Anatomy of the O’s blown saves (2023)

[Frobby]

So far this year the O’s have blown 7 saves in 16 opportunities, a 61% save rate.  That’s down from 78% last year and ranks 11th in the league, below the league average of 61%.  

However, not all blown saves are created equal.  Some result in losses, some don’t.  Some result from coughing up a multi-run lead in the 9th inning, some results from losing a 1-run lead in the 6th inning.  So, let’s look at the Orioles’ blown saves to date:

April 1: Ahead 8-7 in the 9th, Felix Bautista retired the first two batters and induced the third to hit a routine fly ball to Ryan McKenna, who inexplicably didn’t catch it. Adam Duvall proceeded to hit a 100 mph fastball at the knees for a 2-run, walk-off homer, as the O’s lost 9-8.  The O’s had earlier leads of 7-1 and 8-5 in this very painful loss.

April 7: Entering with a 4-3 lead with nobody out and a runner on 1st in the top of the 6th inning, Logan Gillaspie threw a wild pitch, walked a batter and allowed a 2-run double to put the O’s behind 5-4. But, the O’s scored in the bottom of the frame and eventually won the game 7-6.

April 15: This was a double blown save game.  First, Bryan Baker entered the game in the bottom of the 7th with a runner on 1B and one out, ahead 5-4.  He allowed a game-tying double to earn his blown save.  Later, staked to a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the 10th inning, Gillaspie entered the game with a ghost runner on 2B.  He allowed a game-tying bloop double to start the inning and then two more singles and the O’s lost a walk-off, 7-6.

April 21: Ahead 1-0 in the 9th, Bautista allowed a 2-out game-tying single in the top of the 9th, but the O’s bounced back with a run in the bottom half to win 2-1.  

May 4: Danny Coulombe entered in the 6th inning with an 8-7 lead and runners on 2nd and 3rd, and struck out the next two to bail out Bryan Baker.  However, the next inning, he allowed a leadoff double, a steal of 3rd, a walk and a bunt single to tie the game to blow the lead, which at one point had been 8-1.   After Coulombe was removed, a runner he had allowed scored to put the O’s behind 9-8.   But, the O’s bounced back to win 13-10.

May 6: Ahead 4-3 in the 8th, Coulombe allowed a double that just got under Henderson’s glove and later a 2-run homer to O’s-killer Kevin Pillar, as the Braves beat the O’s 5-4.

So, bottom line, the 7 blown saves have only resulted in 3 losses.  3 came in games that the O’s ultimately won, and another 2 came in the same game that we lost.  All three losses have been pretty painful though, all resulting from leads blown in the 8th inning or later.  And of course, the Boston game will live in infamy for a long time.

 

[JR Oriole]

The Boston game is made even more annoying by the fact that despite all of our wishes for them to be terrible, they are a .600 team nearly a quarter of the way through the season.  Sweeping 4 games against Toronto and winning 2 at the NL champs is no joke.  

Losing last night's game is not a big deal given how insanely talented Atlanta is.  Pitching to known Os murderer Kevin Pillar was the problem.  If he comes up in a big spot today, just walk him and let anybody else on the roster beat you.

[RZNJ]

The Astros were up 3-0 on the Mariners going to the 8th inning last night and two of their top setup men, Montero and Stanek proceeded to give up 7 runs.   Our bullpen has been solid.   Even after the Pillar homer, Coulombe didn’t fall to pieces and we still had a chance.

[Moshagge3]

I guess they still give you the blown save if you only let the Manfred runner score?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

I guess they still give you the blown save if you only let the Manfred runner score?

I don’t know, but I think so.  It’s an unearned run, but that’s irrelevant to blown saves.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I absolutely despise the ghost runner rule.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

36 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I absolutely despise the ghost runner rule.

I agree it feels cheap like little league. Plus with the pitch clock there’s no need to try and hurry up extra innings now.

Make the winning team earn it again if the game goes to extras. 

[dystopia]

52 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I absolutely despise the ghost runner rule.

It is so, so bad I just want to scream every time there’s extra innings. 

[Frobby]

Since I posted this thread on May 7, the bullpen has blown 7 saves, bringing the total to a league-leading 14.  Here are the ones since my prior post, in chronological order:

May 7: Felix Bautista entered this game in the 10th inning with the O's having taken the lead over the Braves 2-1 in the top half of the inning, cashing in their ghost runner.  Bautista allowed a ground ball out that advanced the ghost runner to 3B, then uncorked a wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score at 2-2.   Bautista was able to escape further damage in the inning, but the O's eventually lost 3-2 in 12 innings.

May 18: Austin Voth entered the game in the 8th inning, with the O's leading the Angels 5-4, runners on 1st and 2nd and one out.  He immediately gave up a game-tying single.   Later in the inning, Voth was removed after a strikeout and a HBP, and Danny Coulombe allowed the go-ahead run to score.   The O's lost 6-5.

