What do you think Mateo’s final 2023 OPS will be?

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t realize/remember but Mateo also had a good run in July/August of 2021. So, this is the third time in his ML career that he has had a month worth of at bats where he put up far bigger numbers than the rest of his career.

Since 2021, Mateo has had 11 months where he had at least 30 at bats.

Of those 11 months, his OPS was over 800 in 3 of the months(including April 2023..or you could say over 800 twice  and over 1000 once if you prefer). It was over 700 in 2 other months (one was 701), 1 month over 600  and 5 months where his OPS was 566 or worse.

That's fair and I think goes to my comments about his mentality. 

The biggest caveat to this (and the 'guess the final OPS' game) is that he wasn't going to get benched previously because there weren't any other options.  Now there is.  If he tanks for a month or two, he'll lose some PAs to some combo of Gunnar/Westburg/Ortiz.

[emmett16]

He’s 27 y/o and is in his 11th professional season.  He has other worldly athletic skills and by all accounts a good head on his shoulders.  He just finished his first year of everyday ABs.  He has grown into his man strength and is about 1.5 months away from his 1,000th MLB AB.  For all those reasons I’m holding out hope that he is realizing his potential and can continue to produce at a high level.  

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That's fair and I think goes to my comments about his mentality. 

The biggest caveat to this (and the 'guess the final OPS' game) is that he wasn't going to get benched previously because there weren't any other options.  Now there is.  If he tanks for a month or two, he'll lose some PAs to some combo of Gunnar/Westburg/Ortiz.

Well I’m not sure that matters to him and what he does but it matters in the bigger picture for sure.

The glass half full look to those numbers is that 2 of the last 3 months have been 2 of his 3 best months and the end of July was also good.  So, he is trending in the right direction in his most recent decent sample size.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He’s 27 y/o and is in his 11th professional season.  He has other worldly athletic skills and by all accounts a good head on his shoulders.  He just finished his first year of everyday ABs.  He has grown into his man strength and is about 1.5 months away from his 1,000th MLB AB.  For all those reasons I’m holding out hope that he is realizing his potential and can continue to produce at a high level.  

Yep. He’s in his peak right now. 

[foxfield]

I think there are many reasons to believe his ending number will be a good number.  I think he will land right around .850 so I picked .800 - .849.

He has had good streaks, but nothing like this ever.  I think the sub .700 choice in the poll is a fools choice and a trick.

With the talent climbing the ladder, he is more likely to lose his job than fall off to the level that would land him at the sub .700 level for the season.  

His success in April has several components that are sustainable...better decision making, ability to go the other way.  

I don't think Mateo will continue to hit at the level he is currently, but really wouldn't be surprised to see his success be the breakout to him being a complete player.  

But again, to keep his job, he needed to succeed, he knew that and worked hard to be in a position to keep his place.

I see adjustments and regression in the coming months, but I think his success is maintainable and I see no way his total production falls off enough to reach sub .700 because he would be removed from the lineup before he did so.  

Edited May 2, 2023 by foxfield

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think there are many reasons to believe his ending number will be a good number.  I think he will land right around .850 so I picked .800 - .849.

He has had good streaks, but nothing like this ever.  I think the sub .700 choice in the poll is a fools choice and a trick.

With the talent climbing the ladder, he is more likely to lose his job than fall off to the level that would land him at the sub .700 level for the season.  

 

This is a really excellent point and one that I didn’t consider.

Yea, I think that would make me change my mind to him being more like a 750 OPS guy because you are right, he very likely just won’t get the at bats to drive it down that far. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He had a similar stretch to this, albeit not quite as good, last year for about a month and he still ended up with a sub 650 OPS.

As I’ve mentioned multiple times, when Mateo went cold last year, he went ridiculously cold.  So to me, the big question is not how long Mateo can stay hot, but how cold will he get when he gets cold, and how long will it last?

It’s not unusual for an .800ish hitter to have a month sometime during the season where his OPS hovers around .600.   But Mateo famously had stretches of 39 games at .483 (May 8 - June 23) and another 36 games at .483 to end the season.   That’s essentially half a season at a sub-.500 OPS!

I submit that if Mateo truly has changed his approach in a sustainable way, it should be impossible for him to run into cold spells that are that long and that bad.   And if he just has “normal” cold spells, that alone will cause a serious increase in his OPS for the season.   

So, we’ll see what happens when he cools off.  For now, I’m enjoying the ride.  Put me in the .800-.849 camp, which would require .748+ the rest of the way. 
 

