Jackson Holliday 2023

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Holiday gets a ton of infield hits.  

I think it speaks to his approach when he's behind in the count.  He seems very selective with a power swing when he's ahead.  And sacrifices power for contact when he's behind.  Looking at his stats, his relatively equal Pull% and Oppo% (and low Cent%) might validate that too (obviously other factors go into that too).  

 

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, baltfan said:

So the walk rate is really interesting to me.  Obviously he has a good eye, but a lot of times I feel like we mistake the walk rate during a slump with the player knowingly adjusting and working counts.  Instead, it is more that they are missing more strikes so they naturally fall further into counts and tend to walk more because of strike zone judgment.  If you look at Gunnar, his walk rate during his hot streak has been less than 5%.  Is he all of the sudden not as good at working the count.  No, he is just hitting the ball more often.  I guess my point is that guys are never as good at walking as they look during a slump or as bad at walking as when they are in a hot streak--except for Barry Bonds.

I understand what you are saying, but the point is, all players go through slumps when they are not seeing the ball well. You know, the "missing more strikes" as you put it. 

The reason why the good hitters still get on base via walks during these times is that they are able to fight pitches off and have that good eye not to expand the strike zone very often.

So yes, we've seen walk rates decline from Henderson when he started hitting ball which is fine, because a hit is better than a walk in many ways. They key point I was making is that the really special offensive players find ways to continue to get on base during those inevitable cold streaks when they are not seeing the ball as well.

That's what Holliday has shown so far during this first slump of his life most likely. That's a very good sign in my opinion.

[baltfan]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I understand what you are saying, but the point is, all players go through slumps when they are not seeing the ball well. You know, the "missing more strikes" as you put it. 

The reason why the good hitters still get on base via walks during these times is that they are able to fight pitches off and have that good eye not to expand the strike zone very often.

So yes, we've seen walk rates decline from Henderson when he started hitting ball which is fine, because a hit is better than a walk in many ways. They key point I was making is that the really special offensive players find ways to continue to get on base during those inevitable cold streaks when they are not seeing the ball as well.

That's what Holliday has shown so far during this first slump of his life most likely. That's a very good sign in my opinion.

Yeah, we are in agreement, but it does have to be part of the evaluation.  When Henderson wasn't hitting but walking as much as he was, it was natural for some to think that if he were hitting .250 he would be walking at the same rate.  The only current guy that I can think of that this seems to apply to is Soto.  Was more making a point than disagreeing with anything you said. 

I also think that Orioles minor league hitter stats are possibly more inflated than those for other teams since they are so good at teaching discipline and swinging at balls you can do damage to.  With crappy minors pitching that can inflate stats.  In the majors, there aren't going to be as many mistakes and, like it did with Gunnar, can cause a player to fall behind in the count too often.  When Gunnar was slumping I repeatedly said in threads he was taking waaay too many early strikes.  His adjustment has clearly been to not take so many.  Adley leads the MLB in first pitches taken.  That might at some point prove suboptimal.  For guys as good as Gunnar, Adley, or Holliday, they will likely be able to make adjustments.  However, there might be a group of above average guys in the Orioles system who won't be able to adjust.  That's why there maybe has to be a little more trust in the Orioles evaluation of their minors hitters and how ready they really are.  I am sure they are looking for thing like holes in the strike zone that are difficult for people to see who don't watch these guys every day.

[Alasdaire]

Holliday played his first game as the 3B today.

They've moved him off of short a few times to let Carter Young/Frederick Bencosme get time there, but they always just defaulted to putting Jackson at second. And we've seen with other prospects that it's not a given that they'll move them all around the diamond just because it's the minors. So it does feel like a small development to see him used at third for the first time.

[pdiddy]

Officially announced to the Futures game today. Not a surprise. Kjerstad also going, which is nice.

[Sports Guy]

 

[glenn__davis]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

"Challenge accepted."

-Mike Elias

[Aglets]

Problem with 2nd half of 2024 is I bet Elias really wants that extra draft pick compensation from having him on the roster on Opening Day and competing for ROY.