May 21: In his season debut, Mychal Givens entered the game in the 7th with the O's leading Toronto 2-1, and allowed a walk, a single and then walked a batter intentionally after a ground out.  Matt Chapman lifted  a sac fly that tied the score at 2-2.   The game eventually went to extra innings and the O's prevailed 8-3 in the 11th inning.

May 23: Bautista entered the game with a 5-4 lead in the 9th, got the first batter on a strikeout, but then threw a horrible hanging splitter to Aaron Judge that was deposited deep in the LF seats to tie the game.  The O's eventually lost 6-5 in 10 innings.

May 28: Yennier Cano entered this game with one out in the 7th and a runner on, with the O's leading the Rangers 2-1.  Cano escaped that inning, but in the 8th, he allowed a leadoff single and a two-out, run-scoring double that allowed Texas to tie the score at 2-2.   Fortunately, the O's scored a run in the bottom of the 8th and Bautista came in and got the save.

May 31: This was a double blown save game.   First, Cionel Perez entered the game in the 4th inning, with a runner on 1st and one out, O's ahead 5-3.  After getting Jose Ramirez to pop out, Perez allowed a game-tying 2-run homer to Josh Naylor, then another homer to Josh Bell to put the O's behind 6-5.   The O's bailed Perez out in the bottom of the inning by scoring two runs of their own, but then....

May 31: Entering the game in the bottom of the fifth inning with the bases loaded and nobody out, courtesy of Mychal Givens, Michael Baumann struck out the first batter he faced, but allowed a bases clearing double to convert a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 deficit.  Baumann then allowed two runs of his own.   The O's lost the game 12-8.

So, of these 7 blown saves, 5 losses resulted, we recovered to win 1, and the other was in a double blown save.   On the year, that's 14 blown saves resulting in 8 losses.  We came back to win 4 times, and the other two were double blown save games.   

For some perspective on this, last season the O's only blew 13 saves all season, while saving 46 games for a league leading 78% save rate.   This year they have 14 blown saves (one more than all last season), with 18 saves for a 56% save rate, which is 10th in the AL.   Not good, even though the bullpen ERA is 5th in the league.

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Frobby

[foxfield]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Since I posted this thread on May 7, the bullpen has blown 7 saves, bringing the total to a league-leading 14.  Here are the ones since my prior post, in chronological order:

May 7: Felix Bautista entered this game in the 10th inning with the O's having taken the lead over the Braves 2-1 in the top half of the inning, cashing in their ghost runner.  Bautista allowed a ground ball out that advanced the ghost runner to 3B, then uncorked a wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score at 2-2.   Bautista was able to escape further damage in the inning, but the O's eventually lost 3-2 in 12 innings.

May 18: Austin Voth entered the game in the 8th inning, with the O's leading the Angels 5-4, runners on 1st and 2nd and one out.  He immediately gave up a game-tying single.   Later in the inning, Voth was removed after a strikeout and a HBP, and Danny Coulombe allowed the go-ahead run to score.   The O's lost 6-5.

May 21: In his season debut, Mychal Givens entered the game in the 7th with the O's leading Toronto 2-1, and allowed a walk, a single and then walked a batter intentionally after a ground out.  Matt Chapman lifted  a sac fly that tied the score at 2-2.   The game eventually went to extra innings and the O's prevailed 8-3 in the 11th inning.

May 23: Bautista entered the game with a 5-4 lead in the 9th, got the first batter on a strikeout, but then threw a horrible hanging splitter to Aaron Judge that was deposited deep in the LF seats to tie the game.  The O's eventually lost 6-5 in 10 innings.

May 28: Yennier Cano entered this game with one out in the 7th and a runner on, with the O's leading the Rangers 2-1.  Cano escaped that inning, but in the 8th, he allowed a leadoff single and a two-out, run-scoring double that allowed Texas to tie the score at 2-2.   Fortunately, the O's scored a run in the bottom of the 8th and Bautista came in and got the save.

May 31: This was a double blown save game.   First, Cionel Perez entered the game in the 4th inning, with a runner on 1st and one out, O's ahead 5-3.  After getting Jose Ramirez to pop out, Perez allowed a game-tying 2-run homer to Josh Naylor, then another homer to Josh Bell to put the O's behind 6-5.   The O's bailed Perez out in the bottom of the inning by scoring two runs of their own, but then....

May 31: Entering the game in the bottom of the fifth inning with the bases loaded and nobody out, courtesy of Mychal Givens, Michael Baumann struck out the first batter he faced, but allowed a bases clearing double to convert a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 deficit.  Baumann then allowed two runs of his own.   The O's lost the game 12-8.

So, of these 7 blown saves, 5 losses resulted, we recovered to win 1, and the other was in a double blown save.   On the year, that's 14 blown saves resulting in 8 losses.  We came back to win 4 times, and the other two were double blown save games.   

