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Demise of the two-way CF

btdart20

By btdart20
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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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29 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I kinda feel the opposite.  I think his numbers will continue to regress and that he won't match his 2022 numbers.  With his splits at the plate and decline in speed I honestly think he's a bit overrated around here.  Very solid piece, and should be for a few more years, but not someone I'd consider a building block or untouchable.  I'd certainly trade him for the right deal.  

He put up very solid 3.8 WAR/3.4 fWAR. His .721 OPS was disappointing coming off his crazy 2021, but in a year that leaguewide offense was down that was still good for 104 OPS+. The question to me is whether he has any chance of approaching his 2021 or if that will be a Brady Anderson type of outlier. If he can get his OPS back to say .770 that would be a nice boost. 

One thing I noticed, he hit against pretty extreme shifts. That surprised me because a hitter with his speed really shouldn't be a dead pull hitter, but apparently he is.  With the new rule he should be able to get a good number more balls into the outfield with that bigger hole out there. Then again, he could be a candidate for an outfield shift if he doesn't have power to left. 

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clapdiddy
clapdiddy

I think if you move Mullins to LF, he loses a lot of value. 

Frobby
Frobby

Of the 16 centerfielders rated at 6+ Outs Above Average, Mullins (+9) had the third slowest sprint time at 28.4 ft/sec.  Only Daulton Varsho (+8, 28.0) and Cody Bellinger (+7, 28.1) were slower.   Mul

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

If they're going to trade Mullins, the time is now.  Or it was this past offseason.  I'm not sure what "significant" trade value entails...but in my mind, when I see posters say something like that, I

forphase1 Hangout Veteran Council

forphase1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

He put up very solid 3.8 WAR/3.4 fWAR. His .721 OPS was disappointing coming off his crazy 2021, but in a year that leaguewide offense was down that was still good for 104 OPS+. The question to me is whether he has any chance of approaching his 2021 or if that will be a Brady Anderson type of outlier. If he can get his OPS back to say .770 that would be a nice boost. 

One thing I noticed, he hit against pretty extreme shifts. That surprised me because a hitter with his speed really shouldn't be a dead pull hitter, but apparently he is.  With the new rule he should be able to get a good number more balls into the outfield with that bigger hole out there. Then again, he could be a candidate for an outfield shift if he doesn't have power to left. 

Sure.  As I said he's a very solid piece.  But some act like he should be untouchable and a pillar to build the team around the next few years and I just don't see him as that.  I'd love for him to prove me wrong and approach what he did in 2021, but I'm not very hopeful of that happening.  No doubt that it's a huge different between him having a .721 OPS versus a .770 or so.  I hope we see that kind of improvement out of him.  But I'm skeptical.  

Good point about the shift...I do wonder how much of a difference that is going to make.  I looked at a few lists online that reports to claim 'these players will be affected most by the shift ban', some gaining 20 more hits or so.  They listed those they expected to gain 8+ hits, and Mullins was not on that list.  No clue the accuracy of these things of course, but most don't seem to think it'll help him a great deal.  Link below if you are interested.  Long and short I think it'll help him a bit, but not enough to make a huge impact.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/hitters-likely-to-be-affected-by-shift-ban

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seak05 All-Star

seak05

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People on this board really underrate the need for good defense in CF. Mullins is a well above average MLB player even if he hits like he did last year. The chances of the Orioles being able to replace him with someone who is a better overall CF is incredibly low, even if he hits the same as he did last year. That's why Nimmo got such a large contract. If you want the Orioles to trade Mullins it had better be for a real upgrade at another position (now Elias might trade him for prospects, and that might even be a good overall baseball more long term...but not for 2023/24)

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

People on this board really underrate the need for good defense in CF. Mullins is a well above average MLB player even if he hits like he did last year. The chances of the Orioles being able to replace him with someone who is a better overall CF is incredibly low, even if he hits the same as he did last year. That's why Nimmo got such a large contract. If you want the Orioles to trade Mullins it had better be for a real upgrade at another position (now Elias might trade him for prospects, and that might even be a good overall baseball more long term...but not for 2023/24)

I know fewer balls than ever end up in play.  I know the most information ever is available to aid in positioning.

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