Anthony Santander 2023

[bpilktree]

59 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Santander is a better hitter who is trending in the right direction career performance wise. Mountcastle is going the wrong way the last couple of years. He just doesn’t have the plate discipline to hit in the middle of the order on a contender. In big spots you just walk whoever is in front of him and get him out consistently by getting him to chase. Most of the time he will get himself out.

He hit .240s each of the last two years and hit .205 through April.  A hot month doesn’t show you are trending anywhere it just means you are hot right now.  Mateo April didn’t all the sudden make him trending better.  
 

This season Mountcastle with runners in scoring position .230 aveage .830 OpS.  Santander .238 .851 Ops  They are very similar with runners in scoring position.  There is little difference in the two over last 2+ years and not much difference with runners in scoring position this year.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

He hit .240s each of the last two years and hit .205 through April.  A hot month doesn’t show you are trending anywhere it just means you are hot right now.  Mateo April didn’t all the sudden make him trending better.  
 

This season Mountcastle with runners in scoring position .230 aveage .830 OpS.  Santander .238 .851 Ops  They are very similar with runners in scoring position.  There is little difference in the two over last 2+ years and not much difference with runners in scoring position this year.  

Why is 2+ years the timeframe rather than 1+? By any chance is it because you want to include Mountcastle's best year? Santander has performed better recently, and has steadily increased his walk rate and OBP. Mountcastle's best year was still only 114 OPS+ relative to the league, whereas Mountcastle has a 119 and 135 to his name, plus working on 137 vs 94 currently. Mountcastle also strikes out more.  You are right that the difference between the two is not as extreme as you might think from the chatter on the boards, but I think it's fair to say Santander has a significantly better resume. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, bpilktree said:

He hit .240s each of the last two years and hit .205 through April.  A hot month doesn’t show you are trending anywhere it just means you are hot right now.  Mateo April didn’t all the sudden make him trending better.  
 

This season Mountcastle with runners in scoring position .230 aveage .830 OpS.  Santander .238 .851 Ops  They are very similar with runners in scoring position.  There is little difference in the two over last 2+ years and not much difference with runners in scoring position this year.  

Who would you say had the better season last year? Who would you say is having the better season this year?

[Frobby]

I do think Santander and Mountcastle have been pretty similar hitters over the last couple of years, and there may be some recency bias here based on the fact that Sanatander was hot in May.   But in the 2021-23 timeframe offered by @bpilktree, Santander's 113 OPS is solidly better than Mouncastle's 108, and the trend line is better.  Also, Santander has been worth 3.3 rWAR, 3.9 fWAR in that timeframe, while Mouncastle has been worth 2.6 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR.   So, Santander has been substantially more valuable (ignoring salary considerations for the moment).

I think the bigger concern right now is that Mountcastle has put up a really terrible OBP for two months in a row.   He still has four months to right the ship.   He has been a torrid hitter in June in his career -- .312/.364/.624.  The weather is heating up and some of those high-xBA batted balls that have been outs should start to carry and turn into extra base hits.  

So, we will see if Mountcastle can get into a groove and improve his numbers.  Past history suggests that he can, but he has to go out and do it.   Longer term, though, we may need to consider whether a player who posts a sub-.300 OBP 4 months out of every 6 (as he did last year) is worth keeping around because he's hot the other 2 months.  It's been a bit that way for Santander, too, but a bit less extreme.  

I think the reason people are hard on Mountcastle is because we can see he is quite talented, but he's been completely unable to curb his bad habit of swinging at pitches out of the zone, and in fact, has been worse than ever this year (44.7 O-swing%).   Santander isn't great at it either (39.1% this year), but you sense he's making an effort.  Mountcastle doesn't seem to care.

[Frobby]

Feels like this thread is bump-worthy, as Santander is back up to .271/.334/.502 and also has played some really good defense of late.  Five homers in his last six games, including the last three in a row.  

[Just Regular]

Every now and then I have moments of wondering is he approaching qualifying offer worthiness.

In the 2025 draft, Elias' dream scenario is picking 30th, 31st, 32nd and 33rd thanks to a Santander comp pick and going 1-2 in the 2024 Rookie of the Year race with Cowser/Kjerstad.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Just Regular said:

Every now and then I have moments of wondering is he approaching qualifying offer worthiness.

In the 2025 draft, Elias' dream scenario is picking 30th, 31st, 32nd and 33rd thanks to a Santander comp pick and going 1-2 in the 2024 Rookie of the Year race with Cowser/Kjerstad.

Pretty sure a team can't get two ROY picks in the same year.

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure a team can't get two ROY picks in the same year.

