.  The answer is they are probably both going to fail...it's the Oriole Way.

Seriously, I agree with you.  If Grayson is healthy in spring training I think he has a strong year which means I expect league average to be his healthy floor.

Edited February 10, 2023 by foxfield
spelling

[NJOriolesFan]

11-7, 140 innings, 3.40 ERA, 9.0 K/IP, 2.8 BB/IP

 

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

We have seemingly hit on our first two of our blue chip prospects in Rutschman & Henderson - what are the chances we hit on three in a row?

I understand the "we can't have good things" thinking, given our history under Angelos, but it doesn't really work that way, IMO.  Putting aside the fact that the odds of a coin-flip landing on heads on a third flip after two consecutive results of heads is still 50-50,  I believe that any impact that Adley and Gunnar achieving positive results have upon Grayson would be on the positive side.