2023 Defense Thread

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, LA2 said:

Perfect power throw. Congrats to Kyle!

If only he wasn’t such a liability out there…

[Sports Guy]

The OF defense, especially on the corners, was always going to be below average defensively until they made moves with the kids. This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone.  The writing was on the wall.

[baltfan]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I do not think catch probability takes the wall into consideration. Trust me, I agree with you that his near wall catch looked much harder than the one of him coming in, but they take positioning of the outfielder, and the distance and time in the air of the ball to determine the XBA and catch % rate. While a good metric, I do think it needs tweaking to include the wall.

I agree that you should take the wall into account but don't know how you could scientifically actually do so.  There are so many variable such as the angle toward the wall, the give of the wall, familiarity with the wall, whether you are jumping up or diving sideways, etc...  I just don't know how they would properly take that into account in determining the likelihood that a fielder would sacrifice themselves sufficiently to make the catch.  So, I guess that just leaves us with some unknown error on balls requiring some interaction between the fielder and wall. 

Definitely agree this was a much more difficult catch.  

[Tony-OH]

Just now, baltfan said:

I agree that you should take the wall into account but don't know how you could scientifically actually do so.  There are so many variable such as the angle toward the wall, the give of the wall, familiarity with the wall, whether you are jumping up or diving sideways, etc...  I just don't know how they would properly take that into account in determining the likelihood that a fielder would sacrifice themselves sufficiently to make the catch.  So, I guess that just leaves us with some unknown error on balls requiring some interaction between the fielder and wall. 

Definitely agree this was a much more difficult catch.  

They could just add some kind proximity to the wall and the amount of speed of the player at the time of the catch to add in a degree of difficulty. But since I'm not about to tell the stat nerds how to come up with this stuff, I agree, it is probably something that we'll just have to accept as a limitation of the data.

 

[baltfan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The OF defense, especially on the corners, was always going to be below average defensively until they made moves with the kids. This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone.  The writing was on the wall.

You think Stowers is a better defender than Hays? I doubt there is enough in terms of defensive metrics to make a judgment, but the eye test tells me Hays is faster and has a better arm.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltfan said:

You think Stowers is a better defender than Hays? I doubt there is enough in terms of defensive metrics to make a judgment, but the eye test tells me Hays is faster and has a better arm.   

Not sure if he has a better arm judging on last night. Maybe it’s more accurate though, although I’m not sure we know that.

I think Stowers is adequate, which is what I felt Hays was and is. But add in Cowser and i think our overall OF defense was better with Stowers and Cowser vs Hays and Santander.

This allows Hays to rest more, hoping to preserve his body better and maybe improve his defense somewhat. But Hays everyday and AS getting significant OF time was always a bad plan.

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

They could just add some kind proximity to the wall and the amount of speed of the player at the time of the catch to add in a degree of difficulty. But since I'm not about to tell the stat nerds how to come up with this stuff, I agree, it is probably something that we'll just have to accept as a limitation of the data.

 

I think the concern is the amount of error (especially unknown error) that is introduced when quantifying the unquantifiable.  If we think about catch probability as what it actually is -- the likelihood of a catch based upon time, distance needed, and direction -- that helps to prevent any confusion.  But even that has error.  There are definitely some conditions and some types of hits that are easier for an outfielder to recognize versus others.   Ball angle in relation to the fielder, the conditions, and trajectory all play a role in how difficult it is to get a proper jump and take a proper route.  

[SilverRocket]

On 5/3/2023 at 7:24 AM, Tony-OH said:

It was a 55% catch rate which is a 4 Star catch. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4f3180a3-1434-4aac-8620-20c7a3a9782c

Statcast says 100 ft and 5.3s hang time. When I look at the video and time with a stopwatch, I am seeing closer to 4.8s. My clicking my phone stopwatch is far from perfect but I don't think that explains a 0.5s difference. I wonder if there are ever glitches in timing with the video feed, considering the camera change, but certainly the commentators also didn't act like it was a 55% catch rate ball.

4.8s would be in the under 10% catch rate category, according to this: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_catch_probability

[Frobby]

Game 31, 13-10 win over the Royals

This game was marred by some questionable defense.  

 

- In the 3rd, with Witt on 1B, Pasquantino hit a ball directly to Mountcastle on one sharp hop.  Mountcastle opted not to try to start a DP and took the easy out at 1B.  Not necessarily a bad decision given Witt’s speed and Mountcastle’s noodle arm, especially with what seemed at the time to be a comfortable 8-2 lead.  But, I think a good 1B with a strong arm would have executed the DP.

