Adam Frazier 2023

[Too Tall]

Frazier - The Evil Empire Slayer. Thrust a stake into their heart on national TV. Good for him! (Adding to The Book of Frazier.)

[DrungoHazewood]

I've not been as active around here in a while, so haven't participated or read through this whole thread. But Frazier is a weird, polarizing player. A little bit out of that Rougned Odor mold. Been a really good hitter with runners on, but just Chris Davis kind of bad with the bases empty. DRS has him as a very slightly below average fielder, but he's either last or very close to last in OAA, which should be trusted far more. 

His xBA is in the top 10% of the league, but his actual average is .239.  7th percentile exit velocity, 4th percentile hard hit, 10th percentile barrel, but 90+% contact.

All in all a decent player, I'm guessing he's not going anywhere this year. But with the backlog of middle infielders in the system I don't see him returning for '24 unless a bunch of trades are made.

[eddie83]

Couldn’t help myself. 

[Since1984]

On 7/31/2023 at 10:37 AM, Too Tall said:

Frazier - The Evil Empire Slayer. Thrust a stake into their heart on national TV. Good for him! (Adding to The Book of Frazier.)

His OPS with runners in scoring position exceeds 900! The analytics dept at the warehouse is still salivating 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Since1984 said:

His OPS with runners in scoring position exceeds 900! The analytics dept at the warehouse is still salivating 

The analytics department is well aware that performance in any particular split, especially contexts like "clutch" or "Tuesday" or "September", is highly likely to revert to something like the player's overall performance. So Frazier is a .728 kind of hitter, and even accounting for the fact that everyone hits better with runners on than not, the best guess at his clutch performance going forward is about .750.

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The analytics department is well aware that performance in any particular split, especially contexts like "clutch" or "Tuesday" or "September", is highly likely to revert to something like the player's overall performance. So Frazier is a .728 kind of hitter, and even accounting for the fact that everyone hits better with runners on than not, the best guess at his clutch performance going forward is about .750.

I'll take .750 from a seven-hole hitter in today's average run environment.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I'll take .750 from a seven-hole hitter in today's average run environment.

Yea, sure, that's fine. The only counter I have to that is that's it's pretty likely that Westburg, Ortiz, etc are better players. Longer term much better. Certainly when you take defense into account.

[25 Nuggets]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, sure, that's fine. The only counter I have to that is that's it's pretty likely that Westburg, Ortiz, etc are better players. Longer term much better. Certainly when you take defense into account.

The Legend of Frazier will be fleeting.  Perhaps we shall erect an effigy in his honor.

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, sure, that's fine. The only counter I have to that is that's it's pretty likely that Westburg, Ortiz, etc are better players. Longer term much better. Certainly when you take defense into account.

But the question of course is only 2023.  Cause he only has a 2023 deal. And the issue of rookies being better has to be balanced against the nonoroductive month or two that Adley, Gunnar, Colton have all showed.  So Frazier for right now, for just the rest of 2023 is not an unreasonable choice. 
Plus he does do things in weird and pressure situations that pennant winners have..call it luck but all pennant winners have guys that perform unexpectedly in key moments.. Bucky Dent syndrome lol 

[LTO's]

16 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Couldn’t help myself. 

But he would've saved John Angelos $6 million!!!

[baltfan]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, sure, that's fine. The only counter I have to that is that's it's pretty likely that Westburg, Ortiz, etc are better players. Longer term much better. Certainly when you take defense into account.

If Frazier wasn't as clutch as he has been, he would likely be riding the bench and Westburg or Ortiz would get more time.  However, he has been one of the best clutch hitters in baseball.  Is that because in clutch situations his outcomes are closer to what the metrics say they should be?  Is it just a SSS?  I don't think anyone knows, but so long as he keeps getting big hits you have to keep sending him out there.  It isn't like there is no precedent for a guy being excellent in clutch situations for a year.  There is no evidence that Westburg or Ortiz this year are likely to perform at Frazier's level in the clutch, so it makes sense to ride the wave.  You might argue then, just put him in for clutch at-bats.  But you run the risk that he needs the other at-bats to have these clutch results.  There definitely is no doubt that clutch hitting has a positive effect on team morale.