For some perspective on this, last season the O's only blew 13 saves all season, while saving 46 games for a league leading 78% save rate.   This year they have 14 blown saves (one more than all last season), with 18 saves for a 56% save rate, which is 10th in the AL.   Not good, even though the bullpen ERA is 5th in the league.

 

Appreciate this work Frobby as always.

I guess if they count it that way for everyone it counts the same, but in my mind I don't consider either blown lead yesterday a blown save but simply a lead change.  I mean both occurred before the game could be considered a quality start.  Right?

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Appreciate this work Frobby as always.

I guess if they count it that way for everyone it counts the same, but in my mind I don't consider either blown lead yesterday a blown save but simply a lead change.  I mean both occurred before the game could be considered a quality start.  Right?

I was a little surprised that blown leads by the bullpen before the 6th inning counted as blown saves, too.  In any event, yesterday certainly counted as a crappy performance by the bullpen.   

[Baltimorecuse]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was a little surprised that blown leads by the bullpen before the 6th inning counted as blown saves, too.  In any event, yesterday certainly counted as a crappy performance by the bullpen.   

We are not worthy.   To go back and do all that researching is amazing.  Thanks

[Moose Milligan]

On 5/7/2023 at 10:11 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:

I absolutely despise the ghost runner rule.

Imagine the shape this bullpen would be in if we’d had some of those marathon 13+ inning games. 

[Natty]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Since I posted this thread on May 7, the bullpen has blown 7 saves, bringing the total to a league-leading 14.  Here are the ones since my prior post, in chronological order:

May 7: Felix Bautista entered this game in the 10th inning with the O's having taken the lead over the Braves 2-1 in the top half of the inning, cashing in their ghost runner.  Bautista allowed a ground ball out that advanced the ghost runner to 3B, then uncorked a wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score at 2-2.   Bautista was able to escape further damage in the inning, but the O's eventually lost 3-2 in 12 innings.

May 18: Austin Voth entered the game in the 8th inning, with the O's leading the Angels 5-4, runners on 1st and 2nd and one out.  He immediately gave up a game-tying single.   Later in the inning, Voth was removed after a strikeout and a HBP, and Danny Coulombe allowed the go-ahead run to score.   The O's lost 6-5.

May 21: In his season debut, Mychal Givens entered the game in the 7th with the O's leading Toronto 2-1, and allowed a walk, a single and then walked a batter intentionally after a ground out.  Matt Chapman lifted  a sac fly that tied the score at 2-2.   The game eventually went to extra innings and the O's prevailed 8-3 in the 11th inning.

May 23: Bautista entered the game with a 5-4 lead in the 9th, got the first batter on a strikeout, but then threw a horrible hanging splitter to Aaron Judge that was deposited deep in the LF seats to tie the game.  The O's eventually lost 6-5 in 10 innings.

May 28: Yennier Cano entered this game with one out in the 7th and a runner on, with the O's leading the Rangers 2-1.  Cano escaped that inning, but in the 8th, he allowed a leadoff single and a two-out, run-scoring double that allowed Texas to tie the score at 2-2.   Fortunately, the O's scored a run in the bottom of the 8th and Bautista came in and got the save.

May 31: This was a double blown save game.   First, Cionel Perez entered the game in the 4th inning, with a runner on 1st and one out, O's ahead 5-3.  After getting Jose Ramirez to pop out, Perez allowed a game-tying 2-run homer to Josh Naylor, then another homer to Josh Bell to put the O's behind 6-5.   The O's bailed Perez out in the bottom of the inning by scoring two runs of their own, but then....

May 31: Entering the game in the bottom of the fifth inning with the bases loaded and nobody out, courtesy of Mychal Givens, Michael Baumann struck out the first batter he faced, but allowed a bases clearing double to convert a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 deficit.  Baumann then allowed two runs of his own.   The O's lost the game 12-8.

So, of these 7 blown saves, 5 losses resulted, we recovered to win 1, and the other was in a double blown save.   On the year, that's 14 blown saves resulting in 8 losses.  We came back to win 4 times, and the other two were double blown save games.   

For some perspective on this, last season the O's only blew 13 saves all season, while saving 46 games for a league leading 78% save rate.   This year they have 14 blown saves (one more than all last season), with 18 saves for a 56% save rate, which is 10th in the AL.   Not good, even though the bullpen ERA is 5th in the league.

 

Thanks for the research and posting this.

[Frobby]

6/6:  Tough one tonight.  Entering the game with a 3-2 lead in the 8th, Yennier Cano walked the leadoff hitter, who was hitting .136.   Then he didn’t do a good job of holding the runner, who stole 2B on a mediocre throw by Adley (but I’m not sure a good throw would have gotten him).   Then Cano allowed a run-scoring single to a .206 hitter.   The O’s went on to lose in 10 innings, 4-3.  Ouch.