What do you think Mateo’s final 2023 OPS will be?

[Frobby]

I’ve been reading a lot of posts by folks saying they think Mateo is “for real,” or speculating about what we should do if Mateo is “for real.”   So, I’m curious what people think the new reality is for Mateo.  

For whatever it’s worth, ZiPS now projects Mateo’s final OPS at .768, which includes his 1.062 to date, and .711 for the rest of the season.  Before the season started, ZiPS had Mateo’s 50th percentile projection at .670, with an 80th percentile projection of .744.   So, ZiPS already has adjusted its rest of season midpoint from .670 to .711, in light of what Mateo has done so far, and the revised full season projection of .768 is well above the 80th percentile preseason projection.  But obviously, ZiPS still anticipates a significant return to Eatth for Mateo, even though he’s much improved. 

So what say you?   What’s your best current guess about where Mateo ends up when all the 2023 season has been played?

 

[interloper]

I just can't see him making that enormous of a leap in a whole season of baseball. I mean come August, do we really think he's gonna be posting a .900 OPS? It's possible! But I'm gonna go with the .750-.799 option which would still be a marked improvement over last year and his career .684 OPS. 

[emmett16]

I went with the safe bet .750-.799 but if he maintains his k/bb rate and keeps putting the ball in play he will blow that # out of the water 

Edited May 1, 2023 by emmett16

[forphase1]

I feel like some improvement may be here to last, though certainly not at the rate he's been experiencing.  I think his final OPS will be around .775.  Still a heck of an improvement over last year, but not the superman outfit OPS numbers he's put up so far this year.  

[RZNJ]

.825

The power is real.  He’s still too aggressive but he doesn’t chase nearly as much.  I think this is who he is but he’s not a 1.000 OPS hitter.   I do think he hits 20 homers but the average will come way down into the .260-.280 range.

[Aristotelian]

I'll go with low .800's. He's got a nice head start. .750 the rest of the way should get him about there. 

[Otter]

Just from watching his at bats, he really seems to have improved on pitch identification and selection, and also looks more balanced on breaking balls.  That being said, I can't forget he had a 2 month hot streak last year and then was abysmal the rest of the year.  I say he ends up between .750-.799...which would be outstanding for someone with his glove and speed.

[owknows]

.950-.999

 

Snortin the Orange KoolAid right out of the packet.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Otter said:

Just from watching his at bats, he really seems to have improved on pitch identification and selection, and also looks more balanced on breaking balls.  That being said, I can't forget he had a 2 month hot streak last year and then was abysmal the rest of the year. 

I can’t forget that either.  Fangraohs did do a nice write up explaining why this hot streak may be somewhat more sustainable than that one.  But, I need to see it happen.  And really, all Mateo needs to do Is have “normal” slumps where he posts a .600ish OPS for a few weeks, rather than falling off a cliff like he did for two long stretches in 2022.   

[SilverRocket]

I guess I'm the crazy voter in this poll (.950-.999) but I think this is not remotely the same as his hot streak last year. The fact that all the peripherals have also improved, along with the batting eye, along with the fact that he's better against all categories of pitches, leads me to think this is real. That and the mechanical change is of the sort that makes it all make sense.

I'm not usually the sort to give the strong answer in a poll (I think Cano will regress, etc.) but this one feels different.

[oriole]

I think the range is like .780-.810 so in the spirit of optimism I chose  the .800-.849 option. 
 

He is obviously a different hitter but it’s foolish to thing he is actually an elite hitter. He’s had nice stretches before, obviously not this nice, but it’s a given that he will have at least one stretch this year where he does terrible. Overall, I think he between his defense, speed, and newfound hitting skills (whether inflated or not at the current moment) that Mateo has made himself a core player to this team for the time being. With that being said, I’d be all over trading him if you can find someone who believes this is real. 

[Frobby]

Given that the season is about 1/6 over, here’s approximately what Mateo would need to do the rest of the season to reach these milestones:

1.000 - .988 the rest of the way.

.950: .928 the rest of the way.

.900: .868

.850: .808

.800: .748

.750: .688

.700: .628

[24fps]

.800-.849.  I think the improvement is real and my only question is whether I'm being a little too conservative.

[Spy Fox]

I picked .800-.850. I considered lower but then I looked for some context on just how rare this 1.000+ OPS in a month has been for an Oriole. 

Jorge's 1.062 OPS so far is way higher than his best month last year (.816 in August). It's a higher OPS than any of Mountcastle, Santander, Rutschman, Hays, or Mullins achieved last year in a given month. The last Oriole I could find with a 1.000+ OPS in a month was Cedric Mullins June 2021. 

The current peak is so high for an extended enough time that I think it's very likely to represent a real quantum leap. Similar to how Mullins, while not actually a 1.000 OPS player, has continued to be a markedly better hitter ever since his Spring 2021 breakout. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Spy Fox

[Filmstudy]

Took .750-.799 and I really like the cautious optimism of the board in general seeing that's by far the top answer now.

If the question was yards for OBJ and you asked on twitter, you probably get 1000-1099 as the most commonly chosen century.