 

[nvpacchi]

Like many, I'm also being cautious that this could be an extreme heater.  But what I think separates this streak from what happened last July/Aug is:

He's never chased less, hence he's not whiffing as much, which leads to the hardest contact he's made in his career.  The better plate discipline has opened up more offensive avenues for him to succeed, and should hopefully help him from falling into the ugliest of ugly slumps.

Even when he was cruising in July August, he had huge pendulum swings in his whiff profile (red and purple).  Now this April, he's either been above average or a tick below average all month in swinging strike rate.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, foxfield said:

 I think the sub .700 choice in the poll is a fools choice and a trick.

With the talent climbing the ladder, he is more likely to lose his job than fall off to the level that would land him at the sub .700 level for the season.  

I certainly didn’t include it there to trick anyone.  He had a .646 last year despite his various cold streaks.   I do agree that we have better alternatives available this year.  However, the O’s did keep trotting him out there when he was stone cold in September, even with Gunnar on the roster.   And he did have a 3.5 rWAR season despite the .646 OPS, so I think it would take quite a collapse for the O’s to cut his playing time significantly.  I’m hoping we don’t find out.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I certainly didn’t include it there to trick anyone.  He had a .646 last year despite his various cold streaks.   I do agree that we have better alternatives available this year.  However, the O’s did keep trotting him out there when he was stone cold in September, even with Gunnar on the roster.   And he did have a 3.5 rWAR season despite the .646 OPS, so I think it would take quite a collapse for the O’s to cut his playing time significantly.  I’m hoping we don’t find out.

Frobby, I apologize I didn't mean it to sound like I was picking on you.  I think the lowest choice in the poll is more of a trap answer.  Last year is last year...the Orioles were trading away assets and still doing well.  They are competing this year and have seasoned replacements in multiple spots.  

You are certainly correct that Mateo if healthy and playing great defense has value.  I just dont think the same decisions get made in '23.  If Hays goes 2 months without hitting I think someone takes his seat.  Same with everyone.  The good news is that depth is there.  The better news is that the cream should rise to the top.

But I believe the numbers required to tank Mateo's numbers to the level of the first choice would cost him his job before he reached it.  That is obviously speculation...but that is how I see it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Frobby, I apologize I didn't mean it to sound like I was picking on you.  I think the lowest choice in the poll is more of a trap answer.  Last year is last year...the Orioles were trading away assets and still doing well.  They are competing this year and have seasoned replacements in multiple spots.  

You are certainly correct that Mateo if healthy and playing great defense has value.  I just dont think the same decisions get made in '23.  If Hays goes 2 months without hitting I think someone takes his seat.  Same with everyone.  The good news is that depth is there.  The better news is that the cream should rise to the top.

But I believe the numbers required to tank Mateo's numbers to the level of the first choice would cost him his job before he reached it.  That is obviously speculation...but that is how I see it.

Yea, this makes sense. I do think Frobby is right in that he will get a longer leash and even if the numbers tank, he may play more than he should but overall, I think you are spot on with this take.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, this makes sense. I do think Frobby is right in that he will get a longer leash and even if the numbers tank, he may play more than he should but overall, I think you are spot on with this take.

Like I said, I hope Mateo doesn’t slump so much that this theory is put to the test.  But if he does, I’d hope the O’s would be faster to make changes than last year.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I hope Mateo doesn’t slump so much that this theory is put to the test.  But if he does, I’d hope the O’s would be faster to make changes than last year.  

Well, they certainly should be quicker about it. Whether they will or not, who knows. 
 

A minor thing to mention is that they wouldn’t make this change for at least a month and by that point, there are no service time or super 2 issues to worry about. Again, it’s a minor point but one to consider imo.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, they certainly should be quicker about it. Whether they will or not, who knows. 
 

A minor thing to mention is that they wouldn’t make this change for at least a month and by that point, there are no service time or super 2 issues to worry about. Again, it’s a minor point but one to consider imo.

I don’t really understand the point.  Mateo came into this season with 3.000 years of service.  If he was sent down for longer than 20 days at any point this season, he’d earn less than a full year of service time and his eligibility for free agency would be delayed.   But the possibility of that happening is so remote I don’t think it’s worthy of discussion at this point.  

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really understand the point.  Mateo came into this season with 3.000 years of service.  If he was sent down for longer than 20 days at any point this season, he’d earn less than a full year of service time and his eligibility for free agency would be delayed.   But the possibility of that happening is so remote I don’t think it’s worthy of discussion at this point.  

SG may be referring to Super 2 issues for Ortiz???? as a replacement for a failed Mateo ?????