For The Times they are a'Changin

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, owknows said:

The fact that that the Brewers and the Rays have been "doing this for years" really doesn't mitigate the fact that they're doing this.

As for the Pirates being "bad and cheap" you may recall that they have the best record in the National League.

Not only are Baltimore, Tampa, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee among the lowest payrolls in baseball.

They are also among the smallest markets.

They are also among the top farm systems.

But I'm sure it's all a mildly interesting statistical blip.

In my opinion, it’s a mildly interesting statistical blip for now, because baseball seasons aren’t 21 games long, they’re 162 games.  If these four teams, or even 3 of the 4, are atop the standings when the year ends, it will be a huge topic of conversation.   For now, it’s a mildly interesting statistical blip that may mean sonething or may not.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, geschinger said:

Sure it is. If they didn't tank the farm system would be nowhere near what it is now and a great farm system is the catalyst to being in a position to contend.  The Orioles would not / could not have made anywhere near the progress they've made with the significantly fewer draft resources they would have had to work with without tanking. 

Now that they are building out an international presence that is starting to show some promise in the future having fewer draft resources available may be less of an issue for a talent pipeline but that didn't exist at the time.  Tanking is the reason the organization is in a position to contend.   

No it’s not. You don’t need to tank to contend. You don’t need to draft high to build a farm system.

You get 2 advantages when you tank..a high pick and a higher draft pool, most of which is used on that higher pick.

The Orioles aren’t winning because of Holliday or Kjerstad or Cowser or any of the drafts from 2020-2022.

Adley is obviously a huge help but he was acquired when they weren’t actually tanking.

I was all for the tanking for a few years.  Had they had the correct mindset and not just looking for the most profit, they make the playoffs last year.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Sports Guy

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, it’s a mildly interesting statistical blip for now, because baseball seasons aren’t 21 games long, they’re 162 games.  If these four teams, or even 3 of the 4, are atop the standings when the year ends, it will be a huge topic of conversation.   For now, it’s a mildly interesting statistical blip that may mean sonething or may not.  

Of course it's early. And of course other things factor into current W-L records. And of course a lot could change. And likely will.

But it is an interesting development. And one which we've seen manifest in some measure before with Tampa.. and to some extent Oakland and KC. Remains to be seen if it represents a trend. But part of the fun of a discussion board is trying to predict and anticipate these trends.

[geschinger]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not. You don’t need to talk to contend. You don’t need to draft high to build a farm system.

You get 2 advantages when you tank..a high pick and a higher draft pool, most of which is used on that higher pick.

The Orioles aren’t winning because of Holliday or Kjerstad or Cowser or any of the drafts from 2020-2022.

Adley is obviously a huge help but he was acquired when they weren’t actually tanking.

I was all for the tanking for a few years.  Had they had the correct mindset and not just looking for the most profit, they make the playoffs last year.

How do you build a farm system with no international presence (which barely existed and was only starting to be built out) no valuable MLB chips to trade for prospects without the draft resources that come with being at the top of the draft?  You certainly aren't going from where they were at in 2018 to where they are at now without that.

The Orioles are beating up on some bad teams right now which is great, but I don't see the MLB roster as a legitimate WS contender as is.  It's the talent pipeline that has them in position to plug younger/better players in soon and/or be used to acquire others that gets them to that point and that is the reason I'm bullish on their chances to contend over the next few years.  And that absolutely does not exist sans tanking. 

 

 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not. You don’t need to talk to contend. You don’t need to draft high to build a farm system.

You get 2 advantages when you tank..a high pick and a higher draft pool, most of which is used on that higher pick.

The Orioles aren’t winning because of Holliday or Kjerstad or Cowser or any of the drafts from 2020-2022.

Adley is obviously a huge help but he was acquired when they weren’t actually tanking.

I was all for the tanking for a few years.  Had they had the correct mindset and not just looking for the most profit, they make the playoffs last year.

I agree with most of what you say. It was very painful, but I hope purposeful beyond pocketing profits.

But the benefit to it is now we have ALL of these young positional player assets to supplement holes in our roster and be used to help us acquire the kind of pitching required for postseason success.

I don’t see any trend really because baseball is a long season and talent will win out most of the time. I hope nobody believes that the Pirates will finish higher than the Padres, Mets, and Braves. This most likely is an early season statistical abnormality that will be corrected over time.

I for one am not in any way advocating for the Orioles to remain with a tank/rebuild/cheap approach. That means great players walk consistently and we will never win anything by doing that. - I’m just a believer that in the end talent will win out. Now how you acquire that talent leaves room for debate.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

How do you build a farm system with no international presence (which barely existed and was only starting to be built out) no valuable MLB chips to trade for prospects without the draft resources that come with being at the top of the draft?  You certainly aren't going from where they were at in 2018 to where they are at now without that.

The Orioles are beating up on some bad teams right now which is great, but I don't see the MLB roster as a legitimate WS contender as is.  It's the talent pipeline that has them in position to plug younger/better players in soon and/or be used to acquire others that gets them to that point and that is the reason I'm bullish on their chances to contend over the next few years.  And that absolutely does not exist sans tanking. 

 

 

Arguably the best first round pick from the 2021 draft was Bobby Miller..taken 29th.

It’s a complete lie that you have to draft high to have a good farm system. It is proven every year to be false.  There is no argument that suggests otherwise.

It May be “more challenging” but plenty of teams do it year in and year out. 
 

The Orioles got a few players from tanking that they would not have had if they didn’t tank. That’s it. You aren’t winning because of a few players and it’s entirely possible that you end up with a better player later in the draft anyway. (I’m guessing we would all (or most of us) trade Cowser for Miller).

