AL team to watch: White Sox

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

I may be wrong but I believe the moon the WS will want in a trade would be something like Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, DL Hall and maybe someone like Basallo.  Is that haul worth it for Dylan Cease?  Does he get us to the promised land more than a cheaper option?  Why do I think the White Sox would ask for that much?  Because, as others are saying here, there is no other young, low-cost elite pitcher available -- and there is no pressure for them to trade him.  They have him for 2+ more years.  Unless he is mediocre to terrible the next couple of months, everyone will be calling the White Sox for him (unless there is another low-cost elite starter made available that no one here has thought of yet).  And even if he doesn't pitch well the next month or two the WS may refuse to sell low on him.  I think most teams trade for "rentals" for this reason.  Who trades highly rated, young, low-cost starting pitchers under control for 2 more years without getting a haul?  Especially when the team is selling rather than buying?  The White Sox are not under pressure to trade yet, making them more likely to ask for a haul that is a "this elite young pitcher is not available to trade unless you overpay" kind of haul.  

I mean while they are at it why don’t they just ask for Adley too? Or wait I have one better, why don’t they just ask for all NINE of our top 100 prospects…lol

I think it may be helpful to look around to see other comparable trades to get an idea of what is realistic. Soto didn’t even land the type of haul that you are suggesting. One of Gunnar or Holiday in a package for Cease is over the moon. Both is a fantasy at best!

[Il BuonO]

On 4/30/2023 at 10:19 PM, oriole said:

I see someone like Cease as too rich for Elias. You’d definitely have to give up someone like Holliday or Henderson. I just don’t see the Orioles doing that. Elias hasn’t been known to make bold moves.

I’d say Giolito is a more realistic target. He wouldn’t cost anyone in the top ten. Someone like Prieto could do it I’m sure.

Giolito could be a good bounce back candidate. Then again, he could be done.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Giolito could be a good bounce back candidate. Then again, he could be done.

If they are actually making an impact move it shouldn't be for a "good bounce back candidate". 

[Il BuonO]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they are actually making an impact move it shouldn't be for a "good bounce back candidate". 

Agreed, I’m just not sure they’re going to be selling off big pieces for a guy with as little a track record as Cease. Don’t get me wrong I like him a lot, but other than last year he’s been just above average (111 and 112 ERA+ in ‘21 and ‘22).

[sportsfan8703]

24 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I mean while they are at it why don’t they just ask for Adley too? Or wait I have one better, why don’t they just ask for all NINE of our top 100 prospects…lol

I think it may be helpful to look around to see other comparable trades to get an idea of what is realistic. Soto didn’t even land the type of haul that you are suggesting. One of Gunnar or Holiday in a package for Cease is over the moon. Both is a fantasy at best!

Gunnar doesn’t have prospect status anymore. He passed that threshold recently. Grayson has 26 more IP to go until he reaches that threshold. 

[EddeeEddee]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I mean while they are at it why don’t they just ask for Adley too? Or wait I have one better, why don’t they just ask for all NINE of our top 100 prospects…lol

I think it may be helpful to look around to see other comparable trades to get an idea of what is realistic. Soto didn’t even land the type of haul that you are suggesting. One of Gunnar or Holiday in a package for Cease is over the moon. Both is a fantasy at best!

Soto was unusual in that the Nats felt some pressure and desire to trade him after he turned down a huge extension.  And also, he's not an elite starting pitcher.  The only recent examples I can think of team trading controlled, young, elite arms at all are when a buying team is trading for a veteran to add that (supposedly) missing piece -- like when the Orioles traded EdRod or traded Hader.  But unlike Cease neither of those guys had proven anything at the MLB level (if they had the O's would have just played them rather than traded them). 

I'd love to hear if anyone can think of a selling team (not a buying team) trading a highly regarded, young, controlled pitcher who is not close to free agency or not in a contract dispute.

[DirtyBird]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Not now, but at the deadline. They no better than 4th place in the NL East and no better than 7th in the NL and that assumes that they could beat out one of the Pirates or Brewers. Because their is no way that they are finishing above PHIL, NY Mets, ATL, LAD, or the Padres.

