Rays Series

[dystopia]

Only hope is that the Rays choose now to start regressing to the mean a bit. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Only hope is that the Rays choose now to start regressing to the mean a bit. 

Yes.  I’ve been waiting until this series to break down how the Rays’ lineup is doing compared to last year and their career norms.   Here’s a list showing each player’s (age) 2023, 2022 and pre-2023 career OPS+, listed in order of PA.

Franco (22) 153/118/123

Arozarena (28) 179/125/130

Diaz (31) 194/144/120

Paredes (24) 116/115/97

Lowe (28) 111/103/130

Ramirez (28) 183/120/100

J. Lowe (25) 174/84/87

Margot (28) 94/106/92

Walls (24) 158/64/67

Raley (24) 148/74/58

Bethancourt (31) 129/101/74

Mejia (27) 73/87/90

Siri (27) 125/75/86

Brujan (25) 58/44/29

So, 12 of their 14 players have a higher OPS this year than last, with 7 of them 50+ points higher.   Also, 12 of the 14 are above their pre-2023 career OPS+, with 6 of them 50+ points above (Arozarena is 49 points above). 

Now, some of these guys are pretty young and their improvement may be believable, or at least an upward trend is believable.  But overall, this level of team improvement is completely unheard of and unsustainable.  

Personally, I’m in favor of Tampa starting a course correction right now.  
 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Frobby

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  I’ve been waiting until this series to break down how the Rays’ lineup is doing compared to last year and their career norms.   Here’s a list showing each player’s (age) 2023, 2022 and pre-2023 career OPS+, listed in order of PA.

Franco (22) 153/118/123

Arozarena (28) 179/125/130

Diaz (31) 194/144/120

Paredes (24) 116/115/97

Lowe (28) 111/103/130

Ramirez (28) 183/120/100

J. Lowe (25) 174/84/87

Margot (28) 94/106/92

Walls (24) 158/64/67

Raley (24) 148/74/58

Bethancourt (31) 129/101/74

Mejia (27) 73/87/90

Siri (27) 125/75/86

Brujan (25) 58/44/29

So, 12 of their 14 players have a higher OPS this year than last, with 7 of them 50+ points higher.   Also, 12 of the 14 are above their pre-2023 career OPS+, with 6 of them 50+ points above (Arozarena is 49 points above). 

Now, some of these guys are pretty young and their improvement may be believable, or at least an upward trend is believable.  But overall, this level of team improvement is completely unheard of and unsustainable.  

Personally, I’m in favor of Tampa starting a course correction right now.  
 

They have lost two series so far to the Blue Jays and Astros. Looking at their schedule so far looks pretty similar to the Orioles strength wise. Mostly the teams that are supposedly weak even though the Tigers are playing decent ball. Have played the Red Sox ,Blue Jays,Yankees and Astros.They haven't played the Royals and A's yet and we haven't played the Reds of the lesser teams. Rays schedule gets way tougher on paper to the end of May.

Orioles,Yankees ,Mets,Brewers,Blue Jays ,Dodgers and Cubs. Not as tough as the Orioles schedule after the All-Star break but tough 

 

 

 

[interloper]

Don't give Arozarena anything to hit. That guy murders us every single time. 

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Don't give Arozarena anything to hit. That guy murders us every single time. 

Or hit the ball in his direction. 

[Just Regular]

As we see McClanahan tonight, do you think Grayson can equal his 3.50 ERA, 125 IP rookie season with the early blowups in the bank?

Pitches in opening 10 regular season games of career:

Shane McClanahan - 59 63 80 75 67 | 63 79 77 89 86

Grayson Rodriguez - 83 99 93 92 91 | 77 xx xx xx xx

Grayson's ERA probably would be lower had the team asked less of him out of the gate.

[RZNJ]

My confidence in GRod is about a 3-4 on a scale of 1-10.

[spiritof66]

I've always thought the Rays should have a large home field advantage since everything about the Trop differs a lot from other ballparks, especially the others in the AL East. In seasons when the Rays surprised me by doing well, I've looked at their home/road splits to see whether that was a contributor. Generally it hasn't been much of a factor. 

Last year, though, the Rays had a big road/home difference: 51-30 at home and 35-46 on the road. And this season they're 19-3 at the Trop and "only" 9-4 in real ballparks. I wonder whether the Rays have figured out and implemented improved ways to build on the advantage of playing in, and familiarity with, their peculiar home field.

[Can_of_corn]

I know someone that works there.  Said the crowd for the Yankees was half Yankee fans.

[interloper]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

My confidence in GRod is about a 3-4 on a scale of 1-10.

Grayson is deep in his Early Gausman phase. Flip a coin if he's going to have good stuff start to start, much less command it. When he does, I see it. When he doesn't, I don't see a guy who looks like all that much better of a prospect than Gausman or Bundy honestly. Just based on the eye test anyway. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by interloper

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Don't give Arozarena anything to hit. That guy murders us every single time. 

Walk him all 4 lol 

[tntoriole]

44 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

As we see McClanahan tonight, do you think Grayson can equal his 3.50 ERA, 125 IP rookie season with the early blowups in the bank?

Pitches in opening 10 regular season games of career:

Shane McClanahan - 59 63 80 75 67 | 63 79 77 89 86

Grayson Rodriguez - 83 99 93 92 91 | 77 xx xx xx xx

Grayson's ERA probably would be lower had the team asked less of him out of the gate.

I think Grayson is going to find his mojo soon ..and start reeling off Mussina like starts by years end 

[HakunaSakata]

Game 1. Let's geaux!

 

 

[interloper]

McClanahan is everything Hall wishes he was. Lefty throwing 99 with command and excellent breaking stuff. It's like Hall's miracle ceiling. Hall couldn't sniff this guy's boxers man. 

[Il BuonO]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

McClanahan is everything Hall wishes he was. Lefty throwing 99 with command and excellent breaking stuff. It's like Hall's miracle ceiling. Hall couldn't sniff this guy's boxers man. 

Awesome take.