AL team to watch: White Sox

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Understood. We disagree on the talent and type of pitcher that Cease is. 

As far as the MIL guys, they would be very good to get, but the Brewers will most likely be in it this year and not interested in selling.

E. Rodriguez IMO is not as good as Cease and has an opt out. So he is a true half year rental. 
 

If we are looking at things from a “more than this year perspective” (which we should IMO) how does he make much sense? We are going to have the same problem again next year. We don’t have the top end pitching talent in the org beyond Grayson.

I think by this time next year Grayson will be ready to assume the role of a front line starter. And Means will be a solid #2 come next year. I am confident that Bradish will continue to grow into a solid #3. Buying a rental like E.Rodriguez keeps the options open for next off-season just in case the Orioles decide they want to buy an arm in the free agent market. Or we can continue to play the rental game. There are a lot of possibilities for the starting staff on the horizon and keeping our options open with rentals is not the worst way to go about things. I tend to think the Orioles future in the starting rotation is pretty solid, and we don't need to act desperate when looking to make an addition to the staff.

[maybenxtyr]

Cease is a target, but I would start looking for guys that are probably a half season rental. I don't think Elias goes crazy trading prospects. I can envision him making an upgrade... just not like Cease.

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I think by this time next year Grayson will be ready to assume the role of a front line starter. And Means will be a solid #2 come next year. I am confident that Bradish will continue to grow into a solid #3. Buying a rental like E.Rodriguez keeps the options open for next off-season just in case the Orioles decide they want to buy an arm in the free agent market. Or we can continue to play the rental game. There are a lot of possibilities for the starting staff on the horizon and keeping our options open with rentals is not the worst way to go about things. I tend to think the Orioles future in the starting rotation is pretty solid, and we don't need to act desperate when looking to make an addition to the staff.

You mention in the post about next year. I wonder what the plan is for this year? I ask because with our horrid ownership, we may only have Adley for 5 years including this one. So if we don't maximize the opportunity of this year, we are limiting things to 4 more years. I would hate to be in this position again next year and waste another season.

Also curious about the logic that disbelieves in the season that Cease put up and his talent but believes in Bradish and the season he just put up and his talent or in a guy like Kremer.

Do you think in there absolute best/peak season, they could come anywhere close to putting up a 2.20 ERA. Heck, I'm not even sure if Grayson does that! It's very hard for me to believe that numbers that elite are achieved by luck. I just don't see many if any instances in the game where that has ever happened. You have to be AWFUL LUCKY to get results that good!

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think I am overrating Cease. He is a 27 year old All star from last year, who had a 2.20 ERA. I'm sorry but nobody is that lucky. Name the pitchers who luck into sub 2.50 ERAs. He also has 3 post seasons left on a cost controlled contract. Yes, he had ONE bad start yesterday against the hottest hitting team in baseball which pushed his ERA to just north of 4, but that doesn't make him overrated.

I believe that the cost is going to be somewhere around the cost that the Padres paid to acquire Soto. If you don't think that we should pay, that is fine. But we are going to need a pitcher like him in order to win in October. Even if Grayson reaches his potential, we are going to need more than that. And other than Wells being solid and hoping that Means returns and goes right back into form, we simply don't have anything else.

What is your plan to acquire that pitcher?

We are the richest team in org talent in the game. We can replace any prospect/young asset in our org not named Adley and Grayson. Even Holiday and Gunnar have very similar profiles (both are 5 tool, left handed hitting SS with elite plate discipline). I don't want to see either go, but if we had to I would part with Gunnar first since he is more replaceable with a capable fill-in with Urias until Mayo is ready. Holliday, I feel, keeps our window open that much longer.

I didn't say he was lucky. I just want to see more sustained success. And he's had a few bad starts this year.

Edited May 1, 2023 by dystopia

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

I didn't say he was lucky. I just want to see more sustained success. 

Would you not like to see MUCH MORE of that sustained success from Bradish or Kremer before counting on them? 

All I am saying is that Dylan Cease is a much more talented and accomplished pitcher than either of those guys. And the only pitcher in our WHOLE org that rivals his talent is Grayson.

I'm just a guy who believes in betting on talent, not hope.

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Would you not like to see MUCH MORE of that sustained success from Bradish or Kremer before counting on them? 

All I am saying is that Dylan Cease is a much more talented and accomplished pitcher than either of those guys. And the only pitcher in our WHOLE org that rivals his talent is Grayson.

I'm just a guy who believes in betting on talent, not hope.

I'm under no delusion that those guys are better, I'm just stressing that we shouldn't be willing to sell half the farm for this guy.

[interloper]

Kind of much more interested in someone like E-Rod. Won't take a very much for the half year rental, plug him in with Means in the 2nd half:

E-Rod
Means
Gibson
Wells
G-Rod

That's a pretty darn good rotation and you probably only gave up like, Norby and a pitcher.  