He ain't starting in Baltimore on Opening Day 2024.   So that implies either a delay until OD 2025......or they do with him what they did with Gunnar.....a delay until pretty darn late in 2024 so he doesn't lose rookie eligibility the next year.

I think the Gunnar schedule is most probable.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Problem with 2nd half of 2024 is I bet Elias really wants that extra draft pick compensation from having him on the roster on Opening Day and competing for ROY.

He ain't starting in Baltimore on Opening Day 2024.   So that implies either a delay until OD 2025......or they do with him what they did with Gunnar.....a delay until pretty darn late in 2024 so he doesn't lose rookie eligibility the next year.

I think the Gunnar schedule is most probable.

I think some of this goes away as the team is a real contender. They didn’t view them as a real contender last year. 
 

That obviously changes going forward.

[sevastras]

The draft pick still matters, that will never change under ME. He would have been the one trading for draft picks when the last regime were trading them away. 
It wouldn’t surprise me if Holliday is sent to Bowie after the AS break even though he is slumping. Depending on what he does there, I could see him coming up for a cup down the stretch and starting opening day SS next year. Second half of 2024 doesn’t seem likely to me unless he really struggles the rest of the year at Bowie. 

[LookinUp]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:43 AM, Tony-OH said:

The reason why the good hitters still get on base via walks during these times is that they are able to fight pitches off and have that good eye not to expand the strike zone very often.

I think part of the cold streaks is observed as they're "fighting pitches off" instead of barreling them up. The problem is, they're not trying to hit foul balls. They're just missing balls that they hit harder when they're hot.

On 6/21/2023 at 10:12 AM, baltfan said:

When Gunnar was slumping I repeatedly said in threads he was taking waaay too many early strikes.  His adjustment has clearly been to not take so many.  

This is the art of hitting. When to take. When to be aggressive. Being aggressive allows the hitter to time a guy up earlier in the count, but also results in the hitter either swinging and missing at bad pitches or (worse) making weak contact on pitcher's pitches.

I could argue you want to be aggressive on a guy throwing 100 because you're more likely to swing and miss on your first swing than you are on a guy who's just average. But that's the trap. It varies by pitcher and count, and the other team has guys running analytics and working hard to get you out too. It's really just so incredibly hard to be a great hitter these days. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sevastras said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if Holliday is sent to Bowie after the AS break even though he is slumping.

I’d say the slump is over, even though he’s not red-hot.  .294/.455/.529 over the last week will do just fine.  

That said, I don’t think they’ll be in any huge hurry to get him to Bowie.  Put me down for Monday, July 17.  
 

[Sports Guy]

The futures game is July 8. I tend to doubt they move him before then. They are off for the AS break after that.

Come back the 14th for a weekend series before the Monday day off.

So yea, July 17 makes sense to me.

That leaves 54 regular season games left for him in AA. Figure he gets one day off a week, as I believe that’s what has happened so far this year.

So, he should get somewhere close to 200 at bats in AA this year 

If he is playing well, that should easily be enough time for him to go to AAA to start the year.

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, sevastras said:

The draft pick still matters, that will never change under ME. He would have been the one trading for draft picks when the last regime were trading them away. 
It wouldn’t surprise me if Holliday is sent to Bowie after the AS break even though he is slumping. Depending on what he does there, I could see him coming up for a cup down the stretch and starting opening day SS next year. Second half of 2024 doesn’t seem likely to me unless he really struggles the rest of the year at Bowie. 

i'm a little confused.  I agree he is likely to go to Bowie after the All Star break.   You are aware that there is another level between AA and MLB right?

Or are you suggesting Elias will have him skip Norfolk completely?   I think that is incredibly, incredibly unlikely.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The futures game is July 8. I tend to doubt they move him before then. They are off for the AS break after that.

Come back the 14th for a weekend series before the Monday day off.

So yea, July 17 makes sense to me.

That leaves 54 regular season games left for him in AA. Figure he gets one day off a week, as I believe that’s what has happened so far this year.

So, he should get somewhere close to 200 at bats in AA this year 

If he is playing well, that should easily be enough time for him to go to AAA to start the year.

Sounds about right to me.  But I don’t take it for granted that the move to Bowie will be an easy one for him.  I hope it is, but we’ll see.