Ah, okay.    I know I don't have fluency yet with those details.    I believe the Clubs only got 1 out of 4 possibles for this year's draft as Adley and the Atlanta guys missed for various reasons.

The draft just a couple weeks out, I'm learning the Julio pick is 29 overall as Mets/Dodgers got $$$ penalized out of their natural Round 1 position.

[Baltimorecuse]

On 6/26/2023 at 7:26 PM, Frobby said:

Feels like this thread is bump-worthy, as Santander is back up to .271/.334/.502 and also has played some really good defense of late.  Five homers in his last six games, including the last three in a row.  

I was just looking at Santander's mid-season numbers.  He's living up to every hope I had.  He's on a 100 RBI pace, and a tick under .500 slugging.  His fielding is underrated.  

I think he's way underrated.

[Sanfran327]

27 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I was just looking at Santander's mid-season numbers.  He's living up to every hope I had.  He's on a 100 RBI pace, and a tick under .500 slugging.  His fielding is underrated.  

I think he's way underrated.

Agree. I'd hate to move him. If it comes down to a roster crunch situation, I'd rather outright release Hicks for nothing than trade Santander for something that might not move the needle that much. I don't think he's the type of player that goes out in a package for a deadline arm, but I could be wrong. 

[The B&G]

16 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I was just looking at Santander's mid-season numbers.  He's living up to every hope I had.  He's on a 100 RBI pace, and a tick under .500 slugging.  His fielding is underrated.  

I think he's way underrated.

Yep he's having a really nice season, especially when you factor in his slow start. From an outsider's view, it also seems like he's more of a veteran leader in the clubhouse this year. In general he seems a lot more comfortable, he no longer uses the interpreter during post game interviews and seems to give honest, well thought out answers; I've also seen multiple instances in the last week or two when he's joking around and having a good time 1 on 1 with the younger guys (Adley and Gunnar). When asked in his post game interview yesterday about how much fun he's having, his response was great and was a good indication of how comfortable he is as a veteran leader on the team. 

 

His OBP improvement over the last few years is very impressive; .286 in 2021 to .342 in 1H of 2023. Although slugging improvement shouldn't be ignored either, .433 in 2021 to .498 in 1H of 2023. Hope he keeps it up!

[G54377]

If we keep him i get it and I'll hope for a continued monster season. He does seems like a potential obvious move to make for Elias given the roster crunch and his 1 1/2 remaining years left. We aren't extending him, and he doesn't really have the best track record of health or consistency. Sure maybe he's just a late bloomer like Nelson Cruz but Mullins/Hays/Cowser/Hicks is still a solid outfield, and it seems like we aren't giving up on Mountcastle at 1B. That with Ohearn still there and Kjerstad in the wings. We could potentially trade AS alone or with lower level prospects and get back the pitching we'd want. That without giving up ANY of our real prospects until the offseason. A 3 team trade could really behoove us. Just a thought anyway, but loving what he's been doing.

[Baltimorecuse]

11 minutes ago, G54377 said:

If we keep him i get it and I'll hope for a continued monster season. He does seems like a potential obvious move to make for Elias given the roster crunch and his 1 1/2 remaining years left. We aren't extending him, and he doesn't really have the best track record of health or consistency. Sure maybe he's just a late bloomer like Nelson Cruz but Mullins/Hays/Cowser/Hicks is still a solid outfield, and it seems like we aren't giving up on Mountcastle at 1B. That with Ohearn still there and Kjerstad in the wings. We could potentially trade AS alone or with lower level prospects and get back the pitching we'd want. That without giving up ANY of our real prospects until the offseason. A 3 team trade could really behoove us. Just a thought anyway, but loving what he's been doing.

Cowser has a LOT TO PROVE.  AS is doing it.  I wish I had a dime for every POTENTIAL star who never panned out.  

All the stars that ever were

Are parking cars and pumping gas

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Baltimorecuse

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I was just looking at Santander's mid-season numbers.  He's living up to every hope I had.  He's on a 100 RBI pace, and a tick under .500 slugging.  His fielding is underrated.  

I think he's way underrated.

He’s not on a 100 RBI pace though.   The O’s hss as be played 55% of their season and he’s at 50 RBI.   He’s on about a 91 RBI pace.  

[G54377]

10 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Cowser has a LOT TO PROVE.  AS is doing it.  I wish I had a dime for every POTENTIAL star who never panned out.  

All the stars that ever were

Are parking cars and pumping gas

 

 

No doubt, but Santander could also flame out in the second half or next year. We roll the dice either way. So far he has alternated good and bad months. He had a 642 OPS in April and a 702 OPS in June. He's also battled injures just about every year up until last, IIRC. People may be overrating our prospects, but they may also be overrating Santander.