[Mooreisbetter27]

49 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hate the make believe trade talk unless there's actually rumors of us engaged with a team to possibly make a trade.  Then it becomes a lot more interesting.

I'll only say this:  If we were trade prospects for a guy like Cease or Burnes or whomever in an effort to get us a great #2 (Cease) or a #1 (Burnes), I'd like to see JA open the wallet to keep them.  I'm really not interested in giving up prospect capital for a one or two year rental and then we gotta go out and try to find a replacement of the guy we just sent prospects for.  I'd love to get a guy like Burnes, that would immediately make us a legit team amongst the Rays, Jays and Yankees but only if we could extend him.  

This is pretty much exactly where I am.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

That's a lot of pressure to put on Grayson in his rookie year and a lot of innings to put on his arm if we make a deep run. Means is a lot of hope to put on a pitcher coming off such a serious arm injury. 

And Wells is better than Bradish, so I don't see the logic there. I struggle with understanding the logic of what you have seen at the Major League level from Bradish to have reasonable expectations that he will be successful against the best teams in October.

You really envision a reality where Kyle Bradish wins us a game in the World Series? I just can't see that. 

I said Bradish & Wells in the Pen.  I would not want either to start a playoff game.  Bradish stuff would be electric out of pen.  Wells would be my long man if a SP fell on his face.  

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Again, people on here are massively overrating Cease. He's had one season of dominance and has been mediocre this year. I'd be willing to trade Westburg, Stowers, and Hall for him but if the White Sox start asking for much more then they need to be told to go pound sand. Cease walks WAY too many batters and I want to see him lower his ERA to 3.30 or lower before I become convinced last year was not just a flash in the pan.

I'll cheer for whoever we get, but also prefer others to Cease in this game.    Cease is not Soto; Manny's service time was 1/5th these 2.33 years guys.

I feel Bedard the most relevant trade comp in the Orioles-oriented database, including the doubt how sturdy an All-Star level performer this guy can be.

I like Hendriks as an Andrew Miller kind of guy if he looks like himself.      

I believe our pitching strategy fundamentally walks-averse, hence DL Hall less than ideally grinding at that life mastery of the game of baseball still.    Hard to picture Elias outbidding the field on this player.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

I'm under no delusion that those guys are better, I'm just stressing that we shouldn't be willing to sell half the farm for this guy.

I hear you and agree with you in that I don't want to overpay for anyone. With all the talent that we have, it would be impossible to sell anywhere close to the farm for anyone. We have the trade capital to meet the demand for any available player in the game, without harming our future whatsoever.

I hope we can get a front of the rotation pitcher for peanuts or pennies on the dollar. I just don't think that is realistic. You have to give in order to get. But the good thing again, is that we have so much, we will be good no matter what!

[Bemorewins]

33 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I said Bradish & Wells in the Pen.  I would not want either to start a playoff game.  Bradish stuff would be electric out of pen.  Wells would be my long man if a SP fell on his face.  

If they are in the pen, who is starting besides Grayson? In a 4 game series and with this being Grayson's rookie year and trying to preserve innings, I can't see him starting more than 2 games in any series. And of course, we are talking about the scenario where he continues to adjust to Big League pitching and grow into the kind of pitcher that is worthy of post season starts.

[emmett16]

 

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If they are in the pen, who is starting besides Grayson? In a 4 game series and with this being Grayson's rookie year and trying to preserve innings, I can't see him starting more than 2 games in any series. And of course, we are talking about the scenario where he continues to adjust to Big League pitching and grow into the kind of pitcher that is worthy of post season starts.

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

If we make it the playoffs I’d be fine rolling with  SP1 acquisition, GRod, & Means with Bradish & Wells in pen.  

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

Cease is a target, but I would start looking for guys that are probably a half season rental. I don't think Elias goes crazy trading prospects. I can envision him making an upgrade... just not like Cease.

I am for that. But a guy like Cease or Alcantra (if he's available) are top of the line guys who help you for multiple seasons and they are cost controlled.

Of course these things come with risk and we are going to have to part with real talent. But I would hate to waste THIS SEASON and not resolve our 1 team weakness going forward. Trading for marginal upgrades would be irresponsible to me in not taking advantage of the opportunity that is in front of us.

We are going to need elite pitching in order to win in any year's post season. And it can't just be Grayson and the rest hopes and dreams. In reality it is going to take talent acquisition. It would be great to get in in the offseason via FA, but with our awful, cheap ownership that is more like a pipe dream. But we can get it from the abundant surplus of org positional talent.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 

 

Ok, I'm sorry. Got it now. You are for trading for a top of the rotation starter, just not Cease. Understood.

If costs wasn't a factor, do you like Eduardo Rodriguez more than Dylan Cease as a top end talent? What do you think about a guy like Luzardo from MIA assuming that Alcantara is unavailable or the cost is too much?