Anthony Santander 2023

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m kind of distracting from your main point here, but it’s highly doubtful that Santander would earn $15 mm+ next year.   He’s making $7.4 mm now, and a typical Arb 4 raise is in the neighborhood of 55-60%.   Maybe Santander gets slightly more than that for having a good year.  I doubt he exceeds $13 mm.  

My AI simulator estimates that Santander will get around $11 Million next season from arbitration. (Statistical input at this point of the season was if Santander had a .850 OPS and a 2 WAR).

I would say $12 Million seems more like a safe reasonable number.

[G54377]

If Santander ends the season with say 265 AVG/32 HR/95 RBI, I'm sure there is a team out there that'd want that bat in their lineup on a one year 12 million deal in a trade.

[jdwilde1]

Not bad for a Rule V pick up.  Got to give Danny Duq credit for that one.

[sportsfan8703]

It’s going to be tough to see Elias have to trade him this offseason, but he’s a FA after next season, and Cowser and Kjerstad need a spot. I don’t see any extension that makes sense with two guys ready. Elias has really built a 26 man roster where no one guy is so important to the team outside of Adley. Even Gunnar has guys that can step in. 

I don’t see Elias trying to force a Arraez-Lopez type trade. Instead I see him getting the best prospect package in return. 

[Sports Guy]

What the Os do at first/DH/COF next year is interesting.

Entering the 2024 season, you have Hays, Santander, OHearn, Mountcastle, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad all here, ready to be here or soon to be here.

As of now, Mayo has flashed some at AAA but overall, you don’t expect him to start the year in the majors. He’s probably more of a mid season call up, similar to Holliday.

OHearn and Mountcastle form a perfect platoon and they are cheap but can they continue to be reliable?

Hays has, predictably, fallen off from where he was. He’s a good player but is he a reliable everyday guy?

IMO, your starting OD OF in 2024 is Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad. I don’t think they trade Mullins yet and I don’t see them extending him. They will just go year to year with him.

But since they are lefties, Hays gives them a good 4th option who will likely play a good amount. 

Where does that leave Santander? Well, you could elect to keep him over Hays and trade Hays. Santander is cheaper and I think it’s a toss up (as of today) who fetches more in trade. Santander provides you more offense and since he would primarily be your DH, that may be the preference.

Of course, they could elect to move Cowser or Kjerstad for a starter but if I had to guess, they will look to trade out of the depth that isn’t in the majors or ready to be in the majors for a starter, if that is the route they go.

They also could elect to make Santander the first baseman and get rid of both OHearn and Mounty but I tend to think the cost will make that an attractive option unless they struggle down the stretch or they deem they don’t like them defensively.  There is also the issue of roster space. How many of these guys will they be able to carry next year?

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What the Os do at first/DH/COF next year is interesting.

Entering the 2024 season, you have Hays, Santander, OHearn, Mountcastle, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad all here, ready to be here or soon to be here.

As of now, Mayo has flashed some at AAA but overall, you don’t expect him to start the year in the majors. He’s probably more of a mid season call up, similar to Holliday.

OHearn and Mountcastle form a perfect platoon and they are cheap but can they continue to be reliable?

Hays has, predictably, fallen off from where he was. He’s a good player but is he a reliable everyday guy?

IMO, your starting OD OF in 2024 is Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad. I don’t think they trade Mullins yet and I don’t see them extending him. They will just go year to year with him.

But since they are lefties, Hays gives them a good 4th option who will likely play a good amount. 

Where does that leave Santander? Well, you could elect to keep him over Hays and trade Hays. Santander is cheaper and I think it’s a toss up (as of today) who fetches more in trade. Santander provides you more offense and since he would primarily be your DH, that may be the preference.

Of course, they could elect to move Cowser or Kjerstad for a starter but if I had to guess, they will look to trade out of the depth that isn’t in the majors or ready to be in the majors for a starter, if that is the route they go.

They also could elect to make Santander the first baseman and get rid of both OHearn and Mounty but I tend to think the cost will make that an attractive option unless they struggle down the stretch or they deem they don’t like them defensively.  There is also the issue of roster space. How many of these guys will they be able to carry next year?

Of Mounty, Hays, and Santander, I would keep Santander. He is the most flexible and stays healthy. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Of Mounty, Hays, and Santander, I would keep Santander. He is the most flexible and stays healthy. 

Well, he has been healthy the last 2 seasons but he wasn’t durable before that.

The last 2 seasons are probably more relevant at this point but I wouldn’t label him as durable quite yet. He’s on his way for sure though.

I have no issue keeping him. Some of this also depends on the payroll discussion and what they plan on doing with the pitching.

[CaptainRedbeard]

What they do next year is completely reliant on how they view Kjerstad. Is he Adley/Gunnar/Cowser level where he only needs the ~200 PA at AAA like the other MiL stops? Or is he Westburg/Stowers/(maybe Ortiz?) where they somewhat inexplicably think he will benefit from much longer in AAA?

As a prospect he is much more in the first group than the second. However, while both him and Ortiz have great AAA numbers they may not be happy with their chase rates and think they could use more time working on that specifically? Hard to know since everything else looks nearly perfect.

We won’t really know until we see whether Kjerstad is called up in September, although with the current roster they could easily not have space for him now and still think he’s worth starting OD 2024. On the other hand, they could also easily view Santander/O’Hearn to Kjerstad as Frazier to Westburg this past offseason. Stacking depth with vets on 1-yr deals and letting playing time work itself out vs. clearing out space for the prospect. I wouldn’t really be surprised by any outcome. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

What they do next year is completely reliant on how they view Kjerstad. Is he Adley/Gunnar/Cowser level where he only needs the ~200 PA at AAA like the other MiL stops? Or is he Westburg/Stowers/(maybe Ortiz?) where they somewhat inexplicably think he will benefit from much longer in AAA?