- In the 4th inning, Fermin hit a ball in the RCF gap that got over Mullins’ head.  To my eye, Mullins misjudged the flight of the ball and overran it by a foot or two and was unable to adjust.   Not an easy catch at all, but in my estimation it was a play Mullins makes at least half the time.  

- In the 6th, Witt hit a ball to a similar spot.  Mullins tracked it to the wall and got his glove on it but dropped it.  He may have been distracted by the fact that he was approaching the wall, and/or by Santander who was running towards the same spot.  Similar to the previous one, it wasn’t an easy catch but it was one Mullins often makes.  He made two plays in the previous games in this series that were at least as difficult as these two.  

- In the 7th, Garcia hit a ball off the wall in LCF.  Mullins got too close to the wall and the carom ricocheted off him.  Fortunately, Stowers fielded the ricochet quickly and Garcia could not advance past 2B.

- Later in the 7th, runners on first and third, Isbel laid down a bunt that Mountcastle fielded, but Frazier was slow to cover 1B and everyone was safe.  



 

Edited May 5, 2023 by Frobby

[LA2]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Game 31, 13-10 win over the Royals

This game was marred by some questionable defense.  

- In the 2nd inning, Melendez hit a ball in the RCF gap that got over Mullins’ head.  To my eye, Mullins misjudged the flight of the ball and overran it by a foot or two and was unable to adjust.   Not an easy catch at all, but in my estimation it was a play Mullins makes at least half the time.  

- In the 3rd, with Witt on 1B, Pasquantino hit a ball directly to Mountcastle on one sharp hop.  Mountcastle opted not to try to start a DP and took the easy out at 1B.  Not necessarily a bad decision given Witt’s speed and Mountcastle’s noodle arm, especially with what seemed at the time to be a comfortable 8-2 lead.  But, I think a good 1B with a strong arm would have executed the DP.

- In the 6.6th, Witt hit a ball to a similar spot.  Mullins tracked it to the wall and got his glove on it but dropped it.  He may have been distracted by the fact that he was approaching the wall, and/or by Santander who was running towards the same spot.  Similar to the previous one, it wasn’t an easy catch but it was one Mullins often makes.  He made two plays in the previous games in this series that were at least as difficult as these two.  

- In the 7th, Garcia hit a ball off the wall in LCF.  Mullins got too close to the wall and the carom ricocheted off him.  Fortunately, Stowers fielded the ricochet quickly and Garcia could not advance past 2B.

- Later in the 7th, runners on first and third, Isbel laid down a bunt that Mountcastle fielded, but Frazier was slow to cover 1B and everyone was safe.  



 

Thank you so much for these. I find these descriptions all the more valuable because these are often the types of plays (or failures to become plays) that one can't find in the mlb.com highlights or game summaries.

Edited May 5, 2023 by LA2
Typo

[Frobby]

Just now, LA2 said:

Thank you so much for these. I find these descriptions all the more valuable because these are often the types of plays (or failures to become plays) that one can't find in the mlb.oom highlights or game summaries.

I like doing them because they remind me just how important and decisive defense often is.  

[Frobby]

Just following up, Statcast rated this non-catch by Mullins last night on Fermin’s triple a 60% catch probability.  
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2a076032-4422-4910-947a-87bc40285ad7

This double by Witt that Mullins got a glove on but didn’t catch, they rated a 70% probability: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=544c9e30-f0fb-4c25-b159-e4ed04b66064

And this one between Mullins and Stowers was rated a 50% probability for Mullins.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a68d7883-a883-48f7-b1b0-f4fcb0c837f0

 

[Aristotelian]

Yikes, not a great day for Mullins out there. 2nd play looked like a borderline error, he actually overran it a little bit. Last one looked harder than 50%. He got a good jump and wasn't even close to it.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yikes, not a great day for Mullins out there. 2nd play looked like a borderline error, he actually overran it a little bit. Last one looked harder than 50%. He got a good jump and wasn't even close to it.

I agree that the last one didn’t seem like 50% to me.  My big problem on that play was that he let the ball ricochet off his leg and get away from him.  Luckily Stowers was there and prevented the runner from attempting a triple.  

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just following up, Statcast rated this non-catch by Mullins last night on Fermin’s triple a 60% catch probability.  
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2a076032-4422-4910-947a-87bc40285ad7

This double by Witt that Mullins got a glove on but didn’t catch, they rated a 70% probability: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=544c9e30-f0fb-4c25-b159-e4ed04b66064

And this one between Mullins and Stowers was rated a 50% probability for Mullins.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a68d7883-a883-48f7-b1b0-f4fcb0c837f0

 

If Mountcastle was a better 1Bman, he would have caught all of those balls!