Gunnar Henderson 2023

[banks703]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, let me say that I value your opinions on Holliday’s defense, since you’ve seen him and our other SS prospects a lot.  

That said, I certainly think it’s possible for a 19-year old to build arm strength, it’s just a matter of degree.   It was pretty clear after a year that Mountcastle didn’t have the arm for SS, and that nothing he could do would change that.  But I don’t have the sense that Holliday’s situation is that dire.   His arm is rated as decent by scouts, and I’d think he can improve it.  I’m not saying he’ll ever be our SS, but that’s more a function of who else we have at that spot than a comment on his defensive limitations.   

Finally, can you point me to where Holliday has said he grew up a 2B and is most comfortable there?   I’ve never heard that before.

 

 

I appreciate the trust in what I’ve seen and posted. I think some of our posters get offended because I am not blindly overlooking a piece of his game that isn’t great or they think that I’m somehow rooting against him. Not the case at all.  He’s a great prospect no matter where he ends up in the field because of his bat. 

There’s no doubt that he can and will add some arm strength but it’s not going to be enough to make the difference that will grade him better than below average. I would love to be wrong about that but I just don’t see it.

As a high schooler his max throwing velo was 82 mph. As a 17, 18 year old kid we can expect to see a couple of mph added to his throws so let’s say that he’ll increases his max throwing velo to 85 mph. If we look at the average throwing velo of major league SS, his max throwing velo (at 85 mph) would slot him in as the 27th strongest thrower in MLB. Not awful, right?

Let’s then look at the difference between max velo throws and average velo throws. Starting from the top of the statcast data we see:

Elly De la Cruz -

Max of 99.8 mph

Avg of 95.8 mph

4 mph difference.

Masyn Wynn -

Max of 98.4 mph

Avg of 94.4 mph 

4 mph difference.

Gunnar

Max of 95.8 mph

Avg of 89.2 mph

6.6 mph difference.

If we go down the list almost every MLB SS has an AVG of about 4 mph lower than their Max throws.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?type=player&year=2023&minThrows=50&pos=arm_ss&team=&sortColumn=arm_ss&sortDirection=desc

So if Holliday adds three mph to his max velo, we can reasonably expect an average throwing velo of about 81 mph. At 81 mph he would rank 47th in the league for throwing velo as a SS.

Sure, there are guys that have played SS for 10 plus years that have similar velos (Bogaerts, Lindor, Swanson) but I would not consider any of those guys as good defensive shortstops. I’m certainly not moving Gunnar off of short for those guys if money/contracts are not a factor.

It isn’t just the arm that scares me with him as a ML shortstop. It’s the stiffness in his hips and the way that he sometimes gets caught in between hops. The hops thing will improve but he’s not going to complete plays that take him into the hole (arm strength) and he doesn’t look particularly strong coming across the bag on DPs but he will no doubt improve there. There are just things that I see that, to me, profile better as a 2B than a SS. I’ll continue to describe him as a guy who is not going to kill you at SS but he’s just not ever going to be your best defensive option there and for a team that has clearly prioritized defense up the middle, I just don’t see them playing the weaker defender there if they have guys like Gunnar, Joey, Jorge and even JW in the system. 

Jackson Holliday may be the most gifted hitter that the O’s have ever had in their system. I am confidently stating that he’s the best hitting prospect that I’ve ever seen, which includes Manny, Soto, Harper, etc. all of the guys that have come through the minors the last 12ish years. I just don’t feel that he’s going to be a good defensive shortstop. Maybe the O’s feel different. I will happily eat crow if he proves me wrong. It’s only a good thing if he sticks there. 

I will try to find the quote when I have some time in front of the computer. Typing all of this out on my phone has been some kind of chore with the ghost links. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by banks703

[banks703]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:55 PM, Frobby said:

Finally, can you point me to where Holliday has said he grew up a 2B and is most comfortable there?   I’ve never heard that before.

 

 

I looked a little bit last night for the quote but haven't been able to find it so I have no choice but to strike it from the record. I don't make a habit of brandishing misinformation and do subscribe to if we can't cite our source then it's not credible info so I'm prepared for the shellacking that'll surely come from some on the board. I'll eventually come across it again when I am not looking for it and I'll post it back here but for now, I have to remove the data point from my opinion and argument on where he'll end up playing once promoted.

[Rbiggs2525]

Funny Boston media still thinks Casas should be ROY. He does 0 defensively and on the bases.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Funny Boston media still thinks Casas should be ROY. He does 0 defensively and on the bases.

His OpS is much higher but he’s below a 2 WAR. Henderson has just been a far more valuable player.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Funny Boston media still thinks Casas should be ROY. He does 0 defensively and on the bases.

Boston media would think that.  I bet that Shaughnessy guy is leading the charge. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Boston media would think that.  I bet that Shaughnessy guy is leading the charge. 

He's always been a hack.

 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

He's always been a hack.

 

He's just annoying looking.  Fitting that a guy with a punchable face would cover a team that's historically been filled with players that have punchable faces.

[Babkins]

I was poking around on SoSH the other day, and one poster asked, “Aside from the defense, what makes Gunnar so much more valuable than Casas?” Another poster responded that that would be like asking, “Aside from the offense, what makes Judge so much more valuable than Verdugo?”

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Babkins said:

I was poking around on SoSH the other day, and one poster asked, “Aside from the defense, what makes Gunnar so much more valuable than Casas?” Another poster responded that that would be like asking, “Aside from the offense, what makes Judge so much more valuable than Verdugo?”

I haven't been over there in awhile, but it used to be a collection of wicked pissah dunderheads who didn't really know much about baseball but were experts in whining about it.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's just annoying looking.  Fitting that a guy with a punchable face would cover a team that's historically been filled with players that have punchable faces.

Shaughnessy looks like a leprechaun on meth. 

[Aristotelian]

I honestly didn't realize Casas has been doing so well. A

[Moose Milligan]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I honestly didn't realize Casas has been doing so well. A

Isn't it awesome when the Sox are in 4th place and you aren't aware of their latest darlings?

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Isn't it awesome when the Sox are in 4th place and you aren't aware of their latest darlings?

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, banks703 said:

I looked a little bit last night for the quote but haven't been able to find it so I have no choice but to strike it from the record. I don't make a habit of brandishing misinformation and do subscribe to if we can't cite our source then it's not credible info so I'm prepared for the shellacking that'll surely come from some on the board. I'll eventually come across it again when I am not looking for it and I'll post it back here but for now, I have to remove the data point from my opinion and argument on where he'll end up playing once promoted.

Thanks.  I wasn’t looking for a “gotcha.”  I was just curious whether he’d said that because I didn’t remember having seen it.  Doesn’t mean he hadn’t said it.  

[banks703]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.  I wasn’t looking for a “gotcha.”  I was just curious whether he’d said that because I didn’t remember having seen it.  Doesn’t mean he hadn’t said it.  

I didn't take it as a "gotcha" but it's fair to ask for a source. I might've done the same thing.