 

Santander is #1 and Frazier in #2 in the MLB in Clutch per Fangraphs.

Major League Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Custom Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, baltfan said:

If Frazier wasn't as clutch as he has been, he would likely be riding the bench and Westburg or Ortiz would get more time.  However, he has been one of the best clutch hitters in baseball.  Is that because in clutch situations his outcomes are closer to what the metrics say they should be?  Is it just a SSS?  I don't think anyone knows, but so long as he keeps getting big hits you have to keep sending him out there.  It isn't like there is no precedent for a guy being excellent in clutch situations for a year.  There is no evidence that Westburg or Ortiz this year are likely to perform at Frazier's level in the clutch, so it makes sense to ride the wave.  You might argue then, just put him in for clutch at-bats.  But you run the risk that he needs the other at-bats to have these clutch results.  There definitely is no doubt that clutch hitting has a positive effect on team morale.

 

Santander is #1 and Frazier in #2 in the MLB in Clutch per Fangraphs.

Major League Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Custom Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

I understand the reality of the situation and that it's likely that nobody is going to bench a player who's OPSing .900 with men on base. 

But don't let that obscure the fact that clutch is descriptive, not predictive. The most likely outcome going forward is that Frazier is going to OPS .750 with runners on.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, sure, that's fine. The only counter I have to that is that's it's pretty likely that Westburg, Ortiz, etc are better players. Longer term much better. Certainly when you take defense into account.

I think Frazier has been a good bridge to Westburg/Ortiz, and hedge against the risk that the young guys wouldn’t perform well.   I still would have preferred not to sign him, but I can’t complain about the overall team results or his performance.   Elias has gotten what he paid for, more or less.  

As to the stretch run, I think Hyde will juggle things more or less as he has since Westburg arrived.  It’s been working.  And, it’s a long season, so the impact of everyone getting a day or two off per week shouldn’t be underestimated.   
 

[baltfan]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I understand the reality of the situation and that it's likely that nobody is going to bench a player who's OPSing .900 with men on base. 

But don't let that obscure the fact that clutch is descriptive, not predictive. The most likely outcome going forward is that Frazier is going to OPS .750 with runners on.

The sample sizes are so small one could argue we don't know what the likely outcome is.  Maybe his clutch stats are his actual level of talent, though admittedly doubtful.  In any event, let's hope that the psychic benefits for him and the fear that pitchers have given his reputation this year in these situations allow the wave to continue!

[LA2]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

If Frazier wasn't as clutch as he has been, he would likely be riding the bench and Westburg or Ortiz would get more time.  However, he has been one of the best clutch hitters in baseball.  Is that because in clutch situations his outcomes are closer to what the metrics say they should be?  Is it just a SSS?  I don't think anyone knows, but so long as he keeps getting big hits you have to keep sending him out there.  It isn't like there is no precedent for a guy being excellent in clutch situations for a year.  There is no evidence that Westburg or Ortiz this year are likely to perform at Frazier's level in the clutch, so it makes sense to ride the wave.  You might argue then, just put him in for clutch at-bats.  But you run the risk that he needs the other at-bats to have these clutch results.  There definitely is no doubt that clutch hitting has a positive effect on team morale.

 

Santander is #1 and Frazier in #2 in the MLB in Clutch per Fangraphs.

Major League Leaderboards » 2023 » Batters » Custom Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

Ryan O'Hearn doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify in that table, but the Clutch lines in his Baseball-Reference Splits are marvelous too: his OPS's range from .891 to .928 in the top five measures. Surprising also that in his sparse 13 PAs vs. LHP so far he's responded with 2 HR, a double, and only 2 K (1.141 OPS--sss needless to say). Mountcastle may have come back just in time to save his spot in the lineup.

Edited August 2, 2023 by LA2