And btw, the intl stuff is ramped up. You didn’t need to tank for a few extra years for that. 
 

Again, you want to jump start things and tank for a few years, that’s fine. Beyond that, it’s nothing more than a money grab wrapped up in a nice little package to make it seem like you are doing it “for the good of the team”.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with most of what you say. It was very painful, but I hope purposeful beyond pocketing profits.

But the benefit to it is now we have ALL of these young positional player assets to supplement holes in our roster and be used to help us acquire the kind of pitching required for postseason success.

I don’t see any trend really because baseball is a long season and talent will win out most of the time. I hope nobody believes that the Pirates will finish higher than the Padres, Mets, and Braves. This most likely is an early season statistical abnormality that will be corrected over time.

I for one am not in any way advocating for the Orioles to remain with a tank/rebuild/cheap approach. That means great players walk consistently and we will never win anything by doing that. - I’m just a believer that in the end talent will win out. Now how you acquire that talent leaves room for debate.

Of course you need talent…but you don’t have to tank for 2-3 years longer than needed to do it. 

[Camden_yardbird]

11 hours ago, owknows said:

Some interesting observations for this admittedly young 2023 season...

Looking at the top 4 teams by record in all of Baseball..

2 are from the AL and 2 from the NL....

All are in the bottom half of the league in team payroll.

3 of them are in the bottom 4 teams in payroll in all of baseball.

Pittsburgh (27th of 30 teams in payroll) is 16-7

Milwaukee (20th of 30 teams in payroll) is 15-7

Tampa Bay (28th of 30 teams in payroll) is 19-3

And your Baltimore Orioles (29th of 30 teams in payroll) are 14-7

Since I met my (now) wife 20 years ago I have been an Orioles/Pirates fan, and I dont have to tell you how difficult that has been.  The start of this season has been amazing but now both franchises need owners who will invest in the team long term and make for sustained success.

[Frobby]

Every case is different.  In the Orioles’ case, Elias inherited a team that had just won 47 games, had almost no international presence, a bottom third farm system (you can debate just how far down the bottom third it was), and very little talent on the major league roster.   That team wasn’t going to contend any time soon.  I honestly don’t think Elias had any other realistic option but to play his hand the way he did.   A 65-70 win team with some decent MiL talent has options as to how to try to get to contention.  The Orioles didn’t, IMO.

Now, they have options.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Every case is different.  In the Orioles’ case, Elias inherited a team that had just won 47 games, had almost no international presence, a bottom third farm system (you can debate just how far down the bottom third it was), and very little talent on the major league roster.   That team wasn’t going to contend any time soon.  I honestly don’t think Elias had any other realistic option but to play his hand the way he did.   A 65-70 win team with some decent MiL talent has options as to how to try to get to contention.  The Orioles didn’t, IMO.

Now, they have options.  

They absolutely could have “gone for it” in 2022. The rebuild was completed by then. 

They could have started to acquire ML pieces prior to 2021 to help them short and long term.

2022 was a completely unplanned good season. Now, the good news is that they did finish over 500, which was my personal timeline on what they should have done. But that wasn’t the plan and they certainly didn’t decide to capitalize on that this offseason which they should have.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

They absolutely could have “gone for it” in 2022. The rebuild was completed by then. 

They could have started to acquire ML pieces prior to 2021 to help them short and long term.

2022 was a completely unplanned good season. Now, the good news is that they did finish over 500, which was my personal timeline on what they should have done. But that wasn’t the plan and they certainly didn’t decide to capitalize on that this offseason which they should have.

 

Yeah, I’m not really debating you here.  The O’s could have done more in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 offseasons.  But they weren’t “tanking” in those offseasons, IMO.   I expected the ‘22 team to do much better than the 2019-21 teams did.  I think Elias did too, and said so.   I don’t think he expected them to improve by 31 games; that was serendipitous. I certainly didn’t expect it.  I can (and do) disagree with him being less aggressive than I’d like the last two offseasons, and still feel that he’s done a very good job overall.  I’m certainly enjoying how 2023 has played out in the early going, and looking forward to seeing how the rest of the year plays out.  

[Sports Guy]

Outside of Holliday, which of our top prospects were acquired directly from tanking?

A lot of people felt Cowser and Kjerstad could have gone closer to the 10. Maybe, maybe not. But it’s certainly possible you didn’t have to “tank” to get them and you certainly may have been able to field a more respectable product and still gotten a player as good or better (Veen, Frelick, Miller are examples)

People will point to Mayo as a guy we got from tanking..but that’s completely false. Overslots are signed by every team, every draft.

Westburg, Ortiz, Stowers, etc..none of them are from tanking. 
 

You clearly don’t get Adley (again, they weren’t tanking when they got him) or Holliday if you aren’t tanking. Those are the “unique” players.

[Too Tall]

In my opinion, and to pick up on what Frobby posted above, Elias has played the hand he was delt about as good as it could have been played. Tanking gave us some positional strenght to acquire talent. That's all. Elais has gotten that talent and futher developed what we had when he arrived. Let's acnowledge and appreciate that and hope it can continue. Whether we could have "gone for it" last year is another debate that like tanking, has been discussed ad nauseum on here. We had years of building the other way under PA. Now, I believe we have an archetict that can build. Let's hope he is allowed to finish by current ownership which is another whole debate I plead we don't restart right now. It always amazes me who an OP can evolve around here!

To the OP, fun data and neat to sleep with - now, but there is a long way to go. Let's just beat THE SUX!

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[Too Tall]

How an OP evolves. Sorry, the Old Man transposed!

[wildcard]

I think it interesting that this discussion on tanking  and maintaining low budgets is being had now instead on December when many wanted the O's to spend.