Jackson Holliday 2023

[waroriole]

44 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Do they?

Ortiz:

.341 (better by .016) / .392 / .540 (better by .008)  / .933

58 runs 

50 RBI

103 Hits

40 XBH (Tweet above is wrong - Holiday has 40 XBH 22 2b 8 3b 10 hr)

10 SB

8 HR

26 BB

 

The statement that Ortiz has better stats is categorically wrong.  

 

With all that said, if they are planning to start him in the OD lineup next year they should bring him up and get him some MLB ABS.  

 

 

I assume the plan is to call him up mid summer next year. If he becomes the player he’s expected to, an extra year of team control is more valuable than a 1st round pick. 

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I assume the plan is to call him up mid summer next year. If he becomes the player he’s expected to, an extra year of team control is more valuable than a 1st round pick. 

By what metric?  I don't think you can 'expect' anyone to become a superstar 5+ WAR player.  I think short of that, a 1st round pick would be more valuable.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

By what metric?  I don't think you can 'expect' anyone to become a superstar 5+ WAR player.  I think short of that, a 1st round pick would be more valuable.  

I suggest you look at historical outcomes for picks in the low-to-mid-30’s

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

By what metric?  I don't think you can 'expect' anyone to become a superstar 5+ WAR player.  I think short of that, a 1st round pick would be more valuable.  

Is the logic that a late 1st round pick is worth 5 WAR on average? I would say 3-4 WAR in one season is worth more than 5 spread throughout a career. 

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is the logic that a late 1st round pick is worth 5 WAR on average? I would say 3-4 WAR in one season is worth more than 5 spread throughout a career. 

~4.5WAR is what I've come across for avg. career war of 1st round pick.  With our drafting and development staff, I like the safety in numbers approach.  I think if they get Jackson up to MLB ASAP it also bodes well for a potential extension.  Maybe he'd be ok on a 7- or 8-year deal going into next season, or season after, so that he can hit the FA market before he turns 30.  I like the approach of don't put all your eggs in one basket and spread out the risk.  With all that said, I think there is nothing wrong with your preference/approach.  Just another possible way to do things.  

[emmett16]

32 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I suggest you look at historical outcomes for picks in the low-to-mid-30’s

Where can I find that info?  Genuinely curious.  Been reading a few articles on that subject this morning.  Seems a lot has to do with whether we are talking a college P, college batter, HS P, or HS batter.  Gunnar Henderson is looking pretty solid as a #42 pick.  (I know I know, one dude

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Where can I find that info?  Genuinely curious.  Been reading a few articles on that subject this morning.  Seems a lot has to do with whether we are talking a college P, college batter, HS P, or HS batter.  Gunnar Henderson is looking pretty solid as a #42 pick.  (I know I know, one dude

NM, finally found some good stuff on FG. 

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

I assume the plan is to call him up mid summer next year. If he becomes the player he’s expected to, an extra year of team control is more valuable than a 1st round pick. 

He is likely to get the Gunnar treatment next year.  They will let Ortiz play and see what they have. 

[Gurgi]

3 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I suggest you look at historical outcomes for picks in the low-to-mid-30’s

Only thing of importance is what Elias's drafting track record is.  I think he is better than 95% of draft groups.

[Just Regular]

Applying the Elias lessons, I think a study improvement of that kind of things should work with bonus money as the input, not draft position.      The Rookie of the Year bonus is near to $3mm slot value, and I ballpark believe Cohen's share US draft pool dollars translate to about 5X in onfield value.

If Gunnar earns Elias a $15mm asset next July, it may not be until after his Arb2 season in 2027 that Angelos/Elias/the Baltimore Orioles Club have paid Gunnar $15mm.

Elias seems like he knows what to do with a few million in pool money.    Of course John Angelos may be dreading where in the couch cushions he'll be able to pay those bonuses the same year as Anthony Santander's arb.

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Do they?

Ortiz:

.341 (better by .016) / .392 / .540 (better by .008)  / .933

58 runs 

50 RBI

103 Hits

40 XBH (Tweet above is wrong - Holiday has 40 XBH 22 2b 8 3b 10 hr)

10 SB

8 HR

26 BB

 

The statement that Ortiz has better stats is categorically wrong.  

 

With all that said, if they are planning to start him in the OD lineup next year they should bring him up and get him some MLB ABS.  

 

 

And just like that Holiday eclipsed Ortiz in Avg. & Slg, also.  The kid is special. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Do they?

Ortiz:

.341 (better by .016) / .392 / .540 (better by .008)  / .933

58 runs 

50 RBI

103 Hits

40 XBH (Tweet above is wrong - Holiday has 40 XBH 22 2b 8 3b 10 hr)

10 SB

8 HR

26 BB

 

The statement that Ortiz has better stats is categorically wrong.  

 

With all that said, if they are planning to start him in the OD lineup next year they should bring him up and get him some MLB ABS.  

 

 

I don't think Holliday is getting called up this year, but with injuries in the outfield and Hays slumping maybe it's time to give Kjerstad a look even if it means making a move on the 40 man roster.

[OriolesMagic83]

11 hours ago, baltfan said:

4.  They have a guy at SS in AAA with better stats, and who is better in the field.  (Of course, he isn’t as good as a Holliday will be). 

I feel the O's missed an opportunity to build up Ortiz's value.  He only had to hit better than Mateo, which has been an awfully low bar since May.  Maybe the plan is to trade Westburg (now a productive MLB regular) and keep Ortiz.  Ortiz/Holliday will man 2B/SS.  Top prospects are worth quite a bit, but MLB regulars w/ 6 years of control are worth even more, imo.

[baltfan]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I feel the O's missed an opportunity to build up Ortiz's value.  He only had to hit better than Mateo, which has been an awfully low bar since May.  Maybe the plan is to trade Westburg (now a productive MLB regular) and keep Ortiz.  Ortiz/Holliday will man 2B/SS.  Top prospects are worth quite a bit, but MLB regulars w/ 6 years of control are worth even more, imo.

He probably has plenty value killing it in AAA vs barely playing in the majors. 

[deward]

29 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I feel the O's missed an opportunity to build up Ortiz's value.  He only had to hit better than Mateo, which has been an awfully low bar since May.  Maybe the plan is to trade Westburg (now a productive MLB regular) and keep Ortiz.  Ortiz/Holliday will man 2B/SS.  Top prospects are worth quite a bit, but MLB regulars w/ 6 years of control are worth even more, imo.

What has Westburg done to deserve being supplanted by Ortiz?