But they were a 93 loss team last season, so look to be improving and have some good pitchers under team control. So, they are in the middle of a rebuild, not starting one. I would assume they would intend on those pitchers being part of a competitive team.

[Bemorewins]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Gunnar doesn’t have prospect status anymore. He passed that threshold recently. Grayson has 26 more IP to go until he reaches that threshold. 

I know that they don't technically hold the status anymore. Well at least in Gunnar's case and soon to be in Grayson's. But they still hold the value given the age/stage/cost/year's of control/talent profile.

I thought that it was very comical for the poster @EddeeEddee to suggest that the White Sox would ask for multiple players of this profile. No one player is worth that much and definitely not Dylan Cease who has wait for it... ONE ELITE season to his resume and 2and a half years left until FA.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Soto was unusual in that the Nats felt some pressure and desire to trade him after he turned down a huge extension.  And also, he's not an elite starting pitcher.  The only recent examples I can think of team trading controlled, young, elite arms at all are when a buying team is trading for a veteran to add that (supposedly) missing piece -- like when the Orioles traded EdRod or traded Hader.  But unlike Cease neither of those guys had proven anything at the MLB level (if they had the O's would have just played them rather than traded them). 

I'd love to hear if anyone can think of a selling team (not a buying team) trading a highly regarded, young, controlled pitcher who is not close to free agency or not in a contract dispute.

I’d need to understand better what you mean by “controlled, young, elite arms.”   Hader was years from the majors and not well known when we traded him.  Rodriguez was a well-regarded prospect but I don’t know if I’d say “elite.”  He was ranked in the 50-80 range and was having a somewhat disappointing year at the time of the trade.  I can think of many trades involving pitching prospects more highly regarded than those.  For example the Nats traded Lucas Giolito (then ranked No. 25 by BA and higher by others) to get Adam Eaton.

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Soto was unusual in that the Nats felt some pressure and desire to trade him after he turned down a huge extension.  And also, he's not an elite starting pitcher.  The only recent examples I can think of team trading controlled, young, elite arms at all are when a buying team is trading for a veteran to add that (supposedly) missing piece -- like when the Orioles traded EdRod or traded Hader.  But unlike Cease neither of those guys had proven anything at the MLB level (if they had the O's would have just played them rather than traded them). 

I'd love to hear if anyone can think of a selling team (not a buying team) trading a highly regarded, young, controlled pitcher who is not close to free agency or not in a contract dispute.

The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.

The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.

The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?

Blake Snell?  Chris Sale?

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

But they were a 93 loss team last season, so look to be improving and have some good pitchers under team control. So, they are in the middle of a rebuild, not starting one. I would assume they would intend on those pitchers being part of a competitive team.

They like us have an imbalance of talent, only they are no where near as good or have anywhere near the talent that we have in the org.

They have a very good stating rotation with 2 top starting pitching prospects. The problem that they have is that they have no offense or any elite positional prospects. If they are trying to win sooner than later as you propose, I wonder where they might feel that competitive offense will come from? Maybe a team loaded with positional prospects?

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Blake Snell?  Chris Sale?

Yes. Good ones! I'm sure there are more that we could come up with if we really thought about.

I don't think it is an unprecedented idea.

[EddeeEddee]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d need to understand better what you mean by “controlled, young, elite arms.”   Hader was years from the majors and not well known when we traded him.  Rodriguez was a well-regarded prospect but I don’t know if I’d say “elite.”  He was ranked in the 50-80 range and was having a somewhat disappointing year at the time of the trade.  I can think of many trades involving pitching prospects more highly regarded than those.  For example the Nats traded Lucas Giolito (then ranked No. 25 by BA and higher by others) to get Adam Eaton.

The Nationals were a buying team when they traded for Eaton, not a selling team.  They traded Giolito for someone who could help them win "now" -- which is not what the White Sox would be doing if they trade Cease now.  That was part of the point of my post.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

The Nationals were a buying team when they traded for Eaton, not a selling team.  They traded Giolito for someone who could help them win "now" -- which is not what the White Sox would be doing if they trade Cease now.  That was part of the point of my post.

No the White Sox are out of it already, they are 8-21. This season is over for them. They are down at the bottom with the likes of the Royals, A's, Nationals, and Rockies.