As a prospect he is much more in the first group than the second. However, while both him and Ortiz have great AAA numbers they may not be happy with their chase rates and think they could use more time working on that specifically? Hard to know since everything else looks nearly perfect.

We won’t really know until we see whether Kjerstad is called up in September, although with the current roster they could easily not have space for him now and still think he’s worth starting OD 2024. On the other hand, they could also easily view Santander/O’Hearn to Kjerstad as Frazier to Westburg this past offseason. Stacking depth with vets on 1-yr deals and letting playing time work itself out vs. clearing out space for the prospect. I wouldn’t really be surprised by any outcome. 

With the limited amount of spots you can use for Sept call ups, Kjerstad may not get the call so he can keep getting at bats.

We know, barring any setback, that Means is getting a spot. 

That would give the team the max allowed 14 pitchers and they can call up one more player. Maybe Kjerstad is that guy. My guess is that they go the third catcher route or maybe they bring up Ortiz.

Of course, you can ask do they need 14 pitchers? Could they go 13 pitchers and 15 hitters? If they do that, Kjerstad’s chances improve.

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s going to be tough to see Elias have to trade him this offseason, but he’s a FA after next season, and Cowser and Kjerstad need a spot. I don’t see any extension that makes sense with two guys ready. Elias has really built a 26 man roster where no one guy is so important to the team outside of Adley. Even Gunnar has guys that can step in. 

I don’t see Elias trying to force a Arraez-Lopez type trade. Instead I see him getting the best prospect package in return. 

RZNJ  and I  have been having this discussion.   RZ thinks Elias will keep Santander in 2024 and offer him a Quality Offer after the season which will net the O's a draft choice in the 30s.   I think this off season Elias will seek and probably find a package of minor leaguers in return for Santander that is too good to pass up.

Elias likes to break in rookies one at a time into the major league lineup.   Keeping enough established players to keep winning while getting the rookies through their adjustment periods.  First Adley, then Gunnar, now Westburg.    With Westburg looking pretty good Elias can go into next spring with  Mountcastle/OHearn, Westburg, Gunnar and Urias in the infield.   Ortiz struggles if he has them will be less noticeable as a UIF.     Mullins and Hays in the outfield leaves Kjerstad and  Cowser to fight it out in RF.    Actually Westburg's progress makes it easier to trade Santander IMO.

[sportsfan8703]

What is more valuable,

Santander here for 2024 and the comp pick when he leaves.

Or...

A package of minor leaguers.

It's close because I think he means more to us than another team with what he brings.  So I don't know if the return would be worth more than just keeping him, the value he gives us next season, and the comp pick.  The switch hitting ability is really nice.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What is more valuable,

Santander here for 2024 and the comp pick when he leaves.

Or...

A package of minor leaguers.

It's close because I think he means more to us than another team with what he brings.  So I don't know if the return would be worth more than just keeping him, the value he gives us next season, and the comp pick.  The switch hitting ability is really nice.  

Why does he mean more to us than any other team?  In fact, with our positional talent, I think it’s the complete opposite.

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

With the limited amount of spots you can use for Sept call ups, Kjerstad may not get the call so he can keep getting at bats.

We know, barring any setback, that Means is getting a spot. 

That would give the team the max allowed 14 pitchers and they can call up one more player. Maybe Kjerstad is that guy. My guess is that they go the third catcher route or maybe they bring up Ortiz.

Of course, you can ask do they need 14 pitchers? Could they go 13 pitchers and 15 hitters? If they do that, Kjerstad’s chances improve.

 

I have got to think they will want 14 pitchers and maybe go with a 6 man rotation depending on who is healthy in Sept.

[TopGunnar]

I hope Santander is an Oriole for a long time. He’s a legitimate hitter and very underrated throughout baseball. I mean, he’s the every day 3/4 hitter on the best team in the AL. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What the Os do at first/DH/COF next year is interesting.

Entering the 2024 season, you have Hays, Santander, OHearn, Mountcastle, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad all here, ready to be here or soon to be here.

As of now, Mayo has flashed some at AAA but overall, you don’t expect him to start the year in the majors. He’s probably more of a mid season call up, similar to Holliday.

OHearn and Mountcastle form a perfect platoon and they are cheap but can they continue to be reliable?

Hays has, predictably, fallen off from where he was. He’s a good player but is he a reliable everyday guy?

IMO, your starting OD OF in 2024 is Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad. I don’t think they trade Mullins yet and I don’t see them extending him. They will just go year to year with him.

But since they are lefties, Hays gives them a good 4th option who will likely play a good amount. 

Where does that leave Santander? Well, you could elect to keep him over Hays and trade Hays. Santander is cheaper and I think it’s a toss up (as of today) who fetches more in trade. Santander provides you more offense and since he would primarily be your DH, that may be the preference.

Of course, they could elect to move Cowser or Kjerstad for a starter but if I had to guess, they will look to trade out of the depth that isn’t in the majors or ready to be in the majors for a starter, if that is the route they go.

They also could elect to make Santander the first baseman and get rid of both OHearn and Mounty but I tend to think the cost will make that an attractive option unless they struggle down the stretch or they deem they don’t like them defensively.  There is also the issue of roster space. How many of these guys will they be able to carry next year?

I think its very unlikely that All Star Hays becomes a 4th outfielder in 2024.

Santander is cheaper than who? Hays?  Santander is more expensive than Hays is 2024.