Jackson Holliday 2023

[deward]

2 hours ago, johnrambo said:

Hes only 19. So obviously doesnt have his man strength yet. Hes AT LEAST 3 years away from that. Hes going to get stronger and maybe he can change his launch angle. But hes 6' tall so not exactly tall. Also is already fairly muscular. Doesnt have that wiry power build like Corbin Carroll, Manny Machado or Elly De La Cruz. Also doesnt have a big huge guy build like Chris Davis either. Hes never going to be a physically big or strong man. I'd be happy with 25HRs a season. I dont see him developing into a big power threat with his build. 

He's plenty big and strong enough to hit home runs. If Mookie Betts can hit 30+ home runs, there's no reason Holliday couldn't. It'll just depend on how his swing settles in.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, deward said:

He had a .795 OPS last year. That's good, especially for a 2B, but I wouldn't call it great, or dominant. 

All I'm saying is that Arraez is every bit as one-dimensional as some low average slugger, just in a different way. I don't expect Holliday to fall into that category.

Yes I agree that he is a one-dimensional player (Arraez that is) just in a very different way as you stated. But it goes to my point that success can be found in multiple ways as the game evolves out of the TTO dominated era.

[johnrambo]

9 minutes ago, deward said:

He's plenty big and strong enough to hit home runs. If Mookie Betts can hit 30+ home runs, there's no reason Holliday couldn't. It'll just depend on how his swing settles in.

Mookie Betts Forearms look like copper wire. Holliday needs a few more years in the gym.

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, johnrambo said:

Holliday is a great talent. Although I do wonder if his high groundball rate will cap his ceiling. Projects to be a 15HR kind of guy unless he can start changing his launch angle. 

I think we'll see that rate lower as he gets more mature and stronger. I'm not too worried about his groundball rate yet.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, deward said:

It's a stretch to call Arraez great, outside of so far this year. He doesn't rack up a bunch of doubles and triples, much less home runs. He doesn't walk a ton. He doesn't steal bases. He's never driven in or scored a ton of runs. As far as I can tell, he's just ok on defense. All his value relies on him hitting singles, and you have to hit a lot of singles to be great based on that. He's pulled that off so far in 2023, but before this year he ranged from ok to good. Maybe he'll spend the rest of his prime hitting like Gwynn or Boggs, but that's a lot to ask. Holliday will have a much easier path towards being great if he continues to show that he has other ways to impact the game.

Holliday will definitely have more power than Arraez. I think he's end up an 18-25 kind of guy with lots of doubles and a very high walk rate.

[johnrambo]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we'll see that rate lower as he gets more mature and stronger. I'm not too worried about his groundball rate yet.

I hope so. Think he can still get stronger, but I dont think he ever becomes a particularly strong man. He said himself a few days ago. "I'm not a strong guy".

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

I hope so. Think he can still get stronger, but I dont think he ever becomes a particularly strong man. He said himself a few days ago. "I'm not a strong guy".

And he's doing just fine right now the way that he is (especially given that he is still a teenager). IMO he doesn't have to try to become something that he is not or try to morph his game into something that it may not be suited to be. He wasn't chosen 1:1 not selected as a consensus #1 prospect in the sport by accident. He will be fine, even if he doesn't put on a bunch of bulk and mass. Some will naturally come as he ages and grows.

[deward]

51 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

I hope so. Think he can still get stronger, but I dont think he ever becomes a particularly strong man. He said himself a few days ago. "I'm not a strong guy".

Genuinely perplexed with this notion that Holliday isn't already a strong kid.

Please enjoy this display of opposite field power...

Holliday is already plenty strong, and has a good frame to build on (when did 6' become short?). His EV's are already top quality. He's going to hit plenty of home runs.

[Alasdaire]

If you want to comp one of our guys to Luis Arraez, it's Cesar Prieto. That's an optimal outcome, but there's more to learn from dreaming about that than with a different-in-kind player in Jackson Holliday.

As for Jackson saying he's not a "strong guy," his touchstone is probably his dad, who was 6'4" 235 during his playing days (and looks even bigger now). Jackson isn't that, but you wouldn't want him to be given that those sorts of players are limited to a few low-value positions on defense. He's plenty strong enough for his position.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Alasdaire said:

If you want to comp one of our guys to Luis Arraez, it's Cesar Prieto. That's an optimal outcome, but there's more to learn from dreaming about that than with a different-in-kind player in Jackson Holliday.

As for Jackson saying he's not a "strong guy," his touchstone is probably his dad, who was 6'4" 235 during his playing days (and looks even bigger now). Jackson isn't that, but you wouldn't want him to be given that those sorts of players are limited to a few low-value positions on defense. He's plenty strong enough for his position.

Have you seen his "little" brother?

[Alasdaire]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Have you seen his "little" brother?

Exactly, Ethan is on that trajectory too. So that's who Jackson is referring to when he says he's not a "strong guy." He's still a strong guy.

[scarey1999]

I stood next to him at field level in Sarasota a couple times this spring. He’s what I might call deceptively well put together, size wise. While he won’t fool anyone for Tyler O’Neill or Giancarlo, his forearms are definitely not anywhere near wiry, skinny or small. 

His frame absolutely supports some additional weight as he continues to mature and get stronger.

[emmett16]

8 hours ago, johnrambo said:

I hope so. Think he can still get stronger, but I dont think he ever becomes a particularly strong man. He said himself a few days ago. "I'm not a strong guy".

He is a big dude when you see him up close.  He will get bigger.  He has elite bat speed & he will hit his fair share or HR.  If Frazier can knock 12+ playing in OPACY, Holiday is good for 25.  A good amount of his HR this year are to opposite field.  I’m not worried at all about Holidays power.  

Edited July 18, 2023 by emmett16

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think we'll see that rate lower as he gets more mature and stronger. I'm not too worried about his groundball rate yet.

Heck, I remember when you were worried about Kjerstad’s ground ball rate last year.  He certainly solved that problem!   I have no doubt that Holliday will.  

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Heck, I remember when you were worried about Kjerstad’s ground ball rate last year.  He certainly solved that problem!   I have no doubt that Holliday will.  

I wasn't worried, I brought it up as something to watch. I make observations on players and tell you all what to keep an eye on. At no point do I recall being "worried" about his ground ball rate.